Al-Fayha 0-1 Al-Ahli Jeddah – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Ahli Jeddah at 48% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Fayha vs Al-Ahli Jeddah encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 11 sees Al-Ahli Jeddah travel to King Abdullah Sport City Stadium to take on Al-Fayha. The game is scheduled for Friday 22 November 2024, 14:50 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Fayha stand at 1W 4D 5L from 10 Pro League matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: D L D D L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Al-Fayha, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Al-Fayha have posted 3W 4D 3L at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Al-Fayha are significantly better at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Al-Ahli Jeddah — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ahli Jeddah, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Ahli Jeddah away from home this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Form points away from home here. Al-Ahli Jeddah's 1.40 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Al-Fayha's 0.70 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Al-Fayha, 2 for Al-Ahli Jeddah and 1 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 27 May 2024, ended 0–1 with Al-Ahli Jeddah winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Al-Fayha in-play tendencies (44 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
Al-Ahli Jeddah in-play tendencies (44 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Fayha 59% versus Al-Ahli Jeddah 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Fayha 54% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Fayha 0.96 xG and Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.45 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Fayha attack 0.897 / defence 1.223 | Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 0.932 / defence 0.738. League average goals — home 1.453 / away 1.271. Al-Ahli Jeddah's defence strength of 0.738 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 44 Al-Fayha games / 44 Al-Ahli Jeddah games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Fayha 25% | Draw 27% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 48%. Fair-value odds: Al-Fayha 4.00 | Draw 3.70 | Al-Ahli Jeddah 2.08. Al-Ahli Jeddah hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.41. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.41 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Al-Ahli Jeddah as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Ahli Jeddah offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.41 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 43% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. Form rates are neutral: Al-Fayha 60% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Fayha vs Al-Ahli Jeddah | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: King Abdullah Sport City Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 22 Nov 2024, 14:50 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Fayha 25% | Draw 27% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 47% | xG Al-Fayha 0.96 / Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.45 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Fayha attack 0.897 / def 1.223 | Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 0.932 / def 0.738 | league avg home 1.453 / away 1.271 • Poisson stance: Al-Ahli Jeddah (48%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
0.96
Al-Fayha xG
Expected Goals
1.45
Al-Ahli Jeddah xG
47%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Fayha vs Al-Ahli Jeddah kick off?
Al-Fayha vs Al-Ahli Jeddah kicked off at 14:50 on Friday 22 November 2024 at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Fayha vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Al-Fayha 0 - 1 Al-Ahli Jeddah.
Where is Al-Fayha vs Al-Ahli Jeddah being played?
The match is being played at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium.
What competition is Al-Fayha vs Al-Ahli Jeddah part of?
Al-Fayha vs Al-Ahli Jeddah is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Fayha vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Our statistical model gives Al-Fayha a 25% chance of winning, Al-Ahli Jeddah a 48% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Al-Ahli Jeddah the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Fayha vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Al-Fayha and Al-Ahli Jeddah will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Fayha vs Al-Ahli Jeddah have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fayha and Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Record (4 meetings): Al-Fayha 1W | Draws 1 | Al-Ahli Jeddah 2W.
What form are Al-Fayha and Al-Ahli Jeddah in?
Al-Fayha (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-L-D-D-L. Al-Ahli Jeddah (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-D-L-W.
What do the betting odds say about Al-Fayha vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Al-Fayha's attack rating (0.90) and Al-Ahli Jeddah's defence rating (0.74), the model arrives at 0.96 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Ahli Jeddah's attack versus Al-Fayha's defence, projects 1.45 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.1%. Close behind: 0-1 (11.4%), 0-0 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ahli Jeddah Win
25%
3.99
27%
3.76
48%
2.07
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.0%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
0 – 2
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.96
Al-Fayha xG
Total xG
2.41
1.45
Al-Ahli Jeddah xG
3.99
25%
Home win
3.76
27%
Draw
2.07
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.11
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
23%
4.26
38%
2.62
Win to Nil
6%
16.99
18%
5.42
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.0 | 13.0 | 9.4 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 12.5 | 9.1 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 6.0 | 4.4 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Fayha vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Al-Fayha and Al-Ahli Jeddah expected to score?
