Al-Fayha 4-2 Al Riyadh – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Fayha at 53% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Fayha vs Al Riyadh encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 31 sees Al Riyadh travel to King Abdullah Sports City Stadium to take on Al-Fayha. The game is scheduled for Monday 4 May 2026, 17:10 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Fayha stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L D L D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at King Abdullah Sports City Stadium, Al-Fayha have gone 4W 4D 2L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all Pro League games this season, Al Riyadh have recorded 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W D W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Al Riyadh's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Al-Fayha at 1.20 PPG versus Al Riyadh's 1.10. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 5 previous meetings, Al-Fayha have won 2, Al Riyadh 0, with 3 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 10 Jan 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Al-Fayha trading profile (64 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 61% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
Al Riyadh trading profile (64 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Fayha 44% versus Al Riyadh 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Fayha 44% | Al Riyadh 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Fayha 1.74 xG and Al Riyadh 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Fayha attack 0.889 / defence 0.891 | Al Riyadh attack 0.839 / defence 1.282. League average goals — home 1.529 / away 1.427. Al Riyadh bring a strong defensive rating of 1.282 — this is suppressing Al-Fayha's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 64 Al-Fayha games / 64 Al Riyadh games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Fayha 53% | Draw 24% | Al Riyadh 23%. Fair-value odds: Al-Fayha 1.89 | Draw 4.17 | Al Riyadh 4.35. Al-Fayha hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.81. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.81 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Fayha are the pick at 53% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Fayha offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.81 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Al-Fayha 50% | Al Riyadh 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Fayha vs Al Riyadh | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: King Abdullah Sports City Stadium • Kick-off: Monday 4 May 2026, 17:10 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Fayha 53% | Draw 24% | Al Riyadh 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 54% | xG Al-Fayha 1.74 / Al Riyadh 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Fayha attack 0.889 / def 0.891 | Al Riyadh attack 0.839 / def 1.282 | league avg home 1.529 / away 1.427 • Poisson stance: Al-Fayha (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.74
Al-Fayha xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Al Riyadh xG
54%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Fayha vs Al Riyadh kick off?
Al-Fayha vs Al Riyadh kicked off at 17:10 on Monday 4 May 2026 at King Abdullah Sports City Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Fayha vs Al Riyadh?
Al-Fayha 4 - 2 Al Riyadh.
Where is Al-Fayha vs Al Riyadh being played?
The match is being played at King Abdullah Sports City Stadium.
What competition is Al-Fayha vs Al Riyadh part of?
Al-Fayha vs Al Riyadh is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Fayha vs Al Riyadh?
Our statistical model gives Al-Fayha a 53% chance of winning, Al Riyadh a 23% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Al-Fayha the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Fayha vs Al Riyadh?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Al-Fayha and Al Riyadh will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Fayha vs Al Riyadh have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fayha and Al Riyadh?
Record (5 meetings): Al-Fayha 2W | Draws 3 | Al Riyadh 0W.
What form are Al-Fayha and Al Riyadh in?
Al-Fayha (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-D-L-D. Al Riyadh (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-D-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Al-Fayha's attack at 0.89x the league average against Al Riyadh's defence at 1.28x — combine the two and it projects 1.74 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Al Riyadh's attack versus Al-Fayha's defence, projects 1.07 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 64/64 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Fayha Win
53%
1.88
24%
4.19
23%
4.34
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.5%
Home win
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.74
Al-Fayha xG
Total xG
2.81
1.07
Al Riyadh xG
1.88
53%
Home win
4.19
24%
Draw
4.34
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.18
Clean Sheet
34%
2.91
17%
5.71
Win to Nil
18%
5.47
4%
24.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 6.4 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 11.2 | 6.0 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 9.8 | 5.2 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.3 | 5.7 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Fayha vs Al Riyadh?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Al-Fayha and Al Riyadh expected to score?
The model projects 1.74 expected goals for Al-Fayha and 1.07 for Al Riyadh, a combined total of 2.81.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Fayha vs Al Riyadh?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 64 outings, Al-Fayha have picked up 1.11 PPG on a 17W 20D 27L record — W-L-D-L-D across the most recent five.
Al Riyadh's form line: 15W 16D 33L from 64 games, 0.95 PPG, last five W-D-W-L-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al-Fayha on 1.11 PPG, Al Riyadh on 0.95. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Al-Fayha have posted 1.35 PPG from 31 outings (10W 12D 9L).
On the road, Al Riyadh have gone 7W 5D 19L from 31 away games — 0.84 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Fayha come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Al-Fayha are averaging 0.98 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; Al Riyadh are on 1.05 scored and 1.72 conceded.
Last 64 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Fayha
Current Season
Al Riyadh
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Fayha and Al Riyadh in coming into this match?
Al-Fayha have gone 17W 20D 27L in their last 64 games (1.11 PPG), while Al Riyadh have gone 15W 16D 33L in their last 64 (0.95 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Fayha at home or Al Riyadh away?
Al-Fayha's home record (1.35 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Fayha at home: 1.35 PPG; Al Riyadh away: 0.84 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 4 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Al-Fayha's record when hosting Al Riyadh specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Al-Fayha
3
Draws
0
Al Riyadh
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fayha and Al Riyadh?
From 6 meetings on record, Al-Fayha have won 3, Al Riyadh have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Al-Fayha and Al Riyadh last play each other?
They last met on 4 May 2026, when Al-Fayha 4-2 Al Riyadh.
Who has won more matches between Al-Fayha and Al Riyadh?
Al-Fayha have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al-Fayha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Al Riyadh are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 23% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Fayha 42%, Al Riyadh 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 29% (Al-Fayha) and 64% (Al Riyadh).
On the defensive side: Al-Fayha keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Al-Fayha have failed to score in 36% of games; Al Riyadh in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Fayha home games / Al Riyadh away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Fayha play Al Riyadh?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Al-Fayha's recent matches and 64% of Al Riyadh's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Fayha vs Al Riyadh usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 29% of Al-Fayha's recent games and 64% of Al Riyadh's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Fayha and Al Riyadh tend to score early?
Al-Fayha have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Al Riyadh in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Fayha cruise to a comfortable 4-2 victory over Al Riyadh.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Fayha beat Al Riyadh 4-2 at King Abdullah Sports City Stadium, Regular Season - 31, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Fayha 1.74 xG and Al Riyadh 1.07 xG, a combined 2.81. The scoreboard read 4-2 for 6 actual goals. Al-Fayha beat their projection by 2.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Al Riyadh outscored their 1.07 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Fayha attack 0.89 / defence 0.89 against Al Riyadh attack 0.84 / defence 1.28, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Fayha 53% | Draw 24% | Al Riyadh 23%, with Al-Fayha to win its most likely call at 53%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Fayha 44%, Al Riyadh 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Fayha's trading profile (64 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.
Al Riyadh's trading profile (64 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al-Fayha 1.11 PPG, Al Riyadh 0.95 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al-Fayha win broke the near-deadlock. Al-Fayha (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 0.97 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.13 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al Riyadh (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.06 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.