Al-Fayha 0-1 Al-Ettifaq – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Ettifaq at 35%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Fayha vs Al-Ettifaq fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium plays host to Al-Fayha versus Al-Ettifaq in Pro League, Regular Season - 30. Kick-off: Monday 27 June 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
Al-Fayha's overall Pro League record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: W L D L D. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
At home at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium, Al-Fayha have gone 4W 4D 2L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 0.30 conceded per game. 8 clean sheets from 10 home games (80%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Al-Fayha are significantly better at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Al-Ettifaq (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Pro League outings this term — 1.10 points per game. Last five: W L W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Al-Ettifaq away from home this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.90 vs 1.10 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Both sides have a clean-sheet tendency (using home/away splits) — Al-Fayha have seen both teams score in just 10% of their matches, Al-Ettifaq in only 30%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from the form record of both squads.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Al-Fayha 0W, Al-Ettifaq 0W, 1D.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 31 Dec 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Al-Fayha half-time and goal-timing data (29 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 14% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 7% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time; they fail to score in 41% of games.
Al-Ettifaq half-time and goal-timing data (29 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Fayha 34% versus Al-Ettifaq 55%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Al-Fayha 17% | Al-Ettifaq 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Fayha 0.84 xG and Al-Ettifaq 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Fayha attack 0.660 / defence 0.755 | Al-Ettifaq attack 0.903 / defence 1.187. League average goals — home 1.074 / away 1.331. Al-Fayha's attack strength of 0.660 is below the league average — the 0.84 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Al-Fayha's defence rating of 0.755 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 29 Al-Fayha games / 29 Al-Ettifaq games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Fayha 31% | Draw 33% | Al-Ettifaq 35%. Fair-value odds: Al-Fayha 3.23 | Draw 3.03 | Al-Ettifaq 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 26% | BTTS probability 34% | Total xG 1.75. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 74% probability — total xG of 1.75 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 66% — Al-Fayha's lower xG of 0.84 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 34%.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Ettifaq at 35% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Ettifaq if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 1.75 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 26% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 34% on No. Form rates corroborate: Al-Fayha 10% | Al-Ettifaq 30% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Fayha vs Al-Ettifaq | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium • Kick-off: Monday 27 Jun 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Fayha 31% | Draw 33% | Al-Ettifaq 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 26% | BTTS 34% | xG Al-Fayha 0.84 / Al-Ettifaq 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Fayha attack 0.660 / def 0.755 | Al-Ettifaq attack 0.903 / def 1.187 | league avg home 1.074 / away 1.331 • Poisson stance: Al-Ettifaq (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.84
Al-Fayha xG
Expected Goals
0.91
Al-Ettifaq xG
34%
BTTS
52%
Over 1.5
26%
Over 2.5
10%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Fayha vs Al-Ettifaq kick off?
Al-Fayha vs Al-Ettifaq kicked off at 19:00 on Monday 27 June 2022 at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Fayha vs Al-Ettifaq?
Al-Fayha 0 - 1 Al-Ettifaq.
Where is Al-Fayha vs Al-Ettifaq being played?
The match is being played at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium.
What competition is Al-Fayha vs Al-Ettifaq part of?
Al-Fayha vs Al-Ettifaq is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Fayha vs Al-Ettifaq?
Our statistical model gives Al-Fayha a 31% chance of winning, Al-Ettifaq a 35% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Al-Ettifaq the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Fayha vs Al-Ettifaq?
Our model estimates a 34% probability that both Al-Fayha and Al-Ettifaq will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Fayha vs Al-Ettifaq have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 26%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fayha and Al-Ettifaq?
Record (1 meetings): Al-Fayha 0W | Draws 1 | Al-Ettifaq 0W.
What form are Al-Fayha and Al-Ettifaq in?
Al-Fayha (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-D-L-D. Al-Ettifaq (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Al-Fayha's attack at 0.66x the league average against Al-Ettifaq's defence at 1.19x — combine the two and it projects 0.84 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Al-Ettifaq's attack (0.90x) against Al-Fayha's defence (0.76x) — and the away total comes out at 0.91.
