Al Khaleej Saihat 1-1 Al-Ittihad FC – Result & Analysis

Poisson model favours Al-Ittihad FC (47%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Al Khaleej Saihat face Al-Ittihad FC.

✍️ Match Preview

Full Analysis

Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium plays host to Al Khaleej Saihat versus Al-Ittihad FC in Pro League (matchday 22). Kick-off: Wednesday 26 February 2025 at 17:00 UK time.

Form

Al Khaleej Saihat (all games): 2W 3D 5L across their last 10 — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W D L L D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

In front of their own supporters, Al Khaleej Saihat have posted 4W 2D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.

Al-Ittihad FC have collected 2.50 PPG across their last 10 games: 8W 1D 1L. Last five: L W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.80 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.

When travelling, Al-Ittihad FC have posted 7W 1D 2L from their last 10 away outings — 2.20 PPG. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

The travelling side arrive in better shape. Al-Ittihad FC are 1.60 PPG clear of Al Khaleej Saihat over their recent games (2.50 vs 0.90). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.

H2H Analysis

Across the 5 H2H matches in our data, Al-Ittihad FC have the stronger record — 4 wins to Al Khaleej Saihat's 0, with 1 draw.

These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.6 per game across the 5 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 27 Sep 2024, ended Al Khaleej Saihat 1–4 Al-Ittihad FC — a Al-Ittihad FC win.

The H2H data backs the away side. Al-Ittihad FC have won 4 of 5 H2H matches, and at 3.6 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.

Trading Data

Al Khaleej Saihat goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 55 games, 27 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 59% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 40%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).

Al-Ittihad FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 55 games, 27 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 47%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al Khaleej Saihat 54% and Al-Ittihad FC 66% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Khaleej Saihat 49% | Al-Ittihad FC 69%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al Khaleej Saihat 1.26 xG and Al-Ittihad FC 1.68 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Khaleej Saihat attack 0.947 / defence 0.987 | Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.249 / defence 0.885. League average goals — home 1.510 / away 1.363. Al-Ittihad FC have an above-average attack rating of 1.249, which lifts their away xG to 1.68. Data: built from Al Khaleej Saihat's last 55 games and Al-Ittihad FC's last 55.

Result probabilities: Al Khaleej Saihat 29% | Draw 24% | Al-Ittihad FC 47%. Fair-value odds: Al Khaleej Saihat 3.47 | Draw 4.17 | Al-Ittihad FC 2.12. Al-Ittihad FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS Yes probability 58% | Total xG 2.95. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.95 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 58% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Al-Ittihad FC as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Ittihad FC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.95 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Al Khaleej Saihat's last 10 home games and Al-Ittihad FC's last 10 away games) averaging 2.7 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.6 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.

Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Al Khaleej Saihat 40% (last 10 home games) | Al-Ittihad FC 60% (last 10 away games).

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights