Al-Hazm 1-1 Al-Ittihad FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Ittihad FC at 71% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Hazm vs Al-Ittihad FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 10 sees Al-Ittihad FC travel to Al-Hazem Club Stadium to take on Al-Hazm. The game is scheduled for Tuesday 24 February 2026, 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Hazm stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L D L W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.50 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al-Hazm, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Hazm at Al-Hazem Club Stadium this season: 3W 1D 6L from 10 home games — 1.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Al-Ittihad FC — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D W L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ittihad FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Ittihad FC away from home this season: 3W 5D 2L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Al-Hazm 1.10 PPG, Al-Ittihad FC 1.50 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Al-Hazm register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Al-Ittihad FC in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
Despite the anticipated home advantage, Al-Ittihad FC have the better historical record — 3 wins from 4 previous contests against 0 for Al-Hazm.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 4 meetings have averaged 3.2 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 20 Apr 2024, ended 2–3 with Al-Ittihad FC winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Al-Ittihad FC have won 3 of 4 previous encounters, and at 3.2 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Data
Al-Hazm trading profile (22 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 70% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
Al-Ittihad FC trading profile (22 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Hazm 59% versus Al-Ittihad FC 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Hazm 64% | Al-Ittihad FC 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Hazm 1.15 xG and Al-Ittihad FC 2.79 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Hazm attack 0.823 / defence 1.639 | Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.234 / defence 0.933. League average goals — home 1.491 / away 1.378. Al-Ittihad FC have an above-average attack strength of 1.234 — the away xG of 2.79 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 22 Al-Hazm games / 56 Al-Ittihad FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Hazm 13% | Draw 16% | Al-Ittihad FC 71%. Fair-value odds: Al-Hazm 7.69 | Draw 6.25 | Al-Ittihad FC 1.41. The model has a clear lean to Al-Ittihad FC (71%) — a 58pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 75% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.93. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 75% — a total xG of 3.93 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.15 / 2.79) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Ittihad FC at 71% — clear model lean.
The Poisson model projects 3.93 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 75% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 64% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Al-Hazm 60% | Al-Ittihad FC 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Hazm vs Al-Ittihad FC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Al-Hazem Club Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 24 Feb 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Hazm 13% | Draw 16% | Al-Ittihad FC 71% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 75% | BTTS 64% | xG Al-Hazm 1.15 / Al-Ittihad FC 2.79 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Hazm attack 0.823 / def 1.639 | Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.234 / def 0.933 | league avg home 1.491 / away 1.378 • Poisson stance: Al-Ittihad FC (71%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.15
Al-Hazm xG
Expected Goals
2.79
Al-Ittihad FC xG
64%
BTTS
90%
Over 1.5
75%
Over 2.5
55%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Hazm vs Al-Ittihad FC kick off?
Al-Hazm vs Al-Ittihad FC kicked off at 19:00 on Tuesday 24 February 2026 at Al-Hazem Club Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Hazm vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Al-Hazm 1 - 1 Al-Ittihad FC.
Where is Al-Hazm vs Al-Ittihad FC being played?
The match is being played at Al-Hazem Club Stadium.
What competition is Al-Hazm vs Al-Ittihad FC part of?
Al-Hazm vs Al-Ittihad FC is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Hazm vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Our statistical model gives Al-Hazm a 13% chance of winning, Al-Ittihad FC a 71% chance, and a 16% chance of a draw — making Al-Ittihad FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Hazm vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Al-Hazm and Al-Ittihad FC will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Hazm vs Al-Ittihad FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 75%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Hazm and Al-Ittihad FC?
Record (4 meetings): Al-Hazm 0W | Draws 1 | Al-Ittihad FC 3W.
What form are Al-Hazm and Al-Ittihad FC in?