These ratings are built from 29/29 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 19.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.0%), 0-1 (14.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 48% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ettifaq Win
31%
3.18
33%
2.99
35%
2.85
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
17.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
15.8%
Away win
1 – 0
14.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.84
Al-Fayha xG
Total xG
1.75
0.91
Al-Ettifaq xG
3.18
31%
Home win
2.99
33%
Draw
2.85
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
52%
Over 1.5
1.92
48%
Under 1.5
2.08
26%
Over 2.5
3.85
74%
Under 2.5
1.35
10%
Over 3.5
10.00
90%
Under 3.5
1.11
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
34%
BTTS Yes
2.95
66%
BTTS No
1.51
Clean Sheet
40%
2.48
43%
2.32
Win to Nil
13%
7.88
15%
6.61
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 17.4 | 15.8 | 7.2 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.6 | 13.3 | 6.0 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 5.6 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Fayha vs Al-Ettifaq?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 19.1%.
How many goals are Al-Fayha and Al-Ettifaq expected to score?
The model projects 0.84 expected goals for Al-Fayha and 0.91 for Al-Ettifaq, a combined total of 1.75.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Fayha vs Al-Ettifaq?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Al-Fayha come into this having played 29 games, going 8W 11D 10L for 1.21 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-L-D.
On the other side, Al-Ettifaq sit at 1.07 PPG from 29 outings (7W 10D 12L), a run that reads W-L-W-D-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.21 PPG for Al-Fayha against 1.07 for Al-Ettifaq. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Al-Fayha's home form reads 7W 5D 2L across 14 games on their own ground, a 1.86 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.21 PPG overall — Al-Fayha are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Al-Ettifaq have taken 1.00 points per game from 14 outings (3W 5D 6L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Fayha come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al-Fayha are averaging 0.72 goals scored and 0.79 conceded per game recently; Al-Ettifaq are on 1.34 scored and 1.62 conceded.
Defensively: Al-Fayha have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 29 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Fayha
Current Season
Al-Ettifaq
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Fayha and Al-Ettifaq in coming into this match?
Al-Fayha have gone 8W 11D 10L in their last 29 games (1.21 PPG), while Al-Ettifaq have gone 7W 10D 12L in their last 29 (1.07 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Fayha at home or Al-Ettifaq away?
Al-Fayha's home record (1.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Fayha at home: 1.86 PPG; Al-Ettifaq away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Al-Fayha or Al-Ettifaq been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Fayha have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their recent games, Al-Ettifaq in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 13 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al-Ettifaq won 0-3 on 11 Oct 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Fayha have gone 1W 2D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Al-Ettifaq — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Al-Fayha
3
Draws
4
Al-Ettifaq
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fayha and Al-Ettifaq?
From 10 meetings on record, Al-Fayha have won 3, Al-Ettifaq have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Al-Fayha and Al-Ettifaq last play each other?
They last met on 13 March 2026, when Al-Fayha 1-0 Al-Ettifaq.
Who has won more matches between Al-Fayha and Al-Ettifaq?
Al-Ettifaq have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Al-Fayha see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Al-Ettifaq are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 14% (Al-Fayha) and 50% (Al-Ettifaq) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 7% for Al-Fayha and 57% for Al-Ettifaq.
On the defensive side: Al-Fayha keep a clean sheet in 79% of their matches; Al-Fayha have failed to score in 36% of games; Al-Ettifaq in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Fayha home games / Al-Ettifaq away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Fayha play Al-Ettifaq?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 14% of Al-Fayha's recent matches and 50% of Al-Ettifaq's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Fayha vs Al-Ettifaq usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 7% of Al-Fayha's recent games and 57% of Al-Ettifaq's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Fayha and Al-Ettifaq tend to score early?
Al-Fayha have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Al-Ettifaq in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Al-Ettifaq edge out Al-Fayha 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Ettifaq beat Al-Fayha 0-1 at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium, Regular Season - 30, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Fayha 0.84 xG and Al-Ettifaq 0.91 xG, a combined 1.75. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Al-Fayha fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Fayha attack 0.66 / defence 0.76 against Al-Ettifaq attack 0.90 / defence 1.19, drawn from 29/29 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Fayha 31% | Draw 33% | Al-Ettifaq 35%, with Al-Ettifaq to win its most likely call at 35%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 26%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 52% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 34% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Fayha 17%, Al-Ettifaq 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Fayha's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 34% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 41% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Al-Ettifaq's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al-Fayha 1.21 PPG, Al-Ettifaq 1.07 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al-Ettifaq win broke the near-deadlock. Al-Ettifaq (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.79 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.