The model projects 0.96 expected goals for Al-Fayha and 1.45 for Al-Ahli Jeddah, a combined total of 2.41.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Fayha vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Al-Fayha's recent record stands at 12W 15D 17L from 44 games, a 1.16 PPG return, with D-L-D-D-L in the last five. The sample for Al-Fayha is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Ahli Jeddah, meanwhile, have gone 23W 10D 11L across 44 games — 1.80 PPG, with L-W-D-L-W in their last five. The sample for Al-Ahli Jeddah is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Al-Ahli Jeddah by 0.64 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Al-Fayha heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Al-Fayha have managed 5W 8D 8L from 21 games — 1.10 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al-Ahli Jeddah's away record stands at 8W 5D 8L across 21 trips, a 1.38 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.80 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Al-Ahli Jeddah's season.
The Goals Picture
Al-Fayha are averaging 1.16 goals scored and 1.61 conceded per game recently; Al-Ahli Jeddah are on 1.84 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Defensively: Al-Ahli Jeddah in 41% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 44 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Fayha
Blended
Al-Ahli Jeddah
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Fayha and Al-Ahli Jeddah in coming into this match?
Al-Fayha have gone 12W 15D 17L in their last 44 games (1.16 PPG), while Al-Ahli Jeddah have gone 23W 10D 11L in their last 44 (1.80 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Fayha at home or Al-Ahli Jeddah away?
Al-Ahli Jeddah's away record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Fayha at home: 1.10 PPG; Al-Ahli Jeddah away: 1.38 PPG.
Have Al-Fayha or Al-Ahli Jeddah been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Fayha have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Al-Ahli Jeddah in 41%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al-Fayha and Al-Ahli Jeddah runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 8 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 18 Apr 2025, when Al-Ahli Jeddah won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Fayha's record when hosting Al-Ahli Jeddah specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Al-Fayha
2
Draws
5
Al-Ahli Jeddah
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fayha and Al-Ahli Jeddah?
From 8 meetings on record, Al-Fayha have won 1, Al-Ahli Jeddah have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al-Fayha and Al-Ahli Jeddah last play each other?
They last met on 8 April 2026, when Al-Fayha 1-1 Al-Ahli Jeddah.
Who has won more matches between Al-Fayha and Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Al-Ahli Jeddah have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al-Fayha see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Al-Ahli Jeddah are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Fayha 48%, Al-Ahli Jeddah 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Al-Fayha) and 62% (Al-Ahli Jeddah).
On the defensive side: Al-Fayha keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Al-Ahli Jeddah in 33%; Al-Fayha have failed to score in 38% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Fayha home games / Al-Ahli Jeddah away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Fayha play Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Al-Fayha's recent matches and 52% of Al-Ahli Jeddah's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Fayha vs Al-Ahli Jeddah usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Al-Fayha's recent games and 62% of Al-Ahli Jeddah's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Fayha and Al-Ahli Jeddah tend to score early?
Al-Fayha have had a goal before half-time in 57% of their recent matches, Al-Ahli Jeddah in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Al-Ahli Jeddah edge out Al-Fayha 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Ahli Jeddah beat Al-Fayha 0-1 at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium, Regular Season - 11, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Fayha 0.96 xG and Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.45 xG, a combined 2.41. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Al-Fayha fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Fayha attack 0.90 / defence 1.22 against Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 0.93 / defence 0.74, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Fayha 25% | Draw 27% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 48%, with Al-Ahli Jeddah to win its most likely call at 48%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Fayha 54%, Al-Ahli Jeddah 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Fayha's trading profile (44 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Al-Ahli Jeddah's trading profile (44 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Ahli Jeddah arrived the stronger side — 1.80 PPG against 1.16. Form held, and they took the win. Al-Fayha (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.05 scoring average — below par going forward. Al-Ahli Jeddah (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.86 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.