Al-Hazm (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.50 | L5 L-D-L-W-L. Al-Ittihad FC (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Al-Hazm's attacking strength (0.82x league average) is weighed against Al-Ittihad FC's defensive record (0.93x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.15. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Ittihad FC's attack versus Al-Hazm's defence, projects 2.79 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 22/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-2, at 8.7%. Close behind: 1-3 (8.1%), 0-2 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 24% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ittihad FC Win
13%
7.78
16%
6.37
71%
1.40
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
8.7%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 3
8.1%
Away win
0 – 2
7.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.15
Al-Hazm xG
Total xG
3.93
2.79
Al-Ittihad FC xG
7.78
13%
Home win
6.37
16%
Draw
1.40
71%
Away win
Goals Markets
90%
Over 1.5
1.11
10%
Under 1.5
10.00
75%
Over 2.5
1.33
25%
Under 2.5
4.00
55%
Over 3.5
1.82
45%
Under 3.5
2.22
36%
Over 4.5
2.78
64%
Under 4.5
1.56
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.56
36%
BTTS No
2.79
Clean Sheet
6%
16.25
32%
3.14
Win to Nil
1%
126.45
23%
4.40
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.0 | 5.5 | 7.6 | 7.1 | 4.9 | 2.7 |
| 1 | 2.2 | 6.3 | 8.7 | 8.1 | 5.6 | 3.1 |
| 2 | 1.3 | 3.6 | 5.0 | 4.6 | 3.2 | 1.8 |
| 3 | 0.5 | 1.4 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.7 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Hazm vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.7%.
How many goals are Al-Hazm and Al-Ittihad FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.15 expected goals for Al-Hazm and 2.79 for Al-Ittihad FC, a combined total of 3.93.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Hazm vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 71%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 22 outings, Al-Hazm have picked up 1.09 PPG on a 6W 6D 10L record — L-D-L-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Al-Hazm is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Ittihad FC's form line: 11W 5D 6L from 22 games, 1.73 PPG, last five D-W-L-W-D. The sample for Al-Ittihad FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Al-Ittihad FC are the form team by 0.64 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Al-Hazm.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Al-Hazm have posted 1.00 PPG from 10 outings (3W 1D 6L).
On the road, Al-Ittihad FC have gone 3W 5D 2L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Al-Hazm are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.91 conceded per game recently; Al-Ittihad FC are on 1.68 scored and 1.23 conceded.
Last 22 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Hazm
Blended
Al-Ittihad FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Hazm and Al-Ittihad FC in coming into this match?
Al-Hazm have gone 6W 6D 10L in their last 22 games (1.09 PPG), while Al-Ittihad FC have gone 11W 5D 6L in their last 22 (1.73 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Hazm at home or Al-Ittihad FC away?
Al-Ittihad FC's away record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Hazm at home: 1.00 PPG; Al-Ittihad FC away: 1.40 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al-Hazm and Al-Ittihad FC runs to 7 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 24 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Al-Ittihad FC have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 18 Mar 2022, when Al-Ittihad FC won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Hazm's record when hosting Al-Ittihad FC specifically: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
0
Al-Hazm
2
Draws
5
Al-Ittihad FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Hazm and Al-Ittihad FC?
From 7 meetings on record, Al-Hazm have won 0, Al-Ittihad FC have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al-Hazm and Al-Ittihad FC last play each other?
They last met on 24 August 2026, when Al-Ittihad FC 3-2 Al-Hazm.
Who has won more matches between Al-Hazm and Al-Ittihad FC?
Al-Ittihad FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al-Hazm see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches.
Al-Ittihad FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 30% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Al-Hazm at 60%, Al-Ittihad FC at 70%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 70% for Al-Hazm and 50% for Al-Ittihad FC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Hazm have failed to score in 40% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Hazm home games / Al-Ittihad FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Hazm play Al-Ittihad FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Al-Hazm's games and 70% of Al-Ittihad FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Hazm vs Al-Ittihad FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of Al-Hazm's matches and 50% of Al-Ittihad FC's.
Do Al-Hazm and Al-Ittihad FC tend to score early?
Al-Hazm have had a goal before half-time in 40% of their recent matches, Al-Ittihad FC in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Hazm and Al-Ittihad FC share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Hazm and Al-Ittihad FC finished level at 1-1 at Al-Hazem Club Stadium, Regular Season - 10, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Hazm 1.15 xG and Al-Ittihad FC 2.79 xG, a combined 3.93. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Al-Ittihad FC landed 1.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Hazm attack 0.82 / defence 1.64 against Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.23 / defence 0.93, drawn from 22/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Hazm 13% | Draw 16% | Al-Ittihad FC 71%, with Al-Ittihad FC to win its most likely call at 71%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 16% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 75%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 90% and landed. Over 3.5 was 55% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Hazm 64%, Al-Ittihad FC 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Hazm's trading profile (22 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Al-Ittihad FC's trading profile (22 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Ittihad FC arrived the stronger side — 1.73 PPG against 1.09. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Al-Hazm (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.30 average — tighter than their form line. Al-Ittihad FC (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.80 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.