Al-Fateh 4-1 Al-Faisaly FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Fateh at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Fateh vs Al-Faisaly FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Al-Fateh host Al-Faisaly FC at Prince Abdullah bin Jalawi Sports City Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off is scheduled for Tuesday 22 February 2022 at 14:15 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Fateh stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Pro League matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D D L L W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Al-Fateh, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Al-Fateh have posted 2W 2D 5L at Prince Abdullah bin Jalawi Sports City Stadium — 0.89 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game.
Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Faisaly FC have recorded 1W 4D 5L from 10 outings — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L W D D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Al-Faisaly FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Al-Faisaly FC have gone 0W 4D 5L from 9 away fixtures this term (0.44 PPG). Away from home they average 0.33 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Al-Fateh at 0.90 PPG versus Al-Faisaly FC's 0.70. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
In-Play Profile
Al-Fateh in-play tendencies (20 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Al-Faisaly FC in-play tendencies (20 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 22% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Fateh 40% versus Al-Faisaly FC 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Fateh 35% | Al-Faisaly FC 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Fateh 1.40 xG and Al-Faisaly FC 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Fateh attack 0.993 / defence 1.548 | Al-Faisaly FC attack 0.511 / defence 1.248. League average goals — home 1.129 / away 1.183. Al-Faisaly FC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.248 — this is suppressing Al-Fateh's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 20 Al-Fateh games / 20 Al-Faisaly FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Fateh 46% | Draw 30% | Al-Faisaly FC 24%. Fair-value odds: Al-Fateh 2.17 | Draw 3.33 | Al-Faisaly FC 4.17. Al-Fateh hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.33. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.33 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Fateh at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Fateh offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.33 combined xG gives a 41% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al-Fateh 44% | Al-Faisaly FC 33% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Fateh vs Al-Faisaly FC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Prince Abdullah bin Jalawi Sports City Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 22 Feb 2022, 14:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Fateh 46% | Draw 30% | Al-Faisaly FC 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 47% | xG Al-Fateh 1.40 / Al-Faisaly FC 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Fateh attack 0.993 / def 1.548 | Al-Faisaly FC attack 0.511 / def 1.248 | league avg home 1.129 / away 1.183 • Poisson stance: Al-Fateh (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
Al-Fateh xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Al-Faisaly FC xG
47%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Fateh vs Al-Faisaly FC kick off?
Al-Fateh vs Al-Faisaly FC kicked off at 14:15 on Tuesday 22 February 2022 at Prince Abdullah bin Jalawi Sports City Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Fateh vs Al-Faisaly FC?
Al-Fateh 4 - 1 Al-Faisaly FC.
Where is Al-Fateh vs Al-Faisaly FC being played?
The match is being played at Prince Abdullah bin Jalawi Sports City Stadium.
What competition is Al-Fateh vs Al-Faisaly FC part of?
Al-Fateh vs Al-Faisaly FC is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Fateh vs Al-Faisaly FC?
Our statistical model gives Al-Fateh a 46% chance of winning, Al-Faisaly FC a 24% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Al-Fateh the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Fateh vs Al-Faisaly FC?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Al-Fateh and Al-Faisaly FC will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Fateh vs Al-Faisaly FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fateh and Al-Faisaly FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Al-Fateh and Al-Faisaly FC in?
Al-Fateh (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-D-L-L-W. Al-Faisaly FC (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Al-Fateh's attacking strength (0.99x league average) is weighed against Al-Faisaly FC's defensive record (1.25x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.40. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Faisaly FC's attack versus Al-Fateh's defence, projects 0.94 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 20/20 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.9%), 0-0 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Fateh Win
46%
2.15
30%
3.37
24%
4.19
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
0 – 0
9.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
Al-Fateh xG
Total xG
2.33
0.94
Al-Faisaly FC xG
2.15
46%
Home win
3.37
30%
Draw
4.19
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.13
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
39%
2.55
25%
4.06
Win to Nil
18%
5.48
6%
17.00
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.7 | 9.1 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.6 | 12.7 | 5.9 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.5 | 8.9 | 4.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 4.1 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Fateh vs Al-Faisaly FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Al-Fateh and Al-Faisaly FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Al-Fateh and 0.94 for Al-Faisaly FC, a combined total of 2.33.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Fateh vs Al-Faisaly FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Al-Fateh's recent record stands at 5W 6D 9L from 20 games, a 1.05 PPG return, with D-D-L-L-W in the last five. The sample for Al-Fateh is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Faisaly FC, meanwhile, have gone 4W 9D 7L across 20 games — 1.05 PPG, with L-L-W-D-D in their last five. The sample for Al-Faisaly FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al-Fateh on 1.05 PPG, Al-Faisaly FC on 1.05. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Al-Fateh have managed 2W 2D 5L from 9 games — 0.89 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al-Faisaly FC's away record stands at 0W 4D 5L across 9 trips, a 0.44 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.05 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Al-Faisaly FC's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Fateh come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Al-Fateh are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Al-Faisaly FC are on 1.00 scored and 1.30 conceded.
Last 20 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Fateh
Blended
Al-Faisaly FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Fateh and Al-Faisaly FC in coming into this match?
Al-Fateh have gone 5W 6D 9L in their last 20 games (1.05 PPG), while Al-Faisaly FC have gone 4W 9D 7L in their last 20 (1.05 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Fateh at home or Al-Faisaly FC away?
Al-Fateh's home record (0.89 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Fateh at home: 0.89 PPG; Al-Faisaly FC away: 0.44 PPG.
Have Al-Fateh or Al-Faisaly FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Fateh have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Al-Faisaly FC in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to February 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 17 March 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Al-Fateh
0
Draws
1
Al-Faisaly FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fateh and Al-Faisaly FC?
From 2 meetings on record, Al-Fateh have won 1, Al-Faisaly FC have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al-Fateh and Al-Faisaly FC last play each other?
They last met on 17 March 2022, when Al-Faisaly FC 1-0 Al-Fateh.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al-Fateh are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Al-Faisaly FC see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Fateh 44%, Al-Faisaly FC 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 44% for Al-Fateh and 22% for Al-Faisaly FC.
On the defensive side: Al-Fateh have failed to score in 33% of games; Al-Faisaly FC in 67%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Fateh home games / Al-Faisaly FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Fateh play Al-Faisaly FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Al-Fateh's recent matches and 33% of Al-Faisaly FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Fateh vs Al-Faisaly FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Al-Fateh's recent games and 22% of Al-Faisaly FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Fateh and Al-Faisaly FC tend to score early?
Al-Fateh have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Al-Faisaly FC in 56% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Al-Fateh run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Al-Faisaly FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Fateh beat Al-Faisaly FC 4-1 at Prince Abdullah bin Jalawi Sports City Stadium, Regular Season - 10, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Fateh 1.40 xG and Al-Faisaly FC 0.94 xG, a combined 2.33. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Al-Fateh beat their projection by 2.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Fateh attack 0.99 / defence 1.55 against Al-Faisaly FC attack 0.51 / defence 1.25, drawn from 20/20 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Fateh 46% | Draw 30% | Al-Faisaly FC 24%, with Al-Fateh to win its most likely call at 46%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Fateh 35%, Al-Faisaly FC 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Fateh's trading profile (20 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Al-Faisaly FC's trading profile (20 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al-Fateh 1.05 PPG, Al-Faisaly FC 1.05 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al-Fateh win broke the near-deadlock. Al-Fateh (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.67 average — above their attacking norm. Al-Faisaly FC (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.44 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.