Al-Fayha 0-0 Al-Hazm – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Al-Fayha at 57% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Fayha vs Al-Hazm encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Al-Hazm travel to Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium to take on Al-Fayha in Pro League (matchday 3). The game is scheduled for Friday 25 August 2023 at 17:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Al-Fayha — last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: D L W W D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Al-Fayha at home: 4W 3D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across their last 2 games, Al-Hazm have recorded 0W 0D 2L — 0.00 PPG. Last five: L L. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 2.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.50 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly.
Al-Fayha are in the better shape of the two on recent form — 1.20 PPG ahead (1.20 vs 0.00). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 2 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for Al-Fayha, 1 for Al-Hazm and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 2 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 7 May 2022, ended Al-Fayha 1–3 Al-Hazm — a Al-Hazm win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Fayha 1.97 xG and Al-Hazm 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Fayha attack 1.138 / defence 0.945 | Al-Hazm attack 0.828 / defence 1.366. League average goals — home 1.267 / away 1.435. Al-Hazm's defence rating of 1.366 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Al-Fayha's projected output up. Data: built from Al-Fayha's last 32 games and Al-Hazm's last 2. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Al-Fayha 57% | Draw 22% | Al-Hazm 21%. Fair-value odds: Al-Fayha 1.76 | Draw 4.61 | Al-Hazm 4.69. The model has a clear lean to Al-Fayha (57%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS Yes probability 58% | Total xG 3.09. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.09 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 58% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
Form (Al-Fayha's last 10 home games and Al-Hazm's last 2 games) suggests only ~1.8 goals/game but Poisson projects Over 2.5 at 60% — underlying attack/defence strengths imply more goals than surface form shows.
On the Poisson output, Al-Fayha are the pick at 57% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.09 combined xG gives a 60% probability to Over 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's sample (Al-Fayha 32 games, Al-Hazm 2) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Fayha vs Al-Hazm | Competition: Pro League, matchday 3 | Venue: Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 25 August 2023 at 17:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Fayha 57% | Draw 22% | Al-Hazm 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% (Under 40%) | BTTS Yes 58% (No 42%) | xG Al-Fayha 1.97 / Al-Hazm 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Fayha attack 1.138 / def 0.945 | Al-Hazm attack 0.828 / def 1.366 | league avg home 1.267 / away 1.435 • Poisson stance: Al-Fayha (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.97
Al-Fayha xG
Expected Goals
1.12
Al-Hazm xG
58%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Al-Fayha vs Al-Hazm FAQs
What time does Al-Fayha vs Al-Hazm kick off?
Al-Fayha vs Al-Hazm kicked off at 17:00 UK time on Friday 25 August 2023 at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Fayha vs Al-Hazm?
Al-Fayha 0 - 0 Al-Hazm.
Where is Al-Fayha vs Al-Hazm being played?
The match is being played at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium.
What competition is Al-Fayha vs Al-Hazm part of?
Al-Fayha vs Al-Hazm is a Pro League fixture (matchday 3) (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Fayha vs Al-Hazm?
Our statistical model gives Al-Fayha a 57% chance of winning, Al-Hazm a 21% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Al-Fayha the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Fayha vs Al-Hazm?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Al-Fayha and Al-Hazm will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Al-Fayha vs Al-Hazm have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Al-Fayha's attacking strength (1.14x league average) is weighed against Al-Hazm's defensive record (1.37x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.97. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Hazm's attack versus Al-Fayha's defence, projects 1.12 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Al-Fayha's last 32 games and Al-Hazm's last 2, a sample that still includes some older results.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Fayha Win
57%
1.76
22%
4.61
21%
4.69
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
1 – 0
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.97
Al-Fayha xG
Total xG
3.09
1.12
Al-Hazm xG
1.76
57%
Home win
4.61
22%
Draw
4.69
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.38
Clean Sheet
32%
3.08
14%
7.16
Win to Nil
19%
5.40
3%
33.62
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 5.1 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 10.0 | 5.6 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 9.9 | 5.6 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.8 | 6.5 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.8 | 3.2 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Al-Fayha vs Al-Hazm Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Fayha vs Al-Hazm?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.3%.
How many goals are Al-Fayha and Al-Hazm expected to score?
The model projects 1.97 expected goals for Al-Fayha and 1.12 for Al-Hazm, a combined total of 3.09.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Fayha vs Al-Hazm?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Al-Fayha's recent record stands at 1W 1D 0L from 2 games, a 2.00 PPG return, with W-D in the last five.
Al-Hazm, meanwhile, have gone 0W 0D 2L across 2 games — 0.00 PPG, with L-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Al-Fayha by 2.00 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Al-Hazm heading into this one.
The Goals Picture
Al-Fayha are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Al-Hazm are on 0.50 scored and 2.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Fayha have seen both teams score in 100% of their recent games.
Last 2 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Fayha
Early Season
Al-Hazm
Early Season
Al-Fayha (Home) vs Al-Hazm (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Al-Fayha
Early Season
Al-Hazm
Early Season
❓ Al-Fayha vs Al-Hazm Form FAQs
What form are Al-Fayha and Al-Hazm in coming into this match?
Al-Fayha have gone 1W 1D 0L in their last 2 games (2.00 PPG), while Al-Hazm have gone 0W 0D 2L in their last 2 (0.00 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 7 H2H matches in our data, going back to November 2021. All of them came in Pro League. The most recent was as recently as 22 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
Al-Fayha's record when hosting Al-Hazm specifically: 1W 2D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
2
Al-Fayha
3
Draws
2
Al-Hazm
Recent Meetings
❓ Al-Fayha vs Al-Hazm H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fayha and Al-Hazm?
Across the 7 head-to-head matches in our data, Al-Fayha have won 2, Al-Hazm have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Al-Fayha and Al-Hazm last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 22 October 2026: Al-Hazm 2-2 Al-Fayha.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Fayha home games / Al-Hazm away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Al-Fayha vs Al-Hazm Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Al-Fayha and Al-Hazm matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Al-Fayha's games and 50% of Al-Hazm's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Al-Fayha and Al-Hazm matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Al-Fayha's recent games and 50% of Al-Hazm's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Fayha and Al-Hazm matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 100% of Al-Fayha's recent matches and 100% of Al-Hazm's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Al-Fayha's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Fayha and Al-Hazm finished level at 0-0 at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium, Regular Season - 3, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Fayha 1.97 xG and Al-Hazm 1.12 xG, a combined 3.09. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Al-Fayha fell 2.0 short of their projected output. Al-Hazm landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Fayha attack 1.14 / defence 0.94 against Al-Hazm attack 0.83 / defence 1.37, drawn from 32/2 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Al-Fayha 57% | Draw 22% | Al-Hazm 21%, with Al-Fayha to win its most likely call at 57%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 81% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Fayha 50%, Al-Hazm 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 75%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Fayha arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 0.00. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Al-Fayha managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Al-Hazm conceded 0 against a 2.50 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.