Al-Hazm 3-2 Al Najma – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Hazm at 38% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Hazm vs Al Najma encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 15 as Al-Hazm welcome Al Najma to Al-Hazem Club Stadium. Kick-off is set for Monday 12 January 2026 at 15:10 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Hazm have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: W D W L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al-Hazm, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Hazm's form when playing at home: 0W 1D 4L across 5 games at Al-Hazem Club Stadium this term (0.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.40 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.20 lags behind their overall 1.10 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Al-Hazem Club Stadium this season.
Al Najma — All Games: 0W 2D 8L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 0.20 PPG. Last five: D L L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al Najma, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Najma's away record: 0W 1D 6L from 7 road trips in Pro League this season (0.14 PPG). Away from home they average 0.71 goals scored and 2.14 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 71% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Al-Hazm are in the better shape of the two on current Pro League data — 0.90 PPG ahead (1.10 vs 0.20). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
In-Play Data
Al-Hazm trading profile (13 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
Al Najma trading profile (13 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al-Hazm 54% and Al Najma 69% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Hazm 54% | Al Najma 69%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Hazm 1.23 xG and Al Najma 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Hazm attack 0.645 / defence 1.257 | Al Najma attack 0.615 / defence 1.290. League average goals — home 1.474 / away 1.461. Al-Hazm's attack strength of 0.645 is below the league average — the 1.23 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Al Najma bring a strong defensive rating of 1.290 — this is suppressing Al-Hazm's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 13 Al-Hazm games / 13 Al Najma games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Hazm 38% | Draw 28% | Al Najma 34%. Fair-value odds: Al-Hazm 2.63 | Draw 3.57 | Al Najma 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.36. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.36 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Al-Hazm as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Hazm offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.36 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 42% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. Form rates are neutral: Al-Hazm 40% | Al Najma 71%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Hazm vs Al Najma | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Al-Hazem Club Stadium • Kick-off: Monday 12 Jan 2026, 15:10 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Hazm 38% | Draw 28% | Al Najma 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 48% | xG Al-Hazm 1.23 / Al Najma 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Hazm attack 0.645 / def 1.257 | Al Najma attack 0.615 / def 1.290 | league avg home 1.474 / away 1.461 • Poisson stance: Al-Hazm (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.23
Al-Hazm xG
Expected Goals
1.13
Al Najma xG
48%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Hazm vs Al Najma kick off?
Al-Hazm vs Al Najma kicked off at 15:10 on Monday 12 January 2026 at Al-Hazem Club Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Hazm vs Al Najma?
Al-Hazm 3 - 2 Al Najma.
Where is Al-Hazm vs Al Najma being played?
The match is being played at Al-Hazem Club Stadium.
What competition is Al-Hazm vs Al Najma part of?
Al-Hazm vs Al Najma is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Hazm vs Al Najma?
Our statistical model gives Al-Hazm a 38% chance of winning, Al Najma a 34% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Al-Hazm the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Hazm vs Al Najma?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Al-Hazm and Al Najma will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Hazm vs Al Najma have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Hazm and Al Najma?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Al-Hazm and Al Najma in?
Al-Hazm (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-D-W-L-L. Al Najma (all comps): 0W-2D-8L in 10 | 0.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.30 | L5 D-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Al-Hazm's attack rating (0.65) and Al Najma's defence rating (1.29), the model arrives at 1.23 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Al Najma's attack versus Al-Hazm's defence, projects 1.13 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 13/13 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.2%), 1-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Hazm Win
38%
2.60
28%
3.58
34%
2.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.6%
Home win
0 – 1
10.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.23
Al-Hazm xG
Total xG
2.36
1.13
Al Najma xG
2.60
38%
Home win
3.58
28%
Draw
2.97
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.09
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
32%
3.09
29%
3.41
Win to Nil
12%
8.05
10%
10.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.5 | 10.7 | 6.0 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.6 | 13.1 | 7.4 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 8.1 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.3 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Hazm vs Al Najma?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Al-Hazm and Al Najma expected to score?
The model projects 1.23 expected goals for Al-Hazm and 1.13 for Al Najma, a combined total of 2.36.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Hazm vs Al Najma?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Al-Hazm come into this having played 13 games, going 3W 4D 6L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-L-L. The sample for Al-Hazm is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Al Najma sit at 0.15 PPG from 13 outings (0W 2D 11L), a run that reads D-L-L-D-L across their last five. The sample for Al Najma is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Hazm carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.85 PPG clear of Al Najma — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Al-Hazm's home form reads 0W 1D 4L across 5 games on their own ground, a 0.20 PPG return. That actually lags their 1.00 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
Away from home, Al Najma have taken 0.20 points per game from 5 outings (0W 1D 4L).
Goals in Recent Form
Al-Hazm are averaging 0.85 goals scored and 1.54 conceded per game recently; Al Najma are on 1.00 scored and 2.23 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al Najma in 69%.
Last 13 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Hazm
Blended
Al Najma
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Hazm and Al Najma in coming into this match?
Al-Hazm have gone 3W 4D 6L in their last 13 games (1.00 PPG), while Al Najma have gone 0W 2D 11L in their last 13 (0.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Hazm at home or Al Najma away?
Al-Hazm's home record (0.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Hazm at home: 0.20 PPG; Al Najma away: 0.20 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to January 2026. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 9 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Al-Hazm
1
Draws
0
Al Najma
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Hazm and Al Najma?
From 2 meetings on record, Al-Hazm have won 1, Al Najma have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al-Hazm and Al Najma last play each other?
They last met on 9 May 2026, when Al Najma 2-2 Al-Hazm.
Who has won more matches between Al-Hazm and Al Najma?
Al-Hazm have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al-Hazm see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches.
Al Najma see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Hazm 40%, Al Najma 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Al-Hazm) and 60% (Al Najma).
On the defensive side: Al-Hazm have failed to score in 60% of games; Al Najma in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Hazm home games / Al Najma away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Hazm play Al Najma?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Al-Hazm's recent matches and 60% of Al Najma's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Hazm vs Al Najma usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Al-Hazm's recent games and 60% of Al Najma's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Prediction vindicated as Al-Hazm edge out Al Najma 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Hazm beat Al Najma 3-2 at Al-Hazem Club Stadium, Regular Season - 15, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Hazm 1.23 xG and Al Najma 1.13 xG, a combined 2.36. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Al-Hazm beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Al Najma outscored their 1.13 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Hazm attack 0.65 / defence 1.26 against Al Najma attack 0.61 / defence 1.29, drawn from 13/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Hazm 38% | Draw 28% | Al Najma 34%, with Al-Hazm to win its most likely call at 38%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Hazm 54%, Al Najma 69%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Hazm's trading profile (13 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Al Najma's trading profile (13 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Hazm arrived the stronger side — 1.00 PPG against 0.15. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Al-Hazm (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.40 average — above their attacking norm. Al Najma (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.60 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.