Al-Nassr 1-1 Al-Hilal Saudi FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Hilal Saudi FC at 43% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Nassr vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Al-Nassr host Al-Hilal Saudi FC at Al Awal Park at King Saud University in Pro League (matchday 9). Kick-off is Friday 1 November 2024 at 18:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Al-Nassr — last 10 games: 6W 4D 0L, averaging 2.20 points per game. Last five: W W W W D. They are averaging 2.50 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Al-Nassr at home: 6W 3D 1L from their last 10 home games — 2.10 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.70 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across their last 10 games, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have recorded 10W 0D 0L — 3.00 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.80 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's away record over their last 10 away games: 9W 1D 0L (2.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Al-Hilal Saudi FC are 0.80 PPG ahead (3.00 vs 2.20), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Both teams have scored in at least 70% of each side's games (from Al-Nassr's last 10 home games and Al-Hilal Saudi FC's last 10 away games). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
The H2H picture is flat: the 6 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for Al-Nassr, 3 for Al-Hilal Saudi FC and 2 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 6 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.8 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 17 May 2024, ended Al-Nassr 1–1 Al-Hilal Saudi FC — a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 2.8 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Al-Nassr in-play and half-time data (last 42 games, 21 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 95% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; they lead at the break 64% of the time; of the 4 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 75%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 57%.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC in-play and half-time data (last 42 games, 21 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 86% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; they lead at the break 64% of the time; of the 4 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 100%; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 76% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al-Nassr 67% and Al-Hilal Saudi FC 55% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Al-Nassr 79% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 71%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Nassr 1.32 xG and Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.55 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Nassr attack 1.116 / defence 0.788 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.535 / defence 0.781. League average goals — home 1.513 / away 1.281. Al-Hilal Saudi FC bring a tight defence (rating 0.781, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Al-Nassr's projected output down. Al-Hilal Saudi FC have an above-average attack rating of 1.535, which lifts their away xG to 1.55. Al-Nassr have a tight defence (rating 0.788), which is pulling Al-Hilal Saudi FC's projected output down. Data: built from Al-Nassr's last 42 games and Al-Hilal Saudi FC's last 42.
Result probabilities: Al-Nassr 32% | Draw 25% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 43%. Fair-value odds: Al-Nassr 3.08 | Draw 4.04 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2.34. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS Yes probability 58% | Total xG 2.87. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.87 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 58% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Hilal Saudi FC at 43% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Hilal Saudi FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.87 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Al-Nassr's last 10 home games and Al-Hilal Saudi FC's last 10 away games) averaging 3.8 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 2.8 goals per game across 6 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Al-Nassr 70% (last 10 home games) | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Nassr vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC | Competition: Pro League, matchday 9 | Venue: Al Awal Park at King Saud University • Kick-off: Friday 1 November 2024 at 18:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Nassr 32% | Draw 25% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% (Under 45%) | BTTS Yes 58% (No 42%) | xG Al-Nassr 1.32 / Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.55 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Nassr attack 1.116 / def 0.788 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.535 / def 0.781 | league avg home 1.513 / away 1.281 • Poisson stance: Al-Hilal Saudi FC (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.32
Al-Nassr xG
Expected Goals
1.55
Al-Hilal Saudi FC xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Al-Nassr vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC FAQs
What time does Al-Nassr vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC kick off?
Al-Nassr vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC kicked off at 18:00 UK time on Friday 1 November 2024 at Al Awal Park at King Saud University.
What was the final score in Al-Nassr vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Al-Nassr 1 - 1 Al-Hilal Saudi FC.
Where is Al-Nassr vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC being played?
The match is being played at Al Awal Park at King Saud University.
What competition is Al-Nassr vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC part of?
