Al Kholood 1-2 Al-Hazm – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al Kholood at 52% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al Kholood vs Al-Hazm encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Al-Hazem Club Stadium plays host to Al Kholood versus Al-Hazm in Pro League, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off: Friday 21 November 2025 at 14:50 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Al Kholood have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 5W 0D 5L. Last five: W W L L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al Kholood, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Al-Hazem Club Stadium, Al Kholood have gone 6W 0D 4L this season (10 games, 1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Al-Hazm's overall Pro League record this term: 1W 3D 4L from 8 games (0.75 PPG). Last five: L W L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.75 per game is modest, conceding 1.62 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 8 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Al-Hazm, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Hazm's away record: 1W 2D 1L from 4 road trips in Pro League this season (1.25 PPG). Away from home they average 1.25 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.25 exceeds their overall 0.75 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Form favours the hosts. Al Kholood's 1.50 PPG return is 0.75 points per game ahead of Al-Hazm's 0.75 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Al Kholood have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Al-Hazm in 75%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading Data
Al Kholood goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (8 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games; Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 38% of games.
Al-Hazm goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (8 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games; they fail to score in 50% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Kholood 62% versus Al-Hazm 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Kholood 75% | Al-Hazm 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Kholood 2.04 xG and Al-Hazm 1.37 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Kholood attack 1.213 / defence 1.075 | Al-Hazm attack 0.831 / defence 1.090. League average goals — home 1.540 / away 1.536. Data: 42 Al Kholood games / 8 Al-Hazm games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Kholood 52% | Draw 23% | Al-Hazm 25%. Fair-value odds: Al Kholood 1.92 | Draw 4.35 | Al-Hazm 4.00. Al Kholood hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.41. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.41 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (2.04 / 1.37) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al Kholood are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al Kholood if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 3.41 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 66% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 66% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al Kholood 60% | Al-Hazm 75% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Kholood vs Al-Hazm | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Al-Hazem Club Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 21 Nov 2025, 14:50 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Kholood 52% | Draw 23% | Al-Hazm 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 66% | xG Al Kholood 2.04 / Al-Hazm 1.37 • Poisson strength factors: Al Kholood attack 1.213 / def 1.075 | Al-Hazm attack 0.831 / def 1.090 | league avg home 1.540 / away 1.536 • Poisson stance: Al Kholood (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.04
Al Kholood xG
Expected Goals
1.37
Al-Hazm xG
66%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Kholood vs Al-Hazm kick off?
Al Kholood vs Al-Hazm kicked off at 14:50 on Friday 21 November 2025 at Al-Hazem Club Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Kholood vs Al-Hazm?
Al Kholood 1 - 2 Al-Hazm.
Where is Al Kholood vs Al-Hazm being played?
The match is being played at Al-Hazem Club Stadium.
What competition is Al Kholood vs Al-Hazm part of?
Al Kholood vs Al-Hazm is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Kholood vs Al-Hazm?
Our statistical model gives Al Kholood a 52% chance of winning, Al-Hazm a 25% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Al Kholood the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Kholood vs Al-Hazm?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Al Kholood and Al-Hazm will score (BTTS).
Will Al Kholood vs Al-Hazm have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Kholood and Al-Hazm?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Al Kholood and Al-Hazm in?
Al Kholood (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-W-L-L-L. Al-Hazm (all comps): 1W-3D-4L in 8 | 0.75 PPG | GF 0.75 / GA 1.62 | L5 L-W-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Al Kholood's attack at 1.21x the league average against Al-Hazm's defence at 1.09x — combine the two and it projects 2.04 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Al-Hazm's attack (0.83x) against Al Kholood's defence (1.07x) — and the away total comes out at 1.37.
These ratings are built from 42/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 2-0 (6.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Kholood Win
52%
1.92
23%
4.40
25%
3.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.2%
Draw
2 – 0
6.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.04
Al Kholood xG
Total xG
3.41
1.37
Al-Hazm xG
1.92
52%
Home win
4.40
23%
Draw
3.98
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.53
34%
BTTS No
2.90
Clean Sheet
25%
3.95
13%
7.66
Win to Nil
13%
7.56
3%
30.51
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.3 | 4.5 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.7 | 9.2 | 6.3 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 9.4 | 6.5 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 6.4 | 4.4 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.4 | 3.3 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Kholood vs Al-Hazm?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.4%.
How many goals are Al Kholood and Al-Hazm expected to score?
The model projects 2.04 expected goals for Al Kholood and 1.37 for Al-Hazm, a combined total of 3.41.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Kholood vs Al-Hazm?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Al Kholood's recent record stands at 3W 0D 5L from 8 games, a 1.12 PPG return, with W-W-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for Al Kholood is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Hazm, meanwhile, have gone 1W 3D 4L across 8 games — 0.75 PPG, with L-W-L-D-L in their last five. The sample for Al-Hazm is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.12 PPG for Al Kholood against 0.75 for Al-Hazm. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Al Kholood have managed 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.12 PPG overall — Al Kholood are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Al-Hazm's away record stands at 1W 1D 1L across 3 trips, a 1.33 PPG haul. That's actually stronger than their 0.75 PPG overall record — Al-Hazm travel well.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al Kholood come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al Kholood are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.88 conceded per game recently; Al-Hazm are on 0.75 scored and 1.62 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al Kholood have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 8 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Kholood
Blended
Al-Hazm
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Kholood and Al-Hazm in coming into this match?
Al Kholood have gone 3W 0D 5L in their last 8 games (1.12 PPG), while Al-Hazm have gone 1W 3D 4L in their last 8 (0.75 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Kholood at home or Al-Hazm away?
Al Kholood's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Kholood at home: 2.00 PPG; Al-Hazm away: 1.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since November 2025 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 12 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Al Kholood
0
Draws
2
Al-Hazm
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Kholood and Al-Hazm?
From 2 meetings on record, Al Kholood have won 0, Al-Hazm have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al Kholood and Al-Hazm last play each other?
They last met on 12 March 2026, when Al-Hazm 2-1 Al Kholood.
Who has won more matches between Al Kholood and Al-Hazm?
Al-Hazm have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Al Kholood are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Al-Hazm are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 100% for Al Kholood, 67% for Al-Hazm — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 100% for Al Kholood and 67% for Al-Hazm. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 67% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Hazm in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Kholood home games / Al-Hazm away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Kholood play Al-Hazm?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Al Kholood's games and 67% of Al-Hazm's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al Kholood vs Al-Hazm usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of Al Kholood's matches and 67% of Al-Hazm's.
Do Al Kholood and Al-Hazm tend to score early?
Al Kholood have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Al-Hazm in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Al-Hazm defy the odds to beat Al Kholood 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Hazm beat Al Kholood 1-2 at Al-Hazem Club Stadium, Regular Season - 9, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Kholood 2.04 xG and Al-Hazm 1.37 xG, a combined 3.41. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Al Kholood fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Kholood attack 1.21 / defence 1.07 against Al-Hazm attack 0.83 / defence 1.09, drawn from 42/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Kholood 52% | Draw 23% | Al-Hazm 25%, with Al Kholood to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a Al-Hazm win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Kholood 75%, Al-Hazm 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Kholood's trading profile (8 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Al-Hazm's trading profile (8 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al Kholood 1.12 PPG, Al-Hazm 0.75 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al-Hazm win broke the near-deadlock. Al Kholood (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 3.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.