Al-Fayha 0-0 Al-Ittihad FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Al-Ittihad FC (59%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Al-Fayha face Al-Ittihad FC.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Al-Fayha and Al-Ittihad FC meet at King Fahd International Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 8. This fixture gets under way on Friday 29 September 2023 at 16:00 UTC.
Current Form
Al-Fayha's overall Pro League record this term: 3W 4D 3L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: D L D L W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Al-Fayha have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Al-Fayha have posted 2W 4D 4L at King Fahd International Stadium — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Al-Ittihad FC (all games): 9W 0D 1L across 10 Pro League outings this term — 2.70 points per game. Last five: W W L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 8 clean sheets from 10 games (80%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. Al-Ittihad FC have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Al-Ittihad FC have posted 8W 1D 1L from 10 away outings — 2.50 PPG. They are averaging 2.70 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Al-Ittihad FC arrive in superior form — a 1.40 PPG advantage (2.70 vs 1.30) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 4 meetings: Al-Fayha 1W, Al-Ittihad FC 3W, 0D.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 27 May 2023, ended 0–3 with Al-Ittihad FC winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Al-Fayha half-time and goal-timing data (37 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Al-Ittihad FC half-time and goal-timing data (37 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; they lead at the break 51% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 65% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Fayha 49% versus Al-Ittihad FC 32%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Fayha 46% | Al-Ittihad FC 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Fayha 0.61 xG and Al-Ittihad FC 1.51 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Fayha attack 0.704 / defence 0.771 | Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.335 / defence 0.565. League average goals — home 1.529 / away 1.471. Al-Fayha's attack strength of 0.704 is below the league average — the 0.61 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Al-Ittihad FC's defence strength of 0.565 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Al-Ittihad FC have an above-average attack strength of 1.335 — the away xG of 1.51 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Al-Fayha's defence rating of 0.771 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 37 Al-Fayha games / 37 Al-Ittihad FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Fayha 15% | Draw 26% | Al-Ittihad FC 59%. Fair-value odds: Al-Fayha 6.67 | Draw 3.85 | Al-Ittihad FC 1.69. The model has a clear lean to Al-Ittihad FC (59%) — a 44pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 36% | Total xG 2.12. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.12 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 36% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Ittihad FC at 59% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.12 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 36% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 36% on No. Form rates corroborate: Al-Fayha 20% | Al-Ittihad FC 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Fayha vs Al-Ittihad FC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: King Fahd International Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 29 Sep 2023, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Fayha 15% | Draw 26% | Al-Ittihad FC 59% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 36% | xG Al-Fayha 0.61 / Al-Ittihad FC 1.51 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Fayha attack 0.704 / def 0.771 | Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.335 / def 0.565 | league avg home 1.529 / away 1.471 • Poisson stance: Al-Ittihad FC (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.61
Al-Fayha xG
Expected Goals
1.51
Al-Ittihad FC xG
36%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Fayha vs Al-Ittihad FC kick off?
Al-Fayha vs Al-Ittihad FC kicked off at 16:00 on Friday 29 September 2023 at King Fahd International Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Fayha vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Al-Fayha 0 - 0 Al-Ittihad FC.
Where is Al-Fayha vs Al-Ittihad FC being played?
The match is being played at King Fahd International Stadium.
What competition is Al-Fayha vs Al-Ittihad FC part of?
Al-Fayha vs Al-Ittihad FC is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Fayha vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Our statistical model gives Al-Fayha a 15% chance of winning, Al-Ittihad FC a 59% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Al-Ittihad FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Fayha vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both Al-Fayha and Al-Ittihad FC will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Fayha vs Al-Ittihad FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fayha and Al-Ittihad FC?
Record (4 meetings): Al-Fayha 1W | Draws 0 | Al-Ittihad FC 3W.
What form are Al-Fayha and Al-Ittihad FC in?
Al-Fayha (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-L-D-L-W. Al-Ittihad FC (all comps): 9W-0D-1L in 10 | 2.70 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Al-Fayha's attacking strength (0.70x league average) is weighed against Al-Ittihad FC's defensive record (0.56x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.61. Flip it around — Al-Ittihad FC's attack (1.33x) against Al-Fayha's defence (0.77x) — and the away total comes out at 1.51.