Al-Nassr vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC is a Pro League fixture (matchday 9) (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Nassr vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Our statistical model gives Al-Nassr a 32% chance of winning, Al-Hilal Saudi FC a 43% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Al-Hilal Saudi FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Nassr vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Al-Nassr and Al-Hilal Saudi FC will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Al-Nassr vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Al-Nassr's attacking strength (1.12x league average) is weighed against Al-Hilal Saudi FC's defensive record (0.78x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.32. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Hilal Saudi FC's attack versus Al-Nassr's defence, projects 1.55 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Al-Nassr's last 42 games and Al-Hilal Saudi FC's last 42 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.1%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.0%), 2-1 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Hilal Saudi FC Win
32%
3.08
25%
4.04
43%
2.34
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
0 – 1
8.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.32
Al-Nassr xG
Total xG
2.87
1.55
Al-Hilal Saudi FC xG
3.08
32%
Home win
4.04
25%
Draw
2.34
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.36
Clean Sheet
21%
4.71
27%
3.74
Win to Nil
7%
14.52
11%
8.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 8.8 | 6.8 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.5 | 11.6 | 9.0 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 7.7 | 5.9 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.4 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Al-Nassr vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Nassr vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Al-Nassr and Al-Hilal Saudi FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.32 expected goals for Al-Nassr and 1.55 for Al-Hilal Saudi FC, a combined total of 2.87.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Nassr vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 42 outings, Al-Nassr have picked up 2.38 PPG on a 31W 7D 4L record — W-W-W-W-D across the most recent five.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's form line: 39W 3D 0L from 42 games, 2.86 PPG, last five W-W-W-W-W.
Put side by side, Al-Hilal Saudi FC are the form team by 0.48 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Al-Nassr.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Al-Nassr have posted 2.24 PPG from their last 21 home games (14W 5D 2L).
On the road, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have gone 19W 2D 0L from their last 21 away games — 2.81 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Hilal Saudi FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Al-Nassr are averaging 2.83 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Al-Hilal Saudi FC are on 2.95 scored and 0.69 conceded. Al-Nassr's scoring rate against Al-Hilal Saudi FC's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Nassr have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Defensively: Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 45% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 42 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Nassr
Blended
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
Blended
Al-Nassr (Home) vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Al-Nassr
Blended
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
Blended
❓ Al-Nassr vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC Form FAQs
What form are Al-Nassr and Al-Hilal Saudi FC in coming into this match?
Al-Nassr have gone 31W 7D 4L in their last 42 games (2.38 PPG), while Al-Hilal Saudi FC have gone 39W 3D 0L in their last 42 (2.86 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Nassr at home or Al-Hilal Saudi FC away?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's away record (2.81 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Nassr at home: 2.24 PPG; Al-Hilal Saudi FC away: 2.81 PPG.
Have Al-Nassr or Al-Hilal Saudi FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Nassr have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 45%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to December 2021. All of them came in Pro League. The most recent was on 12 May 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 3 Mar 2022, when Al-Hilal Saudi FC won Al-Nassr 0-4 Al-Hilal Saudi FC.
Al-Nassr's record when hosting Al-Hilal Saudi FC specifically: 0W 4D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Al-Nassr
4
Draws
4
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Al-Nassr vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Nassr and Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Al-Nassr have won 2, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Al-Nassr and Al-Hilal Saudi FC last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 12 May 2026: Al-Nassr 1-1 Al-Hilal Saudi FC.
Who has won more matches between Al-Nassr and Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al-Nassr are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 95% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 71% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 27% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 67% of those situations.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 62% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 100% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Nassr 67%, Al-Hilal Saudi FC 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 71% for Al-Nassr and 76% for Al-Hilal Saudi FC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 52% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Nassr home games / Al-Hilal Saudi FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Al-Nassr vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Al-Nassr and Al-Hilal Saudi FC matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Al-Nassr's games and 57% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Al-Nassr and Al-Hilal Saudi FC matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of Al-Nassr's matches and 76% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's.
Do Al-Nassr and Al-Hilal Saudi FC matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 95% of Al-Nassr's recent matches and 86% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Nassr and Al-Hilal Saudi FC share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Al Awal Park at King Saud University, Regular Season - 9, as Al-Nassr and Al-Hilal Saudi FC drew 1-1 in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Nassr 1.32 xG and Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.55 xG, a combined 2.87. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Nassr attack 1.12 / defence 0.79 against Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.53 / defence 0.78, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Nassr 32% | Draw 25% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 43%, with Al-Hilal Saudi FC to win its most likely call at 43%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 75% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Nassr 79%, Al-Hilal Saudi FC 71%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Nassr's trading profile (42 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's trading profile (42 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Hilal Saudi FC arrived the stronger side — 2.86 PPG against 2.38. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Al-Nassr (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.71 scoring average — below par going forward. Al-Hilal Saudi FC (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 3.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.