Al-Ittihad FC 2-1 Damac – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Ittihad FC at 65% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Ittihad FC vs Damac encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Al-Ittihad FC and Damac meet at King Abdullah Sports City in Pro League, Regular Season - 23. This fixture gets under way on Thursday 3 March 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Al-Ittihad FC have collected 2.80 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 9W 1D 0L. Last five: W W W D W. They are averaging 2.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ittihad FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Ittihad FC's home record at King Abdullah Sports City: 8W 1D 1L from 10 Pro League appearances (2.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at King Abdullah Sports City. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Damac's overall Pro League record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: D L L W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 2.20. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Damac, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Damac's away record: 4W 2D 4L from 10 road trips in Pro League this season (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 1.60 in Al-Ittihad FC's favour (2.80 vs 1.20) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Al-Ittihad FC 0W, Damac 0W, 1D.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 17 Oct 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Al-Ittihad FC — key trading statistics (21 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 30% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
Damac — key trading statistics (21 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Ittihad FC 48% versus Damac 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Ittihad FC 52% | Damac 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ittihad FC 2.15 xG and Damac 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.237 / defence 0.857 | Damac attack 0.888 / defence 1.467. League average goals — home 1.184 / away 1.186. Damac bring a strong defensive rating of 1.467 — this is suppressing Al-Ittihad FC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 21 Al-Ittihad FC games / 22 Damac games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Ittihad FC 65% | Draw 21% | Damac 14%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ittihad FC 1.54 | Draw 4.76 | Damac 7.14. The model has a clear lean to Al-Ittihad FC (65%) — a 51pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 3.05. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.05 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Ittihad FC at 65% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.05 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 59% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: Al-Ittihad FC 30% | Damac 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Ittihad FC vs Damac | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: King Abdullah Sports City • Kick-off: Thursday 3 Mar 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Ittihad FC 65% | Draw 21% | Damac 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 53% | xG Al-Ittihad FC 2.15 / Damac 0.90 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.237 / def 0.857 | Damac attack 0.888 / def 1.467 | league avg home 1.184 / away 1.186 • Poisson stance: Al-Ittihad FC (65%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.15
Al-Ittihad FC xG
Expected Goals
0.90
Damac xG
53%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Ittihad FC vs Damac kick off?
Al-Ittihad FC vs Damac kicked off at 15:00 on Thursday 3 March 2022 at King Abdullah Sports City.
What was the final score in Al-Ittihad FC vs Damac?
Al-Ittihad FC 2 - 1 Damac.
Where is Al-Ittihad FC vs Damac being played?
The match is being played at King Abdullah Sports City.
What competition is Al-Ittihad FC vs Damac part of?
Al-Ittihad FC vs Damac is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Ittihad FC vs Damac?
Our statistical model gives Al-Ittihad FC a 65% chance of winning, Damac a 14% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Al-Ittihad FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Ittihad FC vs Damac?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Al-Ittihad FC and Damac will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Ittihad FC vs Damac have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ittihad FC and Damac?
Record (1 meetings): Al-Ittihad FC 0W | Draws 1 | Damac 0W.
What form are Al-Ittihad FC and Damac in?
Al-Ittihad FC (all comps): 9W-1D-0L in 10 | 2.80 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-W-D-W. Damac (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.20 | L5 D-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Al-Ittihad FC's attack at 1.24x the league average against Damac's defence at 1.47x — combine the two and it projects 2.15 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Damac's attack (0.89x) against Al-Ittihad FC's defence (0.86x) — and the away total comes out at 0.90.
These ratings are built from 21/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 10.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (10.4%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ittihad FC Win
65%
1.53
21%
4.81
14%
7.17
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.15
Al-Ittihad FC xG
Total xG
3.05
0.90
Damac xG
1.53
65%
Home win
4.81
21%
Draw
7.17
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.14
Clean Sheet
41%
2.46
12%
8.58
Win to Nil
26%
3.78
2%
61.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 4.3 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 10.2 | 9.2 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.9 | 9.9 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.8 | 7.1 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 4.2 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Ittihad FC vs Damac?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.9%.
How many goals are Al-Ittihad FC and Damac expected to score?
The model projects 2.15 expected goals for Al-Ittihad FC and 0.90 for Damac, a combined total of 3.05.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Ittihad FC vs Damac?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 65%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Al-Ittihad FC's recent record stands at 16W 3D 2L from 21 games, a 2.43 PPG return, with W-W-W-D-W in the last five. The sample for Al-Ittihad FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Damac, meanwhile, have gone 10W 6D 5L across 21 games — 1.71 PPG, with D-L-L-W-W in their last five. The sample for Damac is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Al-Ittihad FC by 0.72 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Damac heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Al-Ittihad FC have managed 8W 1D 1L from 10 games — 2.50 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Damac's away record stands at 4W 2D 4L across 10 trips, a 1.40 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Ittihad FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al-Ittihad FC are averaging 2.19 goals scored and 0.81 conceded per game recently; Damac are on 1.43 scored and 1.33 conceded.
Defensively: Al-Ittihad FC have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 21 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Ittihad FC
Blended
Damac
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Ittihad FC and Damac in coming into this match?
Al-Ittihad FC have gone 16W 3D 2L in their last 21 games (2.43 PPG), while Damac have gone 10W 6D 5L in their last 21 (1.71 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Ittihad FC at home or Damac away?
Al-Ittihad FC's home record (2.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Ittihad FC at home: 2.50 PPG; Damac away: 1.40 PPG.
Have Al-Ittihad FC or Damac been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Ittihad FC have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, Damac in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 10 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al-Ittihad FC won 3-0 on 4 Apr 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Ittihad FC have gone 5W 0D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Damac — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Al-Ittihad FC
3
Draws
2
Damac
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ittihad FC and Damac?
From 10 meetings on record, Al-Ittihad FC have won 5, Damac have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Al-Ittihad FC and Damac last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when Al-Ittihad FC 2-1 Damac.
Who has won more matches between Al-Ittihad FC and Damac?
Al-Ittihad FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Al-Ittihad FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time.
Damac are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Ittihad FC 30%, Damac 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Al-Ittihad FC) and 60% (Damac).
On the defensive side: Al-Ittihad FC keep a clean sheet in 60% of their matches; Damac in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Ittihad FC home games / Damac away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Ittihad FC play Damac?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 30% of Al-Ittihad FC's recent matches and 50% of Damac's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Ittihad FC vs Damac usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Al-Ittihad FC's recent games and 60% of Damac's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Ittihad FC and Damac tend to score early?
Al-Ittihad FC have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Damac in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Al-Ittihad FC edge out Damac 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Ittihad FC beat Damac 2-1 at King Abdullah Sports City, Regular Season - 23, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ittihad FC 2.15 xG and Damac 0.90 xG, a combined 3.05. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.24 / defence 0.86 against Damac attack 0.89 / defence 1.47, drawn from 21/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Ittihad FC 65% | Draw 21% | Damac 14%, with Al-Ittihad FC to win its most likely call at 65%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ittihad FC 52%, Damac 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Ittihad FC's trading profile (21 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Damac's trading profile (21 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Ittihad FC arrived the stronger side — 2.43 PPG against 1.71. The form guide was vindicated by the result.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.