Al-Fayha 1-1 Al Taawon – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al Taawon at 43% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Fayha vs Al Taawon encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Al Taawon make the trip to Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium to face Al-Fayha in Pro League, Regular Season - 3. The match kicks off on Saturday 10 September 2022 at 16:45 UTC.
Form
Al-Fayha (all games): 2W 2D 6L across 10 Pro League fixtures this term — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L D L L L. They are averaging 0.30 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. Al-Fayha have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al-Fayha at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Al Taawon's overall Pro League record this term: 4W 5D 1L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: W D D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Al Taawon have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Al Taawon have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Al Taawon are 0.90 PPG clear of Al-Fayha in recent Pro League fixtures (1.70 vs 0.80). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Al-Fayha lead 0W to 1W over the last 2 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.5 per game from 2 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 29 May 2022, ended 0–1 with Al Taawon winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Al-Fayha — key trading statistics (32 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 44% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 12% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 6% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time; they fail to score in 47% of games.
Al Taawon — key trading statistics (32 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 78% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Fayha 31% versus Al Taawon 69%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Al-Fayha 16% | Al Taawon 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Fayha 0.74 xG and Al Taawon 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Fayha attack 0.776 / defence 0.880 | Al Taawon attack 1.110 / defence 0.871. League average goals — home 1.100 / away 1.106. Al-Fayha's attack strength of 0.776 is below the league average — the 0.74 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 32 Al-Fayha games / 32 Al Taawon games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Al-Fayha 25% | Draw 32% | Al Taawon 43%. Fair-value odds: Al-Fayha 4.00 | Draw 3.12 | Al Taawon 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 28% | BTTS probability 35% | Total xG 1.82. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 72% probability — total xG of 1.82 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 65% — Al-Fayha's lower xG of 0.74 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 35%.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Al Taawon as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al Taawon if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 1.82 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 28% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 35% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al-Fayha 10% | Al Taawon 70% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (32 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Fayha vs Al Taawon | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 10 Sep 2022, 16:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Fayha 25% | Draw 32% | Al Taawon 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 28% | BTTS 35% | xG Al-Fayha 0.74 / Al Taawon 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Fayha attack 0.776 / def 0.880 | Al Taawon attack 1.110 / def 0.871 | league avg home 1.100 / away 1.106 • Poisson stance: Al Taawon (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.74
Al-Fayha xG
Expected Goals
1.08
Al Taawon xG
35%
BTTS
54%
Over 1.5
28%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Fayha vs Al Taawon kick off?
Al-Fayha vs Al Taawon kicked off at 16:45 on Saturday 10 September 2022 at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Fayha vs Al Taawon?
Al-Fayha 1 - 1 Al Taawon.
Where is Al-Fayha vs Al Taawon being played?
The match is being played at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium.
What competition is Al-Fayha vs Al Taawon part of?
Al-Fayha vs Al Taawon is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Fayha vs Al Taawon?
Our statistical model gives Al-Fayha a 25% chance of winning, Al Taawon a 43% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Al Taawon the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Fayha vs Al Taawon?
Our model estimates a 35% probability that both Al-Fayha and Al Taawon will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Fayha vs Al Taawon have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 28%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fayha and Al Taawon?
Record (2 meetings): Al-Fayha 0W | Draws 1 | Al Taawon 1W.
What form are Al-Fayha and Al Taawon in?
Al-Fayha (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.30 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-D-L-L-L. Al Taawon (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Al-Fayha's attack rating (0.78) and Al Taawon's defence rating (0.87), the model arrives at 0.74 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Al Taawon's attack (1.11x) against Al-Fayha's defence (0.88x) — and the away total comes out at 1.08.
