Al-Fayha 1-1 Al-Adalah – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Fayha at 62% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Fayha vs Al-Adalah encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium plays host to Al-Fayha versus Al-Adalah in Pro League, Regular Season - 21. Kick-off: Friday 17 March 2023 at 13:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Al-Fayha have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: W D D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al-Fayha, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Al-Fayha have posted 3W 2D 5L at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.10 lags behind their overall 1.80 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium this season.
Al-Adalah's overall Pro League record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: L D W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Al-Adalah, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Adalah's away record: 1W 2D 7L from 10 road trips in Pro League this season (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The points-per-game gap of 0.60 in Al-Fayha's favour (1.80 vs 1.20) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Al-Fayha 0W, Al-Adalah 1W, 0D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 7 Oct 2022, ended 1–2 with Al-Adalah winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Al-Fayha half-time and goal-timing data (20 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Al-Adalah half-time and goal-timing data (20 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); they fail to score in 50% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Fayha 55% versus Al-Adalah 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Fayha 50% | Al-Adalah 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Fayha 2.00 xG and Al-Adalah 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Fayha attack 1.004 / defence 0.895 | Al-Adalah attack 0.781 / defence 1.422. League average goals — home 1.405 / away 1.325. Al-Adalah bring a strong defensive rating of 1.422 — this is suppressing Al-Fayha's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 49 Al-Fayha games / 20 Al-Adalah games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Fayha 62% | Draw 21% | Al-Adalah 17%. Fair-value odds: Al-Fayha 1.61 | Draw 4.76 | Al-Adalah 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Al-Fayha (62%) — a 45pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.93. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.93 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Al-Fayha as the most likely outcome at 62% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.93 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Al-Fayha 40% | Al-Adalah 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Fayha vs Al-Adalah | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 17 Mar 2023, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Fayha 62% | Draw 21% | Al-Adalah 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 52% | xG Al-Fayha 2.00 / Al-Adalah 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Fayha attack 1.004 / def 0.895 | Al-Adalah attack 0.781 / def 1.422 | league avg home 1.405 / away 1.325 • Poisson stance: Al-Fayha (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.00
Al-Fayha xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Al-Adalah xG
52%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Fayha vs Al-Adalah kick off?
Al-Fayha vs Al-Adalah kicked off at 13:00 on Friday 17 March 2023 at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Fayha vs Al-Adalah?
Al-Fayha 1 - 1 Al-Adalah.
Where is Al-Fayha vs Al-Adalah being played?
The match is being played at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium.
What competition is Al-Fayha vs Al-Adalah part of?
Al-Fayha vs Al-Adalah is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Fayha vs Al-Adalah?
Our statistical model gives Al-Fayha a 62% chance of winning, Al-Adalah a 17% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Al-Fayha the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Fayha vs Al-Adalah?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Al-Fayha and Al-Adalah will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Fayha vs Al-Adalah have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fayha and Al-Adalah?
Record (1 meetings): Al-Fayha 0W | Draws 0 | Al-Adalah 1W.
What form are Al-Fayha and Al-Adalah in?
Al-Fayha (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-D-W-L. Al-Adalah (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-D-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Al-Fayha's attack rating (1.00) and Al-Adalah's defence rating (1.42), the model arrives at 2.00 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Al-Adalah's attack (0.78x) against Al-Fayha's defence (0.90x) — and the away total comes out at 0.93.
These ratings are built from 49/20 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.2%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.7%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Fayha Win
62%
1.61
21%
4.72
17%
6.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
10.7%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
10.7%
Home win
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.00
Al-Fayha xG
Total xG
2.93
0.93
Al-Adalah xG
1.61
62%
Home win
4.72
21%
Draw
6.06
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
40%
2.53
13%
7.43
Win to Nil
25%
4.06
2%
44.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 4.9 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 10.7 | 9.9 | 4.6 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.7 | 9.9 | 4.6 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.2 | 6.6 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.6 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Fayha vs Al-Adalah?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.2%.
How many goals are Al-Fayha and Al-Adalah expected to score?
The model projects 2.00 expected goals for Al-Fayha and 0.93 for Al-Adalah, a combined total of 2.93.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Fayha vs Al-Adalah?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Al-Fayha come into this having played 20 games, going 6W 5D 9L for 1.15 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-D-W-L. The sample for Al-Fayha is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Al-Adalah sit at 0.80 PPG from 20 outings (4W 4D 12L), a run that reads L-D-W-W-L across their last five. The sample for Al-Adalah is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.15 PPG for Al-Fayha against 0.80 for Al-Adalah. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Al-Fayha's home form reads 3W 2D 4L across 9 games on their own ground, a 1.22 PPG return.
Away from home, Al-Adalah have taken 0.56 points per game from 9 outings (1W 2D 6L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Fayha come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al-Fayha are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.55 conceded per game recently; Al-Adalah are on 0.80 scored and 1.90 conceded.
Last 20 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Fayha
Blended
Al-Adalah
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Fayha and Al-Adalah in coming into this match?
Al-Fayha have gone 6W 5D 9L in their last 20 games (1.15 PPG), while Al-Adalah have gone 4W 4D 12L in their last 20 (0.80 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Fayha at home or Al-Adalah away?
Al-Fayha's home record (1.22 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Fayha at home: 1.22 PPG; Al-Adalah away: 0.56 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since October 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 17 March 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Al-Fayha
1
Draws
1
Al-Adalah
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fayha and Al-Adalah?
From 2 meetings on record, Al-Fayha have won 0, Al-Adalah have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al-Fayha and Al-Adalah last play each other?
They last met on 17 March 2023, when Al-Fayha 1-1 Al-Adalah.
Who has won more matches between Al-Fayha and Al-Adalah?
Al-Adalah have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Al-Fayha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Al-Adalah are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Fayha 44%, Al-Adalah 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Al-Fayha) and 67% (Al-Adalah). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 11% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Fayha have failed to score in 33% of games; Al-Adalah in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Fayha home games / Al-Adalah away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Fayha play Al-Adalah?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Al-Fayha's recent matches and 56% of Al-Adalah's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Fayha vs Al-Adalah usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 44% of Al-Fayha's matches and 67% of Al-Adalah's.
Do Al-Fayha and Al-Adalah tend to score early?
Al-Fayha have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Al-Adalah in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Fayha and Al-Adalah share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Fayha and Al-Adalah finished level at 1-1 at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium, Regular Season - 21, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Fayha 2.00 xG and Al-Adalah 0.93 xG, a combined 2.93. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Al-Fayha fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Fayha attack 1.00 / defence 0.90 against Al-Adalah attack 0.78 / defence 1.42, drawn from 49/20 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Fayha 62% | Draw 21% | Al-Adalah 17%, with Al-Fayha to win its most likely call at 62%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Fayha 50%, Al-Adalah 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Fayha's trading profile (20 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Al-Adalah's trading profile (20 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al-Fayha 1.15 PPG, Al-Adalah 0.80 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Al-Adalah (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.33 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.