Al-Fayha 0-5 Al Kholood – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Fayha at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Fayha vs Al Kholood fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 13 as Al-Fayha welcome Al Kholood to King Abdullah Sports City Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 3 January 2026 at 14:55 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Fayha have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: L W L D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Al-Fayha, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Al-Fayha have posted 4W 4D 2L at King Abdullah Sports City Stadium — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Al-Fayha are significantly better at King Abdullah Sports City Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al Kholood stand at 3W 0D 7L from 10 Pro League matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al Kholood, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Kholood's away record: 2W 0D 8L from 10 road trips in Pro League this season (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Al-Fayha 0.90 PPG, Al Kholood 0.90 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Al-Fayha, 1 for Al Kholood and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The last 2 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.5 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 21 May 2025, ended 0–2 with Al Kholood winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Al-Fayha in-play and half-time data (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 23% of games (home games); they fail to score in 47% of games.
Al Kholood in-play and half-time data (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Fayha 40% versus Al Kholood 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Fayha 42% | Al Kholood 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Fayha 1.36 xG and Al Kholood 0.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Fayha attack 0.784 / defence 0.736 | Al Kholood attack 0.770 / defence 1.172. League average goals — home 1.475 / away 1.436. Al-Fayha's attack strength of 0.784 is below the league average — the 1.36 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Al-Fayha's defence rating of 0.736 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 45 Al-Fayha games / 45 Al Kholood games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Fayha 49% | Draw 29% | Al Kholood 22%. Fair-value odds: Al-Fayha 2.04 | Draw 3.45 | Al Kholood 4.55. Al-Fayha hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.17. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.17 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Fayha at 49% — moderate model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Fayha offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.17 combined xG gives a 37% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 42% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Al-Fayha 50% | Al Kholood 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Fayha vs Al Kholood | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: King Abdullah Sports City Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 3 Jan 2026, 14:55 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Fayha 49% | Draw 29% | Al Kholood 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 42% | xG Al-Fayha 1.36 / Al Kholood 0.81 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Fayha attack 0.784 / def 0.736 | Al Kholood attack 0.770 / def 1.172 | league avg home 1.475 / away 1.436 • Poisson stance: Al-Fayha (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
Al-Fayha xG
Expected Goals
0.81
Al Kholood xG
42%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Fayha vs Al Kholood kick off?
Al-Fayha vs Al Kholood kicked off at 14:55 on Saturday 3 January 2026 at King Abdullah Sports City Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Fayha vs Al Kholood?
Al-Fayha 0 - 5 Al Kholood.
Where is Al-Fayha vs Al Kholood being played?
The match is being played at King Abdullah Sports City Stadium.
What competition is Al-Fayha vs Al Kholood part of?
Al-Fayha vs Al Kholood is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Fayha vs Al Kholood?
Our statistical model gives Al-Fayha a 49% chance of winning, Al Kholood a 22% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Al-Fayha the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Fayha vs Al Kholood?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Al-Fayha and Al Kholood will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Fayha vs Al Kholood have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fayha and Al Kholood?
Record (2 meetings): Al-Fayha 1W | Draws 0 | Al Kholood 1W.
What form are Al-Fayha and Al Kholood in?
Al-Fayha (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-L-D-L. Al Kholood (all comps): 3W-0D-7L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Al-Fayha's attacking strength (0.78x league average) is weighed against Al Kholood's defensive record (1.17x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.36. The same calculation in reverse, Al Kholood's attack versus Al-Fayha's defence, projects 0.81 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 45/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (13.8%), 0-0 (13.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Fayha Win
49%
2.05
29%
3.41
22%
4.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
0 – 0
11.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
Al-Fayha xG
Total xG
2.17
0.81
Al Kholood xG
2.05
49%
Home win
3.41
29%
Draw
4.59
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.38
58%
BTTS No
1.73
Clean Sheet
44%
2.26
26%
3.88
Win to Nil
22%
4.62
6%
17.80
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.4 | 9.3 | 3.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.5 | 12.6 | 5.1 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 10.5 | 8.5 | 3.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.7 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Fayha vs Al Kholood?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Al-Fayha and Al Kholood expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for Al-Fayha and 0.81 for Al Kholood, a combined total of 2.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Fayha vs Al Kholood?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Al-Fayha come into this having played 45 games, going 11W 15D 19L for 1.07 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-D-L. The sample for Al-Fayha is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Al Kholood sit at 1.09 PPG from 45 outings (15W 4D 26L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-L across their last five. The sample for Al Kholood is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al-Fayha on 1.07 PPG, Al Kholood on 1.09. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Al-Fayha's home form reads 6W 9D 7L across 22 games on their own ground, a 1.23 PPG return.
Away from home, Al Kholood have taken 0.77 points per game from 22 outings (5W 2D 15L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Fayha come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Al-Fayha are averaging 0.84 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; Al Kholood are on 1.24 scored and 1.91 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al Kholood in 60%.
Last 45 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Fayha
Blended
Al Kholood
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Fayha and Al Kholood in coming into this match?
Al-Fayha have gone 11W 15D 19L in their last 45 games (1.07 PPG), while Al Kholood have gone 15W 4D 26L in their last 45 (1.09 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Fayha at home or Al Kholood away?
Al-Fayha's home record (1.23 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Fayha at home: 1.23 PPG; Al Kholood away: 0.77 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al-Fayha and Al Kholood runs to 5 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to January 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 3 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 3 Jan 2026, when Al Kholood won 0-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Fayha's record when hosting Al Kholood specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
1
Al-Fayha
2
Draws
2
Al Kholood
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fayha and Al Kholood?
From 5 meetings on record, Al-Fayha have won 1, Al Kholood have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al-Fayha and Al Kholood last play each other?
They last met on 3 September 2026, when Al-Fayha 2-2 Al Kholood.
Who has won more matches between Al-Fayha and Al Kholood?
Al Kholood have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al-Fayha see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches.
Al Kholood are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Fayha 36%, Al Kholood 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 23% (Al-Fayha) and 59% (Al Kholood).
On the defensive side: Al-Fayha keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Al-Fayha have failed to score in 46% of games; Al Kholood in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Fayha home games / Al Kholood away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Fayha play Al Kholood?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 36% of Al-Fayha's recent matches and 64% of Al Kholood's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Fayha vs Al Kholood usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 23% of Al-Fayha's recent games and 59% of Al Kholood's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Fayha and Al Kholood tend to score early?
Al-Fayha have had a goal before half-time in 54% of their recent matches, Al Kholood in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Al Kholood run riot with a 0-5 hammering of Al-Fayha.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Kholood beat Al-Fayha 0-5 at King Abdullah Sports City Stadium, Regular Season - 13, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Fayha 1.36 xG and Al Kholood 0.81 xG, a combined 2.17. The scoreboard read 0-5 for 5 actual goals. Al-Fayha fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Al Kholood outscored their 0.81 projection by 4.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Fayha attack 0.78 / defence 0.74 against Al Kholood attack 0.77 / defence 1.17, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Fayha 49% | Draw 29% | Al Kholood 22%, with Al-Fayha to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a Al Kholood win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. Over 3.5 was 17% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Fayha 42%, Al Kholood 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Fayha's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 47% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Al Kholood's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al-Fayha 1.07 PPG, Al Kholood 1.09 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al Kholood win broke the near-deadlock. Al-Fayha (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.05 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al Kholood (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 2.14 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.