The sample (32/32 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 17.8%. Close behind: 0-1 (15.8%), 1-1 (14.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 48% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Taawon Win
25%
4.02
32%
3.13
43%
2.32
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
17.4%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
16.1%
Draw
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.74
Al-Fayha xG
Total xG
1.82
1.08
Al Taawon xG
4.02
25%
Home win
3.13
32%
Draw
2.32
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
54%
Over 1.5
1.85
46%
Under 1.5
2.17
28%
Over 2.5
3.57
72%
Under 2.5
1.39
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
35%
BTTS Yes
2.89
65%
BTTS No
1.53
Clean Sheet
34%
2.95
48%
2.10
Win to Nil
8%
11.84
21%
4.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.1 | 17.4 | 9.4 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.0 | 13.0 | 7.0 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 4.8 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Fayha vs Al Taawon?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.8%.
How many goals are Al-Fayha and Al Taawon expected to score?
The model projects 0.74 expected goals for Al-Fayha and 1.08 for Al Taawon, a combined total of 1.82.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Fayha vs Al Taawon?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Al-Fayha's recent record stands at 8W 11D 13L from 32 games, a 1.09 PPG return, with L-D-L-L-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Al-Fayha, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al Taawon, meanwhile, have gone 9W 13D 10L across 32 games — 1.25 PPG, with W-D-D-W-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Al Taawon, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.09 PPG for Al-Fayha against 1.25 for Al Taawon. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Al-Fayha have managed 7W 5D 4L from 16 games — 1.62 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.09 PPG overall — Al-Fayha are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Al Taawon's away record stands at 4W 7D 5L across 16 trips, a 1.19 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Fayha come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Al-Fayha are averaging 0.66 goals scored and 0.84 conceded per game recently; Al Taawon are on 1.44 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al Taawon in 69%.
Defensively: Al-Fayha have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 32 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Fayha
Early Season
Al Taawon
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Fayha and Al Taawon in coming into this match?
Al-Fayha have gone 8W 11D 13L in their last 32 games (1.09 PPG), while Al Taawon have gone 9W 13D 10L in their last 32 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Fayha at home or Al Taawon away?
Al-Fayha's home record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Fayha at home: 1.62 PPG; Al Taawon away: 1.19 PPG.
Have Al-Fayha or Al Taawon been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Fayha have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their recent games, Al Taawon in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 20 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al Taawon won 4-1 on 8 Dec 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Fayha have gone 0W 3D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Al Taawon — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Al-Fayha
5
Draws
4
Al Taawon
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fayha and Al Taawon?
From 10 meetings on record, Al-Fayha have won 1, Al Taawon have won 4, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Al-Fayha and Al Taawon last play each other?
They last met on 20 February 2026, when Al Taawon 2-3 Al-Fayha.
Who has won more matches between Al-Fayha and Al Taawon?
Al Taawon have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Al-Fayha see a goal before the break in 44% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Al Taawon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Fayha 12%, Al Taawon 75% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 6% for Al-Fayha and 56% for Al Taawon.
On the defensive side: Al-Fayha keep a clean sheet in 69% of their matches; Al-Fayha have failed to score in 44% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Fayha home games / Al Taawon away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Fayha play Al Taawon?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 12% of Al-Fayha's recent matches and 75% of Al Taawon's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Fayha vs Al Taawon usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 6% of Al-Fayha's recent games and 56% of Al Taawon's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Fayha and Al Taawon tend to score early?
Al-Fayha have had a goal before half-time in 44% of their recent matches, Al Taawon in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Fayha and Al Taawon share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium, Regular Season - 3, as Al-Fayha and Al Taawon drew 1-1 in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Fayha 0.74 xG and Al Taawon 1.08 xG, a combined 1.82. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Fayha attack 0.78 / defence 0.88 against Al Taawon attack 1.11 / defence 0.87, drawn from 32/32 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Al-Fayha 25% | Draw 32% | Al Taawon 43%, with Al Taawon to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 28%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 54% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 35% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 33% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Fayha 16%, Al Taawon 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Fayha's trading profile (32 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 31% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.
Al Taawon's trading profile (32 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al-Fayha 1.09 PPG, Al Taawon 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.