Al Najma 2-1 Al Kholood – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al Kholood at 58% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al Najma vs Al Kholood encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 22 sees Al Kholood travel to King Abdullah Sports City Stadium to take on Al Najma. The game is scheduled for Saturday 14 February 2026, 15:35 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Pro League games this season, Al Najma have gone 0W 4D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.40 PPG return. Last five: D L D L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al Najma, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Al Najma have posted 0W 3D 6L at King Abdullah Sports City Stadium — 0.33 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 2.11 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 78% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al Kholood stand at 3W 1D 6L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W L L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Al Kholood, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Kholood's away record: 4W 1D 5L from 10 road trips in Pro League this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Al Kholood are 0.60 PPG ahead (1.00 vs 0.40), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Al Najma, 1 for Al Kholood and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 6.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 17 Oct 2025, ended 1–5 with Al Kholood winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 6.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Al Najma in-play and half-time data (20 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 78% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they fail to score in 35% of games.
Al Kholood in-play and half-time data (20 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they fail to score in 45% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Najma 65% versus Al Kholood 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Najma 60% | Al Kholood 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Najma 1.22 xG and Al Kholood 2.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Najma attack 0.890 / defence 1.365 | Al Kholood attack 1.156 / defence 0.938. League average goals — home 1.459 / away 1.342. Data: 20 Al Najma games / 54 Al Kholood games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Najma 21% | Draw 21% | Al Kholood 58%. Fair-value odds: Al Najma 4.76 | Draw 4.76 | Al Kholood 1.72. The model has a clear lean to Al Kholood (58%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.33. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.33 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.22 / 2.12) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al Kholood at 58% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.33 combined xG gives a 65% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 62% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al Najma 78% | Al Kholood 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Najma vs Al Kholood | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: King Abdullah Sports City Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 14 Feb 2026, 15:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Najma 21% | Draw 21% | Al Kholood 58% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 62% | xG Al Najma 1.22 / Al Kholood 2.12 • Poisson strength factors: Al Najma attack 0.890 / def 1.365 | Al Kholood attack 1.156 / def 0.938 | league avg home 1.459 / away 1.342 • Poisson stance: Al Kholood (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.22
Al Najma xG
Expected Goals
2.12
Al Kholood xG
62%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Najma vs Al Kholood kick off?
Al Najma vs Al Kholood kicked off at 15:35 on Saturday 14 February 2026 at King Abdullah Sports City Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Najma vs Al Kholood?
Al Najma 2 - 1 Al Kholood.
Where is Al Najma vs Al Kholood being played?
The match is being played at King Abdullah Sports City Stadium.
What competition is Al Najma vs Al Kholood part of?
Al Najma vs Al Kholood is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Najma vs Al Kholood?
Our statistical model gives Al Najma a 21% chance of winning, Al Kholood a 58% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Al Kholood the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Najma vs Al Kholood?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Al Najma and Al Kholood will score (BTTS).
Will Al Najma vs Al Kholood have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Najma and Al Kholood?
Record (1 meetings): Al Najma 0W | Draws 0 | Al Kholood 1W.
What form are Al Najma and Al Kholood in?
Al Najma (all comps): 0W-4D-6L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-L-D-L-L. Al Kholood (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Al Najma's attack at 0.89x the league average against Al Kholood's defence at 0.94x — combine the two and it projects 1.22 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Al Kholood's attack versus Al Najma's defence, projects 2.12 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 20/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.7%), 0-2 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Kholood Win
21%
4.78
21%
4.65
58%
1.74
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.7%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.2%
Draw
0 – 2
8.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.22
Al Najma xG
Total xG
3.33
2.12
Al Kholood xG
4.78
21%
Home win
4.65
21%
Draw
1.74
58%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.60
38%
BTTS No
2.66
Clean Sheet
12%
8.31
30%
3.38
Win to Nil
3%
39.67
17%
5.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 7.5 | 8.0 | 5.6 | 3.0 | 1.3 |
| 1 | 4.3 | 9.2 | 9.7 | 6.9 | 3.6 | 1.5 |
| 2 | 2.6 | 5.6 | 5.9 | 4.2 | 2.2 | 0.9 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Najma vs Al Kholood?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.4%.
How many goals are Al Najma and Al Kholood expected to score?
The model projects 1.22 expected goals for Al Najma and 2.12 for Al Kholood, a combined total of 3.33.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Najma vs Al Kholood?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Al Najma come into this having played 20 games, going 0W 5D 15L for 0.25 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-D-L-L. The sample for Al Najma is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Al Kholood sit at 0.95 PPG from 20 outings (6W 1D 13L), a run that reads W-L-L-D-W across their last five. The sample for Al Kholood is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al Kholood carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.70 PPG clear of Al Najma — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Al Najma's home form reads 0W 3D 6L across 9 games on their own ground, a 0.33 PPG return.
Away from home, Al Kholood have taken 1.11 points per game from 9 outings (3W 1D 5L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al Kholood come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Al Najma are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 2.05 conceded per game recently; Al Kholood are on 1.30 scored and 1.75 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al Najma have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Last 20 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Najma
Blended
Al Kholood
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Najma and Al Kholood in coming into this match?
Al Najma have gone 0W 5D 15L in their last 20 games (0.25 PPG), while Al Kholood have gone 6W 1D 13L in their last 20 (0.95 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Najma at home or Al Kholood away?
Al Kholood's away record (1.11 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Najma at home: 0.33 PPG; Al Kholood away: 1.11 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al Najma and Al Kholood runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 14 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Al Najma
0
Draws
1
Al Kholood
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Najma and Al Kholood?
From 2 meetings on record, Al Najma have won 1, Al Kholood have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al Najma and Al Kholood last play each other?
They last met on 14 February 2026, when Al Najma 2-1 Al Kholood.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al Najma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Al Kholood see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Najma 78%, Al Kholood 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Al Najma) and 56% (Al Kholood). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al Kholood in 56%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Najma home games / Al Kholood away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Najma play Al Kholood?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 78% of Al Najma's games and 33% of Al Kholood's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al Najma vs Al Kholood usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Al Najma's matches and 56% of Al Kholood's.
Do Al Najma and Al Kholood tend to score early?
Al Najma have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Al Kholood in 56% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Al Najma defy the odds to beat Al Kholood 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Najma beat Al Kholood 2-1 at King Abdullah Sports City Stadium, Regular Season - 22, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Najma 1.22 xG and Al Kholood 2.12 xG, a combined 3.33. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Al Kholood landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Najma attack 0.89 / defence 1.36 against Al Kholood attack 1.16 / defence 0.94, drawn from 20/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Najma 21% | Draw 21% | Al Kholood 58%, with Al Kholood to win its most likely call at 58%. Instead the game produced a Al Najma win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Najma 60%, Al Kholood 65%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Najma's trading profile (20 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Al Kholood's trading profile (20 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Al Kholood arrived the stronger side — 0.95 PPG against 0.25. Form was overturned, with Al Najma winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Al Najma (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.11 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.