These ratings are built from 37/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-1, at 16.7%. Close behind: 0-2 (13.7%), 0-0 (13.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ittihad FC Win
15%
6.75
26%
3.87
59%
1.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
18.1%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
13.7%
Away win
0 – 0
12.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.61
Al-Fayha xG
Total xG
2.12
1.51
Al-Ittihad FC xG
6.75
15%
Home win
3.87
26%
Draw
1.68
59%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.82
64%
BTTS No
1.55
Clean Sheet
22%
4.54
54%
1.84
Win to Nil
3%
30.69
32%
3.09
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.0 | 18.1 | 13.7 | 6.9 | 2.6 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 11.0 | 8.3 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 2.2 | 3.4 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Fayha vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.7%.
How many goals are Al-Fayha and Al-Ittihad FC expected to score?
The model projects 0.61 expected goals for Al-Fayha and 1.51 for Al-Ittihad FC, a combined total of 2.12.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Fayha vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Al-Fayha come into this having played 37 games, going 10W 12D 15L for 1.14 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-D-L-W. It's still early in the season for Al-Fayha, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Al-Ittihad FC sit at 2.43 PPG from 37 outings (28W 6D 3L), a run that reads W-W-L-W-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Al-Ittihad FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al-Ittihad FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.29 PPG clear of Al-Fayha — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Al-Fayha's home form reads 5W 7D 7L across 19 games on their own ground, a 1.16 PPG return.
Away from home, Al-Ittihad FC have taken 2.42 points per game from 19 outings (14W 4D 1L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Ittihad FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al-Fayha are averaging 1.05 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Al-Ittihad FC are on 2.11 scored and 0.49 conceded.
Defensively: Al-Ittihad FC in 65% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 37 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Fayha
Early Season
Al-Ittihad FC
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Fayha and Al-Ittihad FC in coming into this match?
Al-Fayha have gone 10W 12D 15L in their last 37 games (1.14 PPG), while Al-Ittihad FC have gone 28W 6D 3L in their last 37 (2.43 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Fayha at home or Al-Ittihad FC away?
Al-Ittihad FC's away record (2.42 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Fayha at home: 1.16 PPG; Al-Ittihad FC away: 2.42 PPG.
Have Al-Fayha or Al-Ittihad FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Fayha have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Al-Ittihad FC in 65%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 13 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al-Ittihad FC won 3-0 on 19 Jan 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Fayha have gone 1W 3D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Al-Ittihad FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Al-Fayha
3
Draws
6
Al-Ittihad FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fayha and Al-Ittihad FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Al-Fayha have won 1, Al-Ittihad FC have won 6, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Al-Fayha and Al-Ittihad FC last play each other?
They last met on 13 February 2026, when Al-Ittihad FC 2-1 Al-Fayha.
Who has won more matches between Al-Fayha and Al-Ittihad FC?
Al-Ittihad FC have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Al-Fayha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Al-Ittihad FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Fayha 37%, Al-Ittihad FC 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Al-Fayha) and 68% (Al-Ittihad FC). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 10% and 16% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Fayha keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Al-Ittihad FC in 58%; Al-Fayha have failed to score in 47% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Fayha home games / Al-Ittihad FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Fayha play Al-Ittihad FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 37% of Al-Fayha's recent matches and 42% of Al-Ittihad FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Fayha vs Al-Ittihad FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 42% of Al-Fayha's matches and 68% of Al-Ittihad FC's.
Do Al-Fayha and Al-Ittihad FC tend to score early?
Al-Fayha have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Al-Ittihad FC in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Al-Fayha's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Fayha and Al-Ittihad FC finished level at 0-0 at King Fahd International Stadium, Regular Season - 8, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Fayha 0.61 xG and Al-Ittihad FC 1.51 xG, a combined 2.12. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Al-Ittihad FC landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Fayha attack 0.70 / defence 0.77 against Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.33 / defence 0.56, drawn from 37/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Fayha 15% | Draw 26% | Al-Ittihad FC 59%, with Al-Ittihad FC to win its most likely call at 59%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 63% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Fayha 46%, Al-Ittihad FC 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Fayha's trading profile (37 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Al-Ittihad FC's trading profile (37 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 32% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 65% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Ittihad FC arrived the stronger side — 2.43 PPG against 1.14. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Al-Fayha (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.95 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.16 average — tighter than their form line. Al-Ittihad FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.16 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.