Al-Fateh 1-2 Al Khaleej Saihat – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Al Khaleej Saihat at 41% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Fateh vs Al Khaleej Saihat encounter.

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Analysis & Preview

Al Khaleej Saihat travel to Al Fateh Club Stadium to take on Al-Fateh in Pro League (matchday 10). The game is scheduled for Saturday 9 November 2024 at 14:30 UK time.

Recent Form

Across their last 10 games, Al-Fateh have gone 1W 2D 7L — a 0.50 PPG return. Last five: L L D L D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Al-Fateh at home: 4W 3D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — Al-Fateh are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Looking at their last 10 matches, Al Khaleej Saihat stand at 4W 1D 5L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L W L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.

Al Khaleej Saihat's form when playing away from home: 5W 2D 3L across their last 10 road games (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.

The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Al Khaleej Saihat are 0.80 PPG ahead (1.30 vs 0.50), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.

H2H

The H2H picture is flat: the 4 H2H matches we hold have produced 3 wins for Al-Fateh, 1 for Al Khaleej Saihat and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.

These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.0 per game across the 4 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 9 Mar 2024, ended Al-Fateh 1–2 Al Khaleej Saihat — a Al Khaleej Saihat win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Data

Al-Fateh trading profile (last 43 games, 21 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 42%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.

Al Khaleej Saihat trading profile (last 43 games, 21 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 86% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al-Fateh 74% and Al Khaleej Saihat 51% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Fateh 63% | Al Khaleej Saihat 44%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Fateh 1.39 xG and Al Khaleej Saihat 1.53 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Fateh attack 0.948 / defence 1.194 | Al Khaleej Saihat attack 1.014 / defence 1.006. League average goals — home 1.462 / away 1.262. Data: built from Al-Fateh's last 43 games and Al Khaleej Saihat's last 43.

Result probabilities: Al-Fateh 35% | Draw 25% | Al Khaleej Saihat 41%. Fair-value odds: Al-Fateh 2.88 | Draw 4.06 | Al Khaleej Saihat 2.46. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS Yes probability 59% | Total xG 2.92. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.92 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 59% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Al Khaleej Saihat as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al Khaleej Saihat offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.92 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Al-Fateh's last 10 home games and Al Khaleej Saihat's last 10 away games) averaging 2.7 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 4 H2H matches.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Al-Fateh 80% (last 10 home games) | Al Khaleej Saihat 50% (last 10 away games).

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