Al-Fateh 2-1 Al-Ahli Jeddah – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Ahli Jeddah at 46% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Fateh vs Al-Ahli Jeddah encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Al Fateh club stadium plays host to Al-Fateh versus Al-Ahli Jeddah in Pro League, Regular Season - 11. Kick-off: Friday 26 December 2025 at 13:05 UTC.
Current Form
Al-Fateh's overall Pro League record this term: 2W 2D 6L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: L W D L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 2.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Al-Fateh, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Fateh's form when playing at home: 5W 0D 5L across 10 games at Al Fateh club stadium this term (1.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Al-Fateh are significantly better at Al Fateh club stadium than their overall form suggests.
Al-Ahli Jeddah have collected 2.20 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 6W 4D 0L. Last five: D W D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ahli Jeddah, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Al-Ahli Jeddah have posted 7W 1D 2L from 10 away outings — 2.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
On a straight form reading, Al-Ahli Jeddah are the stronger side — 1.40 PPG clear of the hosts (2.20 vs 0.80). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 6 meetings: Al-Fateh 2W, Al-Ahli Jeddah 2W, 2D.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 7 Feb 2025, ended 0–2 with Al-Ahli Jeddah winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Al-Fateh half-time and goal-timing data (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 81% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games).
Al-Ahli Jeddah half-time and goal-timing data (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; they lead at the break 49% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Fateh 70% versus Al-Ahli Jeddah 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Fateh 63% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Fateh 1.05 xG and Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.53 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Fateh attack 1.031 / defence 1.185 | Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 0.867 / defence 0.685. League average goals — home 1.491 / away 1.491. Al-Ahli Jeddah's defence strength of 0.685 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 43 Al-Fateh games / 43 Al-Ahli Jeddah games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Fateh 24% | Draw 30% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 46%. Fair-value odds: Al-Fateh 4.17 | Draw 3.33 | Al-Ahli Jeddah 2.17. Al-Ahli Jeddah hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.59. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.59 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Ahli Jeddah at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Ahli Jeddah if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.59 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 48% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.1 goals per game points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al-Fateh 80% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Fateh vs Al-Ahli Jeddah | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Al Fateh club stadium • Kick-off: Friday 26 Dec 2025, 13:05 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Fateh 24% | Draw 30% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 53% | xG Al-Fateh 1.05 / Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.53 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Fateh attack 1.031 / def 1.185 | Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 0.867 / def 0.685 | league avg home 1.491 / away 1.491 • Poisson stance: Al-Ahli Jeddah (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.05
Al-Fateh xG
Expected Goals
1.53
Al-Ahli Jeddah xG
53%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Fateh vs Al-Ahli Jeddah kick off?
Al-Fateh vs Al-Ahli Jeddah kicked off at 13:05 on Friday 26 December 2025 at Al Fateh club stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Fateh vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Al-Fateh 2 - 1 Al-Ahli Jeddah.
Where is Al-Fateh vs Al-Ahli Jeddah being played?
The match is being played at Al Fateh club stadium.
What competition is Al-Fateh vs Al-Ahli Jeddah part of?
Al-Fateh vs Al-Ahli Jeddah is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Fateh vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Our statistical model gives Al-Fateh a 24% chance of winning, Al-Ahli Jeddah a 46% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Al-Ahli Jeddah the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Fateh vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Al-Fateh and Al-Ahli Jeddah will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Fateh vs Al-Ahli Jeddah have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fateh and Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Record (6 meetings): Al-Fateh 2W | Draws 2 | Al-Ahli Jeddah 2W.
What form are Al-Fateh and Al-Ahli Jeddah in?
