Al-Hazm 0-4 Al-Ahli Jeddah – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Al-Ahli Jeddah (80%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Al-Hazm face Al-Ahli Jeddah.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Al-Hazm and Al-Ahli Jeddah meet at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 18. This fixture gets under way on Friday 22 December 2023 at 15:00 UTC.
Current Form
Al-Hazm's overall Pro League record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: L L D W D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 2.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.60 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al-Hazm, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Hazm at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium this season: 2W 1D 5L from 8 home games — 0.88 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 3.12 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 62% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Al-Ahli Jeddah (all games): 5W 4D 1L across 10 Pro League outings this term — 1.90 points per game. Last five: D D W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ahli Jeddah, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Al-Ahli Jeddah have posted 4W 1D 3L from 8 away outings — 1.62 PPG. They are averaging 2.62 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 3 clean sheets from 8 away games (38%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 62% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On a straight form reading, Al-Ahli Jeddah are the stronger side — 1.00 PPG clear of the hosts (1.90 vs 0.90). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Al-Hazm have seen both teams score in 62% of their games, Al-Ahli Jeddah in 62%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Al-Hazm 0W, Al-Ahli Jeddah 2W, 1D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 3 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 11 Aug 2023, ended 1–3 with Al-Ahli Jeddah winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Al-Hazm — key trading statistics (17 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
Al-Ahli Jeddah — key trading statistics (17 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 25% of the time; they lead at the break 59% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 88% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 59%; they keep a clean sheet 53% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Hazm 71% versus Al-Ahli Jeddah 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Hazm 59% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Hazm 1.37 xG and Al-Ahli Jeddah 3.75 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Hazm attack 0.895 / defence 1.762 | Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.568 / defence 0.995. League average goals — home 1.541 / away 1.358. Al-Ahli Jeddah have an above-average attack strength of 1.568 — the away xG of 3.75 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 17 Al-Hazm games / 17 Al-Ahli Jeddah games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Hazm 9% | Draw 11% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 80%. Fair-value odds: Al-Hazm 11.11 | Draw 9.09 | Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.25. The model has a clear lean to Al-Ahli Jeddah (80%) — a 71pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 89% | BTTS probability 73% | Total xG 5.12. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 89% — a total xG of 5.12 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 73% reflects that both xG figures (1.37 / 3.75) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Ahli Jeddah are the pick at 80% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
Poisson projects 5.12 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 89% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 4.4 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 73% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Al-Hazm 62% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 62% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Hazm vs Al-Ahli Jeddah | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: King Abdullah Sport City Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 22 Dec 2023, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Hazm 9% | Draw 11% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 80% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 89% | BTTS 73% | xG Al-Hazm 1.37 / Al-Ahli Jeddah 3.75 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Hazm attack 0.895 / def 1.762 | Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.568 / def 0.995 | league avg home 1.541 / away 1.358 • Poisson stance: Al-Ahli Jeddah (80%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.37
Al-Hazm xG
Expected Goals
3.75
Al-Ahli Jeddah xG
73%
BTTS
97%
Over 1.5
89%
Over 2.5
75%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Hazm vs Al-Ahli Jeddah kick off?
Al-Hazm vs Al-Ahli Jeddah kicked off at 15:00 on Friday 22 December 2023 at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Hazm vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Al-Hazm 0 - 4 Al-Ahli Jeddah.
Where is Al-Hazm vs Al-Ahli Jeddah being played?
The match is being played at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium.
What competition is Al-Hazm vs Al-Ahli Jeddah part of?
Al-Hazm vs Al-Ahli Jeddah is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Hazm vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Our statistical model gives Al-Hazm a 9% chance of winning, Al-Ahli Jeddah a 80% chance, and a 11% chance of a draw — making Al-Ahli Jeddah the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Hazm vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Our model estimates a 73% probability that both Al-Hazm and Al-Ahli Jeddah will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Hazm vs Al-Ahli Jeddah have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 89%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Hazm and Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Record (3 meetings): Al-Hazm 0W | Draws 1 | Al-Ahli Jeddah 2W.
What form are Al-Hazm and Al-Ahli Jeddah in?
Al-Hazm (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.60 | L5 L-L-D-W-D. Al-Ahli Jeddah (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.60 | L5 D-D-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Al-Hazm's attack at 0.90x the league average against Al-Ahli Jeddah's defence at 0.99x — combine the two and it projects 1.37 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Al-Ahli Jeddah's attack (1.57x) against Al-Hazm's defence (1.76x) — and the away total comes out at 3.75.
