Al-Hazm vs Al-Faisaly FC – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Hazm at 49% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Hazm vs Al-Faisaly FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Al-Hazm host Al-Faisaly FC at Al-Hazem Club Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 22. Kick-off is scheduled for Thursday 11 March 2027 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Al-Hazm — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Pro League outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: L L D D W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Al-Hazm have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Al-Hazm have posted 6W 2D 2L at Al-Hazem Club Stadium — 2.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Al-Hazm are significantly better at Al-Hazem Club Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Faisaly FC have recorded 0W 3D 3L from 6 outings — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L D L D D. Their scoring rate of 0.67 per game is modest, conceding 1.67 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 6 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Al-Faisaly FC have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al-Faisaly FC's away record: 0W 1D 2L from 3 road trips in Pro League this season (0.33 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.33 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Al-Hazm carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.70 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.20 vs 0.50. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Al-Hazm have won 0, Al-Faisaly FC 1, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The last 3 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 0.3 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 5 Sep 2026, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.3 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Al-Hazm in-play tendencies (6 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Al-Faisaly FC in-play tendencies (6 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games; they fail to score in 50% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Hazm 50% versus Al-Faisaly FC 50%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Al-Hazm 33% | Al-Faisaly FC 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Hazm 1.46 xG and Al-Faisaly FC 0.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Hazm attack 0.868 / defence 0.854 | Al-Faisaly FC attack 0.774 / defence 1.253. League average goals — home 1.339 / away 1.286. Al-Faisaly FC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.253 — this is suppressing Al-Hazm's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 40 Al-Hazm games / 6 Al-Faisaly FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Hazm 49% | Draw 32% | Al-Faisaly FC 19%. Fair-value odds: Al-Hazm 2.04 | Draw 3.12 | Al-Faisaly FC 5.26. Al-Hazm hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.31. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.31 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Al-Hazm as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Hazm offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.31 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 41% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 0.3 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 47%. Form rates are neutral: Al-Hazm 50% | Al-Faisaly FC 67%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Hazm vs Al-Faisaly FC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Al-Hazem Club Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 11 Mar 2027, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Hazm 49% | Draw 32% | Al-Faisaly FC 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 47% | xG Al-Hazm 1.46 / Al-Faisaly FC 0.85 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Hazm attack 0.868 / def 0.854 | Al-Faisaly FC attack 0.774 / def 1.253 | league avg home 1.339 / away 1.286 • Poisson stance: Al-Hazm (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.46
Al-Hazm xG
Expected Goals
0.85
Al-Faisaly FC xG
47%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Hazm vs Al-Faisaly FC kick off?
Al-Hazm vs Al-Faisaly FC is scheduled to kick off at 18:00 on Thursday 11 March 2027 at Al-Hazem Club Stadium.
Where is Al-Hazm vs Al-Faisaly FC being played?
The match is being played at Al-Hazem Club Stadium.
What competition is Al-Hazm vs Al-Faisaly FC part of?
Al-Hazm vs Al-Faisaly FC is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Hazm vs Al-Faisaly FC?
Our statistical model gives Al-Hazm a 49% chance of winning, Al-Faisaly FC a 19% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Al-Hazm the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Hazm vs Al-Faisaly FC?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Al-Hazm and Al-Faisaly FC will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Hazm vs Al-Faisaly FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Hazm and Al-Faisaly FC?
Record (3 meetings): Al-Hazm 0W | Draws 2 | Al-Faisaly FC 1W.
What form are Al-Hazm and Al-Faisaly FC in?
Al-Hazm (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-D-D-W. Al-Faisaly FC (all comps): 0W-3D-3L in 6 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.67 / GA 1.67 | L5 L-D-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Al-Hazm's attack at 0.87x the league average against Al-Faisaly FC's defence at 1.25x — combine the two and it projects 1.46 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Faisaly FC's attack versus Al-Hazm's defence, projects 0.85 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 40/6 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (12.9%), 0-0 (11.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Hazm Win
49%
2.06
32%
3.09
19%
5.23
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
2 – 0
10.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.46
Al-Hazm xG
Total xG
2.31
0.85
Al-Faisaly FC xG
2.06
49%
Home win
3.09
32%
Draw
5.23
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.14
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
43%
2.34
23%
4.29
Win to Nil
21%
4.83
4%
22.42
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.0 | 8.5 | 3.6 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.5 | 12.3 | 5.2 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.6 | 9.0 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.1 | 4.4 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Hazm vs Al-Faisaly FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Al-Hazm and Al-Faisaly FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.46 expected goals for Al-Hazm and 0.85 for Al-Faisaly FC, a combined total of 2.31.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Hazm vs Al-Faisaly FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Al-Hazm's recent record stands at 2W 2D 2L from 6 games, a 1.33 PPG return, with L-L-D-D-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Al-Hazm, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al-Faisaly FC, meanwhile, have gone 0W 3D 3L across 6 games — 0.50 PPG, with L-D-L-D-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Al-Faisaly FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Al-Hazm by 0.83 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Al-Faisaly FC heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Al-Hazm have managed 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — 1.33 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al-Faisaly FC's away record stands at 0W 1D 2L across 3 trips, a 0.33 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Hazm come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Al-Hazm are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Al-Faisaly FC are on 0.67 scored and 1.67 conceded.
Last 6 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Hazm
Early Season
Al-Faisaly FC
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Hazm and Al-Faisaly FC in coming into this match?
Al-Hazm have gone 2W 2D 2L in their last 6 games (1.33 PPG), while Al-Faisaly FC have gone 0W 3D 3L in their last 6 (0.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Hazm at home or Al-Faisaly FC away?
Al-Hazm's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Hazm at home: 1.33 PPG; Al-Faisaly FC away: 0.33 PPG.
Have Al-Hazm or Al-Faisaly FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Hazm have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Al-Faisaly FC in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al-Hazm and Al-Faisaly FC runs to 3 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 5 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 3 Meetings
0
Al-Hazm
2
Draws
1
Al-Faisaly FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Hazm and Al-Faisaly FC?
From 3 meetings on record, Al-Hazm have won 0, Al-Faisaly FC have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al-Hazm and Al-Faisaly FC last play each other?
They last met on 5 September 2026, when Al-Faisaly FC 0-0 Al-Hazm.
Who has won more matches between Al-Hazm and Al-Faisaly FC?
Al-Faisaly FC have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al-Hazm are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Al-Faisaly FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Hazm 33%, Al-Faisaly FC 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 0% for Al-Hazm and 67% for Al-Faisaly FC.
On the defensive side: Al-Hazm keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Al-Faisaly FC in 33%; Al-Hazm have failed to score in 33% of games; Al-Faisaly FC in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Hazm home games / Al-Faisaly FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Hazm play Al-Faisaly FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Al-Hazm's recent matches and 67% of Al-Faisaly FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Hazm vs Al-Faisaly FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Al-Hazm's recent games and 67% of Al-Faisaly FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Hazm and Al-Faisaly FC tend to score early?
Al-Hazm have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Al-Faisaly FC in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.