Al-Fayha 2-0 Al-Ahli Jeddah – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Fayha at 41% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Fayha vs Al-Ahli Jeddah encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 6 sees Al-Ahli Jeddah travel to Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium to take on Al-Fayha. The game is scheduled for Thursday 23 September 2021, 16:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Fayha stand at 2W 1D 1L from 4 Pro League matches — 1.75 PPG. Last five: W D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 4 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 75% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Al-Fayha have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al-Ahli Jeddah — All Games: 0W 5D 0L from 5 Pro League fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D D D D D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Al-Ahli Jeddah have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al-Fayha carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.75 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.75 vs 1.00. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Both teams score in over 75% of each side's relevant games (using overall form). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
In-Play Profile
Al-Fayha in-play tendencies (4 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games.
Al-Ahli Jeddah in-play tendencies (4 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 50% of cases; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al-Fayha 75% and Al-Ahli Jeddah 100% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Al-Fayha 50% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 25%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Fayha 1.32 xG and Al-Ahli Jeddah 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Fayha attack 0.911 / defence 0.992 | Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 0.855 / defence 1.126. League average goals — home 1.290 / away 1.142. Data: 4 Al-Fayha games / 5 Al-Ahli Jeddah games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Fayha 41% | Draw 36% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 23%. Fair-value odds: Al-Fayha 2.44 | Draw 2.78 | Al-Ahli Jeddah 4.35. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 36% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.29. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.29 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Al-Fayha as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 36% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Fayha offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.29 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 40% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. This conflicts with form data: Al-Fayha 75% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 100% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Fayha vs Al-Ahli Jeddah | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 23 Sep 2021, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Fayha 41% | Draw 36% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 49% | xG Al-Fayha 1.32 / Al-Ahli Jeddah 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Fayha attack 0.911 / def 0.992 | Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 0.855 / def 1.126 | league avg home 1.290 / away 1.142 • Poisson stance: Al-Fayha (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.32
Al-Fayha xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Al-Ahli Jeddah xG
49%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Fayha vs Al-Ahli Jeddah kick off?
Al-Fayha vs Al-Ahli Jeddah kicked off at 16:30 on Thursday 23 September 2021 at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Fayha vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Al-Fayha 2 - 0 Al-Ahli Jeddah.
Where is Al-Fayha vs Al-Ahli Jeddah being played?
The match is being played at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium.
What competition is Al-Fayha vs Al-Ahli Jeddah part of?
Al-Fayha vs Al-Ahli Jeddah is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Fayha vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Our statistical model gives Al-Fayha a 41% chance of winning, Al-Ahli Jeddah a 23% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw — making Al-Fayha the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Fayha vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Al-Fayha and Al-Ahli Jeddah will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Fayha vs Al-Ahli Jeddah have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fayha and Al-Ahli Jeddah?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Al-Fayha and Al-Ahli Jeddah in?
Al-Fayha (all comps): 2W-1D-1L in 4 | 1.75 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-W-L. Al-Ahli Jeddah (all comps): 0W-5D-0L in 5 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Al-Fayha's attack rating (0.91) and Al-Ahli Jeddah's defence rating (1.13), the model arrives at 1.32 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Ahli Jeddah's attack versus Al-Fayha's defence, projects 0.97 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 4/5 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.8%), 1-0 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Fayha Win
41%
2.44
36%
2.81
23%
4.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
10.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.32
Al-Fayha xG
Total xG
2.29
0.97
Al-Ahli Jeddah xG
2.44
41%
Home win
2.81
36%
Draw
4.27
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.03
51%
BTTS No
1.98
Clean Sheet
38%
2.63
27%
3.75
Win to Nil
16%
6.43
6%
16.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.1 | 9.8 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.4 | 13.0 | 6.3 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 8.6 | 4.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 3.8 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Fayha vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Al-Fayha and Al-Ahli Jeddah expected to score?
The model projects 1.32 expected goals for Al-Fayha and 0.97 for Al-Ahli Jeddah, a combined total of 2.29.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Fayha vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Al-Fayha's recent record stands at 2W 1D 1L from 4 games, a 1.75 PPG return, with W-D-W-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Al-Fayha, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al-Ahli Jeddah, meanwhile, have gone 0W 4D 0L across 4 games — 1.00 PPG, with D-D-D-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Al-Ahli Jeddah, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Al-Fayha by 0.75 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Al-Ahli Jeddah heading into this one.
The Goals Picture
Al-Fayha are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Al-Ahli Jeddah are on 1.25 scored and 1.25 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Fayha have seen both teams score in 75% of their recent games; Al-Ahli Jeddah in 100%.
Last 4 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Fayha
Early Season
Al-Ahli Jeddah
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Fayha and Al-Ahli Jeddah in coming into this match?
Al-Fayha have gone 2W 1D 1L in their last 4 games (1.75 PPG), while Al-Ahli Jeddah have gone 0W 4D 0L in their last 4 (1.00 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al-Fayha and Al-Ahli Jeddah runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 8 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 18 Apr 2025, when Al-Ahli Jeddah won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Fayha's record when hosting Al-Ahli Jeddah specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Al-Fayha
2
Draws
5
Al-Ahli Jeddah
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fayha and Al-Ahli Jeddah?
From 8 meetings on record, Al-Fayha have won 1, Al-Ahli Jeddah have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al-Fayha and Al-Ahli Jeddah last play each other?
They last met on 8 April 2026, when Al-Fayha 1-1 Al-Ahli Jeddah.
Who has won more matches between Al-Fayha and Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Al-Ahli Jeddah have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al-Fayha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Al-Ahli Jeddah are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Al-Fayha at 75%, Al-Ahli Jeddah at 100%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Al-Fayha) and 25% (Al-Ahli Jeddah).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Fayha home games / Al-Ahli Jeddah away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Fayha play Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Al-Fayha's games and 100% of Al-Ahli Jeddah's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Fayha vs Al-Ahli Jeddah usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Al-Fayha's recent games and 25% of Al-Ahli Jeddah's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Fayha and Al-Ahli Jeddah tend to score early?
Al-Fayha have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Al-Ahli Jeddah in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Fayha cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Al-Ahli Jeddah.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Fayha beat Al-Ahli Jeddah 2-0 at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium, Regular Season - 6, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Fayha 1.32 xG and Al-Ahli Jeddah 0.97 xG, a combined 2.29. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Al-Ahli Jeddah landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Fayha attack 0.91 / defence 0.99 against Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 0.85 / defence 1.13, drawn from 4/5 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Fayha 41% | Draw 36% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 23%, with Al-Fayha to win its most likely call at 41%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Fayha 50%, Al-Ahli Jeddah 25%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 88%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Fayha's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did not.
Al-Ahli Jeddah's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 100% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Fayha arrived the stronger side — 1.75 PPG against 1.00. Form held, and they took the win. Al-Fayha conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Al-Ahli Jeddah managed 0 against a 1.25 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.