Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2-0 Damac – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Damac at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Damac fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Damac meet at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 11. This fixture gets under way on Thursday 4 November 2021 at 13:50 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have collected 2.00 PPG across 8 Pro League outings this season: 4W 4D 0L. Last five: W D D W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.62 goals per game, with 1.12 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 8 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 75% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Al-Hilal Saudi FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium this season: 3W 1D 0L from 4 home games — 2.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.75 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 2 clean sheets from 4 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium. Their home PPG of 2.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.00 — Al-Hilal Saudi FC are significantly better at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Damac (all games): 6W 3D 1L across 10 Pro League outings this term — 2.10 points per game. Last five: W W D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Damac, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Damac's away record: 3W 1D 1L from 5 road trips in Pro League this season (2.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 2 clean sheets from 5 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 2.00 vs 2.10 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading
Al-Hilal Saudi FC half-time and goal-timing data (8 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 25% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Damac half-time and goal-timing data (8 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al-Hilal Saudi FC 75% and Damac 50% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Al-Hilal Saudi FC 50% | Damac 12%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.21 xG and Damac 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.068 / defence 1.197 | Damac attack 1.069 / defence 1.003. League average goals — home 1.133 / away 1.089. Data: 8 Al-Hilal Saudi FC games / 10 Damac games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 32% | Draw 27% | Damac 40%. Fair-value odds: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 3.12 | Draw 3.70 | Damac 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.61. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.61 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Damac at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Damac if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.61 combined xG gives a 48% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates corroborate: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 50% | Damac 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Damac | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 4 Nov 2021, 13:50 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 32% | Draw 27% | Damac 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 53% | xG Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.21 / Damac 1.39 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.068 / def 1.197 | Damac attack 1.069 / def 1.003 | league avg home 1.133 / away 1.089 • Poisson stance: Damac (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
Al-Hilal Saudi FC xG
Expected Goals
1.39
Damac xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Damac kick off?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Damac kicked off at 13:50 on Thursday 4 November 2021 at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Damac?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2 - 0 Damac.
Where is Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Damac being played?
The match is being played at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium.
What competition is Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Damac part of?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Damac is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Damac?
Our statistical model gives Al-Hilal Saudi FC a 32% chance of winning, Damac a 40% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Damac the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Damac?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Damac will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Damac have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Damac?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Damac in?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC (all comps): 4W-4D-0L in 8 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.62 / GA 1.12 | L5 W-D-D-W-D. Damac (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Al-Hilal Saudi FC's attack at 1.07x the league average against Damac's defence at 1.00x — combine the two and it projects 1.21 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Damac's attack (1.07x) against Al-Hilal Saudi FC's defence (1.20x) — and the away total comes out at 1.39.
These ratings are built from 8/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.0%), 1-2 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Damac Win
32%
3.12
27%
3.64
40%
2.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.3%
Away win
1 – 0
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
Al-Hilal Saudi FC xG
Total xG
2.61
1.39
Damac xG
3.12
32%
Home win
3.64
27%
Draw
2.47
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.87
47%
BTTS No
2.15
Clean Sheet
25%
4.03
30%
3.37
Win to Nil
8%
12.57
12%
8.32
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 10.3 | 7.2 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 12.5 | 8.7 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 7.6 | 5.3 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.1 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Damac?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Damac expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Al-Hilal Saudi FC and 1.39 for Damac, a combined total of 2.61.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Damac?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 8 outings, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have picked up 2.00 PPG on a 4W 4D 0L record — W-D-D-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Al-Hilal Saudi FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Damac's form line: 5W 3D 0L from 8 games, 2.25 PPG, last five W-W-D-W-W. The sample for Damac is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 2.00 PPG for Al-Hilal Saudi FC against 2.25 for Damac. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have posted 2.50 PPG from 4 outings (3W 1D 0L). That's noticeably better than their 2.00 PPG overall — Al-Hilal Saudi FC are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Damac have gone 3W 1D 0L from 4 away games — 2.50 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Al-Hilal Saudi FC are averaging 1.62 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; Damac are on 1.50 scored and 0.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Hilal Saudi FC have seen both teams score in 75% of their recent games.
Defensively: Damac in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 8 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
Blended
Damac
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Damac in coming into this match?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have gone 4W 4D 0L in their last 8 games (2.00 PPG), while Damac have gone 5W 3D 0L in their last 8 (2.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Hilal Saudi FC at home or Damac away?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's home record (2.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Hilal Saudi FC at home: 2.50 PPG; Damac away: 2.50 PPG.
Have Al-Hilal Saudi FC or Damac been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Damac in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 28 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have gone 4W 1D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Damac — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
3
Draws
0
Damac
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Damac?
From 10 meetings on record, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have won 7, Damac have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Damac last play each other?
They last met on 28 April 2026, when Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1-0 Damac.
Who has won more matches between Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Damac?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Al-Hilal Saudi FC tend to start slowly — only 25% of their games have a goal by half-time. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Damac see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Hilal Saudi FC 50%, Damac 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Al-Hilal Saudi FC) and 25% (Damac).
On the defensive side: Al-Hilal Saudi FC keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Damac in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Hilal Saudi FC home games / Damac away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Hilal Saudi FC play Damac?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's recent matches and 50% of Damac's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Damac usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's recent games and 25% of Damac's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Damac tend to score early?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have had a goal before half-time in 25% of their recent matches, Damac in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Damac.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Hilal Saudi FC beat Damac 2-0 at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium, Regular Season - 11, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.21 xG and Damac 1.39 xG, a combined 2.61. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Damac landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.07 / defence 1.20 against Damac attack 1.07 / defence 1.00, drawn from 8/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Hilal Saudi FC 32% | Draw 27% | Damac 40%, with Damac to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Al-Hilal Saudi FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 31% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Hilal Saudi FC 50%, Damac 12%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's trading profile (8 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did not.
Damac's trading profile (8 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2.00 PPG, Damac 2.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al-Hilal Saudi FC win broke the near-deadlock. Al-Hilal Saudi FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Damac (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.75 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.