Al-Fayha 1-1 Al-Ittihad FC – Result & Analysis

Poisson model favours Al-Ittihad FC (59%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Al-Fayha face Al-Ittihad FC.

✍️ Match Preview

Pre-Match Analysis

Al-Fayha and Al-Ittihad FC meet at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium in Pro League (matchday 14). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 11 January 2025 at 17:00 UK time.

Current Form

Al-Fayha's record over their last 10 games: 1W 5D 4L (0.80 PPG). Last five: D L L L D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).

In front of their own supporters, Al-Fayha have posted 3W 3D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.

Al-Ittihad FC (all games): 9W 0D 1L across their last 10 — 2.70 points per game. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.

When travelling, Al-Ittihad FC have posted 6W 1D 3L from their last 10 away outings — 1.90 PPG. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.90 is notably below their overall 2.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

Al-Ittihad FC arrive in superior form — a 1.90 PPG advantage (2.70 vs 0.80) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.

H2H History

Across the 5 H2H matches in our data, Al-Ittihad FC have the stronger record — 4 wins to Al-Fayha's 0, with 1 draw.

The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 29 Mar 2024, ended Al-Fayha 1–3 Al-Ittihad FC — a Al-Ittihad FC win.

Al-Ittihad FC have the better head-to-head record despite being the visitors — 4 wins from 5 H2H matches. Home advantage alone is not a reason to dismiss that.

Trading

Al-Fayha half-time and goal-timing data (last 47 games, 23 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 56% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 58%; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 34% of games.

Al-Ittihad FC half-time and goal-timing data (last 47 games, 23 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 69% of those occasions; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 47%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Fayha 57% versus Al-Ittihad FC 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Fayha 53% | Al-Ittihad FC 66%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Fayha 0.84 xG and Al-Ittihad FC 1.75 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Fayha attack 0.747 / defence 1.058 | Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.116 / defence 0.819. League average goals — home 1.372 / away 1.479. Al-Fayha's attack rating of 0.747 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.84. Data: built from Al-Fayha's last 47 games and Al-Ittihad FC's last 47.

Result probabilities: Al-Fayha 18% | Draw 23% | Al-Ittihad FC 59%. Fair-value odds: Al-Fayha 5.63 | Draw 4.28 | Al-Ittihad FC 1.70. The model has a clear lean to Al-Ittihad FC (59%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS Yes probability 47% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS No at 53% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Ittihad FC at 59% — clear model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

Poisson projects 2.58 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 52% probability — low conviction — though recent form (Al-Fayha's last 10 home games and Al-Ittihad FC's last 10 away games) averaging 2.9 goals per game points the other way.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on No. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Al-Fayha 40% (last 10 home games) | Al-Ittihad FC 60% (last 10 away games).

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