Al-Hazm 2-1 Abha – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Al-Hazm at 46%, yet in-form Abha provide a compelling counter-argument — this Al-Hazm vs Abha fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Full Analysis

Ar-Rass Stadium plays host to Al-Hazm versus Abha in Pro League (matchday 34). Kick-off: Monday 27 May 2024 at 20:00 UK time.

Form & Momentum

Al-Hazm have collected 0.60 PPG across their last 10 games: 1W 3D 6L. Last five: W D L D L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).

At home, Al-Hazm have gone 1W 4D 5L in their last 10 home games (0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game.

Abha (all games): 4W 2D 4L across their last 10 — 1.40 points per game. Last five: L W D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.60 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).

Abha's away record over their last 10 away games: 0W 1D 9L (0.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 3.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.10 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

On a straight form reading, Abha are the stronger side — 0.80 PPG clear of the hosts (1.40 vs 0.60). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.

H2H History

Neither side has dominated the 3 H2H matches in our data: 1 wins for Al-Hazm, 1 for Abha and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 14 Dec 2023, ended Al-Hazm 1–1 Abha — a draw.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

Trading Data

Al-Hazm goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 33 games, 16 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%; they fail to score in 33% of games.

Abha goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 33 games, 16 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 81% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; of the 7 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 81% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 54%; they fail to score in 33% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Hazm 61% versus Abha 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Hazm 54% | Abha 70%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Hazm 1.86 xG and Abha 1.41 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Hazm attack 0.653 / defence 1.377 | Abha attack 0.771 / defence 1.940. League average goals — home 1.466 / away 1.331. Al-Hazm's attack rating of 0.653 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.86. Abha's defence rating of 1.940 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Al-Hazm's projected output up. Abha's attack rating of 0.771 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.41. Al-Hazm's defence rating of 1.377 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Abha's projected output up. Data: built from Al-Hazm's last 33 games and Abha's last 63.

Result probabilities: Al-Hazm 46% | Draw 27% | Abha 27%. Fair-value odds: Al-Hazm 2.17 | Draw 3.77 | Abha 3.65. Al-Hazm hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS Yes probability 66% | Total xG 3.27. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.27 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 66% — both xG figures (1.86 / 1.41) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Al-Hazm as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Abha (1.40 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Hazm if the outright odds are short.

The Poisson model projects 3.27 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 63% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Al-Hazm's last 10 home games and Abha's last 10 away games) averaging 4.0 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 66% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Al-Hazm 40% (last 10 home games) | Abha 60% (last 10 away games).

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