Al-Fateh 0-1 Al-Ahli Jeddah – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Al-Fateh at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Fateh vs Al-Ahli Jeddah fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Full Analysis

Prince Abdullah bin Jalawi Sports City Stadium plays host to Al-Fateh versus Al-Ahli Jeddah in Pro League, Regular Season - 20. Kick-off: Friday 11 February 2022 at 14:10 UTC.

Current Form

Al-Fateh's overall Pro League record this term: 1W 3D 6L from 10 games (0.60 PPG). Last five: L L D D L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al-Fateh, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Al-Fateh's form when playing at home: 2W 2D 4L across 8 games at Prince Abdullah bin Jalawi Sports City Stadium this term (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.88 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game.

Al-Ahli Jeddah have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: L D W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ahli Jeddah, so this record blends games from this season and last.

When travelling in Pro League this season, Al-Ahli Jeddah have posted 1W 4D 4L from 9 away outings — 0.78 PPG. Away from home they average 0.89 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 56% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

A near-identical PPG reading — 0.60 for Al-Fateh, 1.00 for Al-Ahli Jeddah — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.

Head-to-Head

Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Al-Fateh 0W, Al-Ahli Jeddah 0W, 1D.

The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 17 Sep 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading

Al-Fateh half-time and goal-timing data (18 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.

Al-Ahli Jeddah half-time and goal-timing data (18 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 83% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Fateh 44% versus Al-Ahli Jeddah 61%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Al-Fateh 39% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 33%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Fateh 1.63 xG and Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.50 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Fateh attack 1.164 / defence 1.622 | Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 0.776 / defence 1.268. League average goals — home 1.105 / away 1.188. Al-Ahli Jeddah bring a strong defensive rating of 1.268 — this is suppressing Al-Fateh's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 18 Al-Fateh games / 19 Al-Ahli Jeddah games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Al-Fateh 40% | Draw 26% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 34%. Fair-value odds: Al-Fateh 2.50 | Draw 3.85 | Al-Ahli Jeddah 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.13. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.13 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.63 / 1.50) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Fateh at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Fateh if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 3.13 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 60% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 64% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Al-Fateh 50% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 56%.

The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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