Al-Fateh (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-W-D-L-L. Al-Ahli Jeddah (all comps): 6W-4D-0L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.60 | L5 D-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Al-Fateh's attack at 1.03x the league average against Al-Ahli Jeddah's defence at 0.69x — combine the two and it projects 1.05 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Al-Ahli Jeddah's attack (0.87x) against Al-Fateh's defence (1.19x) — and the away total comes out at 1.53.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (10.0%), 1-2 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ahli Jeddah Win
24%
4.23
30%
3.29
46%
2.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.5%
Away win
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.05
Al-Fateh xG
Total xG
2.59
1.53
Al-Ahli Jeddah xG
4.23
24%
Home win
3.29
30%
Draw
2.18
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.87
47%
BTTS No
2.15
Clean Sheet
22%
4.63
35%
2.87
Win to Nil
5%
19.61
16%
6.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 11.5 | 8.9 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 12.2 | 9.3 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 6.4 | 4.9 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.2 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Fateh vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Al-Fateh and Al-Ahli Jeddah expected to score?
The model projects 1.05 expected goals for Al-Fateh and 1.53 for Al-Ahli Jeddah, a combined total of 2.59.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Fateh vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Al-Fateh come into this having played 43 games, going 12W 8D 23L for 1.02 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-L-L. The sample for Al-Fateh is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Al-Ahli Jeddah sit at 2.00 PPG from 43 outings (26W 8D 9L), a run that reads D-W-D-W-W across their last five. The sample for Al-Ahli Jeddah is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Ahli Jeddah carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.98 PPG clear of Al-Fateh — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Al-Fateh's home form reads 8W 3D 10L across 21 games on their own ground, a 1.29 PPG return.
Away from home, Al-Ahli Jeddah have taken 1.95 points per game from 21 outings (13W 2D 6L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Ahli Jeddah come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Al-Fateh are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.91 conceded per game recently; Al-Ahli Jeddah are on 1.88 scored and 0.98 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Fateh have seen both teams score in 70% of their recent games.
Defensively: Al-Ahli Jeddah in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 43 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Fateh
Blended
Al-Ahli Jeddah
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Fateh and Al-Ahli Jeddah in coming into this match?
Al-Fateh have gone 12W 8D 23L in their last 43 games (1.02 PPG), while Al-Ahli Jeddah have gone 26W 8D 9L in their last 43 (2.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Fateh at home or Al-Ahli Jeddah away?
Al-Ahli Jeddah's away record (1.95 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Fateh at home: 1.29 PPG; Al-Ahli Jeddah away: 1.95 PPG.
Have Al-Fateh or Al-Ahli Jeddah been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Fateh have kept a clean sheet in 12% of their recent games, Al-Ahli Jeddah in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 6 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al-Fateh won 5-1 on 2 Sep 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Fateh have gone 3W 0D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Al-Ahli Jeddah — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Al-Fateh
2
Draws
3
Al-Ahli Jeddah
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fateh and Al-Ahli Jeddah?
From 8 meetings on record, Al-Fateh have won 3, Al-Ahli Jeddah have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al-Fateh and Al-Ahli Jeddah last play each other?
They last met on 6 May 2026, when Al-Ahli Jeddah 3-1 Al-Fateh.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Al-Fateh are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Al-Ahli Jeddah are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Fateh 81%, Al-Ahli Jeddah 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Al-Fateh) and 33% (Al-Ahli Jeddah).
On the defensive side: Al-Ahli Jeddah in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Fateh home games / Al-Ahli Jeddah away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Fateh play Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 81% of Al-Fateh's games and 33% of Al-Ahli Jeddah's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Fateh vs Al-Ahli Jeddah usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of Al-Fateh's recent games and 33% of Al-Ahli Jeddah's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Fateh and Al-Ahli Jeddah tend to score early?
Al-Fateh have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Al-Ahli Jeddah in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Al-Fateh defy the odds to beat Al-Ahli Jeddah 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Fateh beat Al-Ahli Jeddah 2-1 at Al Fateh club stadium, Regular Season - 11, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Fateh 1.05 xG and Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.53 xG, a combined 2.59. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Al-Fateh beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Fateh attack 1.03 / defence 1.19 against Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 0.87 / defence 0.69, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Fateh 24% | Draw 30% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 46%, with Al-Ahli Jeddah to win its most likely call at 46%. Instead the game produced a Al-Fateh win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Fateh 63%, Al-Ahli Jeddah 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Fateh's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.
Al-Ahli Jeddah's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Ahli Jeddah arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.02. Form was overturned, with Al-Fateh winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Al-Ahli Jeddah (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.81 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.