Al-Fayha vs Al-Qadisiyah FC – Pre-Match Analysis

Poisson model favours Al-Qadisiyah FC (62%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Al-Fayha face Al-Qadisiyah FC.

✍️ Match Preview

Fixture Analysis

It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 30 as Al-Fayha welcome Al-Qadisiyah FC to King Abdullah Sports City Stadium. Kick-off is set for Thursday 6 May 2027 at 18:00 UTC.

Form Guide

Al-Fayha — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Pro League outings this season, averaging 0.90 points per game. Last five: L L D W D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Al-Fayha have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

Al-Fayha's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 games at King Abdullah Sports City Stadium this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Qadisiyah FC have recorded 9W 0D 1L from 10 outings — 2.70 PPG. Last five: W L W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.60 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Al-Qadisiyah FC have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

Al-Qadisiyah FC's form when playing away from home: 8W 1D 1L across 10 road games this term (2.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Al-Qadisiyah FC — 1.80 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.70 vs 0.90). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.

Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.

H2H Record

There is little to separate the sides historically. From 4 previous meetings, Al-Fayha have won 1, Al-Qadisiyah FC 3, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 4 meetings have averaged 3.2 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 9 May 2026, ended 1–2 with Al-Qadisiyah FC winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading Patterns

Al-Fayha in-play and half-time data (39 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.

Al-Qadisiyah FC in-play and half-time data (39 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 54%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Fayha 54% versus Al-Qadisiyah FC 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Fayha 56% | Al-Qadisiyah FC 67%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Fayha 1.07 xG and Al-Qadisiyah FC 2.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Fayha attack 1.066 / defence 1.209 | Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 1.400 / defence 0.715. League average goals — home 1.397 / away 1.310. Al-Qadisiyah FC's defence strength of 0.715 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Al-Qadisiyah FC have an above-average attack strength of 1.400 — the away xG of 2.22 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 39 Al-Fayha games / 39 Al-Qadisiyah FC games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Al-Fayha 15% | Draw 23% | Al-Qadisiyah FC 62%. Fair-value odds: Al-Fayha 6.67 | Draw 4.35 | Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.61. The model has a clear lean to Al-Qadisiyah FC (62%) — a 47pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.28. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.28 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.07 / 2.22) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Al-Qadisiyah FC are the pick at 62% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

Poisson projects 3.28 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 64% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates corroborate: Al-Fayha 70% | Al-Qadisiyah FC 70% BTTS from recent games.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights