Al-Ittihad FC 3-0 Al-Raed – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Ittihad FC at 52%, yet in-form Al-Raed provide a compelling counter-argument — this Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Raed fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 2 as Al-Ittihad FC welcome Al-Raed to King Abdullah Sports City. Kick-off is set for Monday 16 August 2021 at 18:50 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Ittihad FC have gone 0W 0D 1L from 1 outings — a 0.00 PPG return. Last five: L. They are averaging 0.00 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Al-Ittihad FC have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Raed stand at 1W 0D 0L from 1 Pro League matches — 3.00 PPG. Last five: W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 1 games (100%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Al-Raed have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Al-Raed — 3.00 PPG ahead of the hosts (3.00 vs 0.00). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call (using overall form). Al-Ittihad FC's 0% and Al-Raed's 0% both sit well below average — BTTS No is the strongly backed angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ittihad FC 1.47 xG and Al-Raed 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ittihad FC attack 0.974 / defence 1.150 | Al-Raed attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.315 / away 0.880. Data: 1 Al-Ittihad FC games / 1 Al-Raed games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Al-Ittihad FC 52% | Draw 26% | Al-Raed 22%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ittihad FC 1.92 | Draw 3.85 | Al-Raed 4.55. Al-Ittihad FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.33. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.33 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Al-Ittihad FC as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Al-Raed (3.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Ittihad FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.33 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 41% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Raed | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: King Abdullah Sports City • Kick-off: Monday 16 Aug 2021, 18:50 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Ittihad FC 52% | Draw 26% | Al-Raed 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 44% | xG Al-Ittihad FC 1.47 / Al-Raed 0.86 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Ittihad FC attack 0.974 / def 1.150 | Al-Raed attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.315 / away 0.880 • Poisson stance: Al-Ittihad FC (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.47
Al-Ittihad FC xG
Expected Goals
0.86
Al-Raed xG
44%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Raed kick off?
Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Raed kicked off at 18:50 on Monday 16 August 2021 at King Abdullah Sports City.
What was the final score in Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Raed?
Al-Ittihad FC 3 - 0 Al-Raed.
Where is Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Raed being played?
The match is being played at King Abdullah Sports City.
What competition is Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Raed part of?
Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Raed is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Raed?
Our statistical model gives Al-Ittihad FC a 52% chance of winning, Al-Raed a 22% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Al-Ittihad FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Raed?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Raed will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Raed have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Raed?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Raed in?
Al-Ittihad FC (all comps): 0W-0D-1L in 1 | 0.00 PPG | GF 0.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 L. Al-Raed (all comps): 1W-0D-0L in 1 | 3.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.00 | L5 W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Al-Ittihad FC's attack at 0.97x the league average against Al-Raed's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 1.47 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Raed's attack versus Al-Ittihad FC's defence, projects 0.86 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (1/1 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (12.7%), 0-0 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ittihad FC Win
52%
1.94
26%
3.78
22%
4.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
2 – 0
10.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.47
Al-Ittihad FC xG
Total xG
2.33
0.86
Al-Raed xG
1.94
52%
Home win
3.78
26%
Draw
4.55
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.25
56%
BTTS No
1.80
Clean Sheet
42%
2.36
23%
4.36
Win to Nil
22%
4.59
5%
19.84
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.7 | 8.4 | 3.6 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.3 | 12.3 | 5.3 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.5 | 9.0 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.2 | 4.4 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Raed?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Raed expected to score?
The model projects 1.47 expected goals for Al-Ittihad FC and 0.86 for Al-Raed, a combined total of 2.33.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Raed?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Al-Ittihad FC's recent record stands at 0W 0D 1L from 1 games, a 0.00 PPG return, with L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Al-Ittihad FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al-Raed, meanwhile, have gone 1W 0D 0L across 1 games — 3.00 PPG, with W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Al-Raed, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Al-Raed by 3.00 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Al-Ittihad FC heading into this one.
The Goals Picture
Al-Ittihad FC are averaging 0.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Al-Raed are on 1.00 scored and 0.00 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Ittihad FC have seen both teams score in 0% of their recent games; Al-Raed in 0%.
Defensively: Al-Raed in 100% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 1 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Ittihad FC
Early Season
Al-Raed
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Raed in coming into this match?
Al-Ittihad FC have gone 0W 0D 1L in their last 1 games (0.00 PPG), while Al-Raed have gone 1W 0D 0L in their last 1 (3.00 PPG).
Have Al-Ittihad FC or Al-Raed been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Ittihad FC have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Al-Raed in 100%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Raed runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Al-Ittihad FC have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 16 Aug 2021, when Al-Ittihad FC won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Ittihad FC's record when hosting Al-Raed specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
6
Al-Ittihad FC
1
Draws
1
Al-Raed
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Raed?
From 8 meetings on record, Al-Ittihad FC have won 6, Al-Raed have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Raed last play each other?
They last met on 15 May 2025, when Al-Raed 1-3 Al-Ittihad FC.
Who has won more matches between Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Raed?
Al-Ittihad FC have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Ittihad FC home games / Al-Raed away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Ittihad FC play Al-Raed?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Al-Ittihad FC's recent matches and 0% of Al-Raed's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Raed usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Al-Ittihad FC's recent games and 0% of Al-Raed's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Raed tend to score early?
Al-Ittihad FC have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Al-Raed in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Al-Ittihad FC run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Al-Raed.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Ittihad FC beat Al-Raed 3-0 at King Abdullah Sports City, Regular Season - 2, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ittihad FC 1.47 xG and Al-Raed 0.86 xG, a combined 2.33. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Al-Ittihad FC beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Al-Raed landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ittihad FC attack 0.97 / defence 1.15 against Al-Raed attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 1/1 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Al-Ittihad FC 52% | Draw 26% | Al-Raed 22%, with Al-Ittihad FC to win its most likely call at 52%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 0% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ittihad FC 0%, Al-Raed 0%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 0%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Raed arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 0.00. Form was overturned, with Al-Ittihad FC winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Al-Ittihad FC scored 3 against a 0.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Al-Raed managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 0.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.