Al-Ittihad FC 6-1 Abha – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Ittihad FC at 55% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Ittihad FC vs Abha encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 4 sees Abha travel to King Abdullah Sports City to take on Al-Ittihad FC. The game is scheduled for Saturday 11 September 2021, 18:35 UTC.
Form Guide
Al-Ittihad FC — All Games: 2W 0D 1L from 3 Pro League outings this season, averaging 2.00 points per game. Last five: L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.67 goals per game, with 0.67 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 3 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 33% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Al-Ittihad FC have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Across all Pro League games this season, Abha have recorded 1W 1D 1L from 3 outings — 1.33 PPG. Last five: W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.33 per game is modest, conceding 1.33 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Abha have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al-Ittihad FC are in the better shape of the two on current Pro League data — 0.67 PPG ahead (2.00 vs 1.33). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
In-Play Data
Al-Ittihad FC trading profile (3 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; they lead at the break 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Abha trading profile (3 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al-Ittihad FC 33% and Abha 100% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Al-Ittihad FC 67% | Abha 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ittihad FC 1.77 xG and Abha 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.137 / defence 1.032 | Abha attack 0.851 / defence 1.216. League average goals — home 1.277 / away 1.011. Abha bring a strong defensive rating of 1.216 — this is suppressing Al-Ittihad FC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 3 Al-Ittihad FC games / 3 Abha games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Al-Ittihad FC 55% | Draw 30% | Abha 15%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ittihad FC 1.82 | Draw 3.33 | Abha 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Al-Ittihad FC (55%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.65. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.65 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Al-Ittihad FC as the most likely outcome at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 30% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.65 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 50% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Al-Ittihad FC 33% | Abha 100% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (3 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Ittihad FC vs Abha | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: King Abdullah Sports City • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Sep 2021, 18:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Ittihad FC 55% | Draw 30% | Abha 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 52% | xG Al-Ittihad FC 1.77 / Abha 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.137 / def 1.032 | Abha attack 0.851 / def 1.216 | league avg home 1.277 / away 1.011 • Poisson stance: Al-Ittihad FC (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.77
Al-Ittihad FC xG
Expected Goals
0.89
Abha xG
52%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Ittihad FC vs Abha kick off?
Al-Ittihad FC vs Abha kicked off at 18:35 on Saturday 11 September 2021 at King Abdullah Sports City.
What was the final score in Al-Ittihad FC vs Abha?
Al-Ittihad FC 6 - 1 Abha.
Where is Al-Ittihad FC vs Abha being played?
The match is being played at King Abdullah Sports City.
What competition is Al-Ittihad FC vs Abha part of?
Al-Ittihad FC vs Abha is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Ittihad FC vs Abha?
Our statistical model gives Al-Ittihad FC a 55% chance of winning, Abha a 15% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Al-Ittihad FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Ittihad FC vs Abha?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Al-Ittihad FC and Abha will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Ittihad FC vs Abha have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ittihad FC and Abha?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Al-Ittihad FC and Abha in?
Al-Ittihad FC (all comps): 2W-0D-1L in 3 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.67 / GA 0.67 | L5 L-W-W. Abha (all comps): 1W-1D-1L in 3 | 1.33 PPG | GF 1.33 / GA 1.33 | L5 W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Al-Ittihad FC's attacking strength (1.14x league average) is weighed against Abha's defensive record (1.22x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.77. The same calculation in reverse, Abha's attack versus Al-Ittihad FC's defence, projects 0.89 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (3/3 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.0%), 2-0 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ittihad FC Win
55%
1.82
30%
3.35
15%
6.52
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
2 – 0
11.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.77
Al-Ittihad FC xG
Total xG
2.65
0.89
Abha xG
1.82
55%
Home win
3.35
30%
Draw
6.52
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.09
Clean Sheet
41%
2.43
17%
5.85
Win to Nil
23%
4.43
3%
38.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 6.2 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.4 | 11.0 | 4.9 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 11.0 | 9.7 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.5 | 5.7 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.9 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Ittihad FC vs Abha?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Al-Ittihad FC and Abha expected to score?
The model projects 1.77 expected goals for Al-Ittihad FC and 0.89 for Abha, a combined total of 2.65.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Ittihad FC vs Abha?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 3 outings, Al-Ittihad FC have picked up 2.00 PPG on a 2W 0D 1L record — L-W-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Al-Ittihad FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Abha's form line: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games, 1.33 PPG, last five W-L-D. It's still early in the season for Abha, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Al-Ittihad FC are the form team by 0.67 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Abha.
The Goals Picture
Al-Ittihad FC are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 0.67 conceded per game recently; Abha are on 1.33 scored and 1.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Abha in 100%.
Last 3 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Ittihad FC
Early Season
Abha
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Ittihad FC and Abha in coming into this match?
Al-Ittihad FC have gone 2W 0D 1L in their last 3 games (2.00 PPG), while Abha have gone 1W 1D 1L in their last 3 (1.33 PPG).
Have Al-Ittihad FC or Abha been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Ittihad FC have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Abha in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al-Ittihad FC and Abha runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 3 May 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 11 Sep 2021, when Al-Ittihad FC won 6-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Ittihad FC's record when hosting Abha specifically: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
5
Al-Ittihad FC
0
Draws
1
Abha
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ittihad FC and Abha?
From 6 meetings on record, Al-Ittihad FC have won 5, Abha have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al-Ittihad FC and Abha last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2024, when Abha 3-1 Al-Ittihad FC.
Who has won more matches between Al-Ittihad FC and Abha?
Al-Ittihad FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al-Ittihad FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time.
Abha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Al-Ittihad FC at 33%, Abha at 100%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Al-Ittihad FC and 67% for Abha. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 0% and 0% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Ittihad FC keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Al-Ittihad FC have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Ittihad FC home games / Abha away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Ittihad FC play Abha?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 33% of Al-Ittihad FC's games and 100% of Abha's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Ittihad FC vs Abha usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Al-Ittihad FC's matches and 67% of Abha's.
Do Al-Ittihad FC and Abha tend to score early?
Al-Ittihad FC have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Abha in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Al-Ittihad FC run riot with a 6-1 hammering of Abha.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Ittihad FC beat Abha 6-1 at King Abdullah Sports City, Regular Season - 4, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ittihad FC 1.77 xG and Abha 0.89 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 6-1 for 7 actual goals. Al-Ittihad FC beat their projection by 4.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.14 / defence 1.03 against Abha attack 0.85 / defence 1.22, drawn from 3/3 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Al-Ittihad FC 55% | Draw 30% | Abha 15%, with Al-Ittihad FC to win its most likely call at 55%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ittihad FC 67%, Abha 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Ittihad FC's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Abha's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 100% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Ittihad FC arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.33. That form edge translated into the three points. Al-Ittihad FC scored 6 against a 1.67 average — above their attacking norm. Abha shipped 6 against a 1.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.