Al Khaleej Saihat 4-0 Damac – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al Khaleej Saihat at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al Khaleej Saihat vs Damac fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Al Khaleej Saihat and Damac meet at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 14. This fixture gets under way on Friday 9 January 2026 at 13:10 UTC.
Form
Al Khaleej Saihat (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 Pro League fixtures this term — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W L L L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 2.00 conceded. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Al Khaleej Saihat, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium, Al Khaleej Saihat have gone 2W 2D 6L this season (10 games, 0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Damac's overall Pro League record this term: 1W 5D 4L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: D D D W L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Damac, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Damac away from home this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.90 vs 0.80 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Al Khaleej Saihat have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Damac in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 6 head-to-head meetings have produced 3 wins for Al Khaleej Saihat, 2 for Damac and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 1.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Feb 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Al Khaleej Saihat — key trading statistics (46 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Damac — key trading statistics (46 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Khaleej Saihat 63% versus Damac 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Khaleej Saihat 65% | Damac 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Khaleej Saihat 1.55 xG and Damac 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Khaleej Saihat attack 1.063 / defence 1.036 | Damac attack 0.814 / defence 0.978. League average goals — home 1.492 / away 1.487. Data: 46 Al Khaleej Saihat games / 46 Damac games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Khaleej Saihat 44% | Draw 25% | Damac 31%. Fair-value odds: Al Khaleej Saihat 2.27 | Draw 4.00 | Damac 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.80. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.80 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al Khaleej Saihat are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al Khaleej Saihat if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.80 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Al Khaleej Saihat 60% | Damac 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Khaleej Saihat vs Damac | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 9 Jan 2026, 13:10 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Khaleej Saihat 44% | Draw 25% | Damac 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 56% | xG Al Khaleej Saihat 1.55 / Damac 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Al Khaleej Saihat attack 1.063 / def 1.036 | Damac attack 0.814 / def 0.978 | league avg home 1.492 / away 1.487 • Poisson stance: Al Khaleej Saihat (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.55
Al Khaleej Saihat xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Damac xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Khaleej Saihat vs Damac kick off?
Al Khaleej Saihat vs Damac kicked off at 13:10 on Friday 9 January 2026 at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Khaleej Saihat vs Damac?
Al Khaleej Saihat 4 - 0 Damac.
Where is Al Khaleej Saihat vs Damac being played?
The match is being played at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium.
What competition is Al Khaleej Saihat vs Damac part of?
Al Khaleej Saihat vs Damac is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Khaleej Saihat vs Damac?
Our statistical model gives Al Khaleej Saihat a 44% chance of winning, Damac a 31% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Al Khaleej Saihat the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Khaleej Saihat vs Damac?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Al Khaleej Saihat and Damac will score (BTTS).
Will Al Khaleej Saihat vs Damac have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Khaleej Saihat and Damac?
Record (6 meetings): Al Khaleej Saihat 3W | Draws 1 | Damac 2W.
What form are Al Khaleej Saihat and Damac in?
Al Khaleej Saihat (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-L-L-L-D. Damac (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-D-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Al Khaleej Saihat's attacking strength (1.06x league average) is weighed against Damac's defensive record (0.98x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.55. Flip it around — Damac's attack (0.81x) against Al Khaleej Saihat's defence (1.04x) — and the away total comes out at 1.25.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-0 (7.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Khaleej Saihat Win
44%
2.27
25%
3.99
31%
3.25
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.4%
Home win
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.55
Al Khaleej Saihat xG
Total xG
2.80
1.25
Damac xG
2.27
44%
Home win
3.99
25%
Draw
3.25
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.77
44%
BTTS No
2.29
Clean Sheet
29%
3.50
21%
4.71
Win to Nil
13%
7.94
7%
15.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 7.6 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 11.8 | 7.4 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 9.1 | 5.7 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 4.7 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Khaleej Saihat vs Damac?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Al Khaleej Saihat and Damac expected to score?
The model projects 1.55 expected goals for Al Khaleej Saihat and 1.25 for Damac, a combined total of 2.80.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Khaleej Saihat vs Damac?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 46 outings, Al Khaleej Saihat have picked up 1.13 PPG on a 14W 10D 22L record — W-L-L-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Al Khaleej Saihat is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Damac's form line: 10W 14D 22L from 46 games, 0.96 PPG, last five D-D-D-W-L. The sample for Damac is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.13 PPG for Al Khaleej Saihat against 0.96 for Damac. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Al Khaleej Saihat have posted 1.05 PPG from 22 outings (6W 5D 11L).
On the road, Damac have gone 4W 7D 11L from 22 away games — 0.86 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Al Khaleej Saihat are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game recently; Damac are on 1.02 scored and 1.52 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al Khaleej Saihat have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Last 46 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Khaleej Saihat
Blended
Damac
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Khaleej Saihat and Damac in coming into this match?
Al Khaleej Saihat have gone 14W 10D 22L in their last 46 games (1.13 PPG), while Damac have gone 10W 14D 22L in their last 46 (0.96 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Khaleej Saihat at home or Damac away?
Al Khaleej Saihat's home record (1.05 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Khaleej Saihat at home: 1.05 PPG; Damac away: 0.86 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 2 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Al Khaleej Saihat have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al Khaleej Saihat won 4-0 on 9 Jan 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al Khaleej Saihat have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Damac — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Al Khaleej Saihat
1
Draws
2
Damac
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Khaleej Saihat and Damac?
From 8 meetings on record, Al Khaleej Saihat have won 5, Damac have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al Khaleej Saihat and Damac last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2026, when Damac 0-2 Al Khaleej Saihat.
Who has won more matches between Al Khaleej Saihat and Damac?
Al Khaleej Saihat have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Al Khaleej Saihat see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Damac are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Khaleej Saihat 50%, Damac 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Al Khaleej Saihat) and 41% (Damac).
On the defensive side: Al Khaleej Saihat have failed to score in 32% of games; Damac in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Khaleej Saihat home games / Damac away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Khaleej Saihat play Damac?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Al Khaleej Saihat's recent matches and 54% of Damac's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al Khaleej Saihat vs Damac usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Al Khaleej Saihat's recent games and 41% of Damac's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al Khaleej Saihat and Damac tend to score early?
Al Khaleej Saihat have had a goal before half-time in 59% of their recent matches, Damac in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Al Khaleej Saihat run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Damac.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Khaleej Saihat beat Damac 4-0 at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium, Regular Season - 14, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Khaleej Saihat 1.55 xG and Damac 1.25 xG, a combined 2.80. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Al Khaleej Saihat beat their projection by 2.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Damac landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Khaleej Saihat attack 1.06 / defence 1.04 against Damac attack 0.81 / defence 0.98, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Khaleej Saihat 44% | Draw 25% | Damac 31%, with Al Khaleej Saihat to win its most likely call at 44%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Khaleej Saihat 65%, Damac 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Khaleej Saihat's trading profile (46 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.
Damac's trading profile (46 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al Khaleej Saihat 1.13 PPG, Damac 0.96 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al Khaleej Saihat win broke the near-deadlock. Al Khaleej Saihat (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.41 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.55 average — tighter than their form line. Damac (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.91 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.55 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.