These ratings are built from 17/17 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-3 carries the highest individual probability at 7.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-4 (6.7%), 1-2 (5.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 20% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ahli Jeddah Win
9%
11.01
11%
8.98
80%
1.25
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 3
7.2%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 4
6.7%
Away win
1 – 2
5.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.37
Al-Hazm xG
Total xG
5.12
3.75
Al-Ahli Jeddah xG
11.01
9%
Home win
8.98
11%
Draw
1.25
80%
Away win
Goals Markets
96%
Over 1.5
1.04
4%
Under 1.5
25.00
89%
Over 2.5
1.12
11%
Under 2.5
9.09
75%
Over 3.5
1.33
25%
Under 3.5
4.00
58%
Over 4.5
1.72
42%
Under 4.5
2.38
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
73%
BTTS Yes
1.37
27%
BTTS No
3.71
Clean Sheet
2%
42.52
25%
3.94
Win to Nil
0%
–
20%
4.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.6 | 2.2 | 4.2 | 5.2 | 4.9 | 3.7 |
| 1 | 0.8 | 3.1 | 5.8 | 7.2 | 6.7 | 5.1 |
| 2 | 0.6 | 2.1 | 3.9 | 4.9 | 4.6 | 3.5 |
| 3 | 0.3 | 1.0 | 1.8 | 2.3 | 2.1 | 1.6 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.5 |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Hazm vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Our Poisson model rates 1-3 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 7.2%.
How many goals are Al-Hazm and Al-Ahli Jeddah expected to score?
The model projects 1.37 expected goals for Al-Hazm and 3.75 for Al-Ahli Jeddah, a combined total of 5.12.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Hazm vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 80%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Al-Hazm's recent record stands at 2W 6D 9L from 17 games, a 0.71 PPG return, with L-L-D-W-D in the last five. The sample for Al-Hazm is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Ahli Jeddah, meanwhile, have gone 10W 4D 3L across 17 games — 2.00 PPG, with D-D-W-D-W in their last five. The sample for Al-Ahli Jeddah is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Al-Ahli Jeddah by 1.29 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Al-Hazm heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Al-Hazm have managed 2W 1D 5L from 8 games — 0.88 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al-Ahli Jeddah's away record stands at 4W 1D 3L across 8 trips, a 1.62 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Ahli Jeddah come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al-Hazm are averaging 1.06 goals scored and 2.47 conceded per game recently; Al-Ahli Jeddah are on 2.12 scored and 1.12 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Hazm have seen both teams score in 71% of their recent games.
Defensively: Al-Ahli Jeddah in 53% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 17 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Hazm
Blended
Al-Ahli Jeddah
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Hazm and Al-Ahli Jeddah in coming into this match?
Al-Hazm have gone 2W 6D 9L in their last 17 games (0.71 PPG), while Al-Ahli Jeddah have gone 10W 4D 3L in their last 17 (2.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Hazm at home or Al-Ahli Jeddah away?
Al-Ahli Jeddah's away record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Hazm at home: 0.88 PPG; Al-Ahli Jeddah away: 1.62 PPG.
Have Al-Hazm or Al-Ahli Jeddah been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Hazm have kept a clean sheet in 18% of their recent games, Al-Ahli Jeddah in 53%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 5 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Al-Ahli Jeddah have won the last 5 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al-Ahli Jeddah won 0-4 on 22 Dec 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Hazm have gone 0W 1D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Al-Ahli Jeddah — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Al-Hazm
1
Draws
5
Al-Ahli Jeddah
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Hazm and Al-Ahli Jeddah?
From 6 meetings on record, Al-Hazm have won 0, Al-Ahli Jeddah have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al-Hazm and Al-Ahli Jeddah last play each other?
They last met on 5 February 2026, when Al-Ahli Jeddah 2-0 Al-Hazm.
Who has won more matches between Al-Hazm and Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Al-Ahli Jeddah have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Al-Hazm are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Al-Ahli Jeddah are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 62% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Hazm 62%, Al-Ahli Jeddah 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 62% for Al-Hazm and 88% for Al-Ahli Jeddah. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 88% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Ahli Jeddah in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Hazm home games / Al-Ahli Jeddah away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Hazm play Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Al-Hazm's games and 62% of Al-Ahli Jeddah's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Hazm vs Al-Ahli Jeddah usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Al-Hazm's matches and 88% of Al-Ahli Jeddah's.
Do Al-Hazm and Al-Ahli Jeddah tend to score early?
Al-Hazm have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, Al-Ahli Jeddah in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Al-Ahli Jeddah run riot with a 0-4 hammering of Al-Hazm.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Ahli Jeddah beat Al-Hazm 0-4 at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium, Regular Season - 18, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Hazm 1.37 xG and Al-Ahli Jeddah 3.75 xG, a combined 5.12. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. Al-Hazm fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Hazm attack 0.90 / defence 1.76 against Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.57 / defence 0.99, drawn from 17/17 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Hazm 9% | Draw 11% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 80%, with Al-Ahli Jeddah to win its most likely call at 80%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 89%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 97% and landed. Over 3.5 was 75% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 73% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Hazm 59%, Al-Ahli Jeddah 65%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Hazm's trading profile (17 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did not.
Al-Ahli Jeddah's trading profile (17 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 53% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Ahli Jeddah arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 0.71. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Al-Hazm (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.25 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 3.12 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al-Ahli Jeddah (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.62 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.88 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.