Al-Faisaly FC 2-2 Al Taawon – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Faisaly FC at 48% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Faisaly FC vs Al Taawon encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Al Taawon make the trip to Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium to face Al-Faisaly FC in Pro League, Regular Season - 9. The match kicks off on Friday 22 October 2021 at 16:05 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Al-Faisaly FC have collected 1.25 PPG across 8 Pro League outings this season: 2W 4D 2L. Last five: L W D D D. They are averaging 1.12 goals per game and conceding 1.25 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 8 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 75% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Al-Faisaly FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium, Al-Faisaly FC have gone 2W 1D 1L this season (4 games, 1.75 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.75 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 100% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.75 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.25 — Al-Faisaly FC are significantly better at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Al Taawon's overall Pro League record this term: 0W 3D 5L from 8 games (0.38 PPG). Last five: D L D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.38 per game is modest, conceding 2.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.50 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 88% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Al Taawon, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Taawon away from home this season: 0W 2D 2L from 4 away games — 0.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.25 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The points-per-game gap of 0.87 in Al-Faisaly FC's favour (1.25 vs 0.38) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Al-Faisaly FC register both teams scoring in 100% of relevant games, Al Taawon in 75%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Al-Faisaly FC — key trading statistics (8 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games (home games).
Al Taawon — key trading statistics (8 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 38% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al-Faisaly FC 75% and Al Taawon 88% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Faisaly FC 50% | Al Taawon 75%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Faisaly FC 1.85 xG and Al Taawon 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Faisaly FC attack 1.103 / defence 1.275 | Al Taawon attack 0.855 / defence 1.462. League average goals — home 1.148 / away 1.165. Al Taawon bring a strong defensive rating of 1.462 — this is suppressing Al-Faisaly FC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 8 Al-Faisaly FC games / 8 Al Taawon games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Faisaly FC 48% | Draw 28% | Al Taawon 24%. Fair-value odds: Al-Faisaly FC 2.08 | Draw 3.57 | Al Taawon 4.17. Al-Faisaly FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.12. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.12 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.85 / 1.27) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Faisaly FC are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Faisaly FC if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.12 combined xG gives a 60% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 63%. Form rates corroborate: Al-Faisaly FC 100% | Al Taawon 75% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Faisaly FC vs Al Taawon | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 22 Oct 2021, 16:05 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Faisaly FC 48% | Draw 28% | Al Taawon 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 63% | xG Al-Faisaly FC 1.85 / Al Taawon 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Faisaly FC attack 1.103 / def 1.275 | Al Taawon attack 0.855 / def 1.462 | league avg home 1.148 / away 1.165 • Poisson stance: Al-Faisaly FC (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.85
Al-Faisaly FC xG
Expected Goals
1.27
Al Taawon xG
63%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Faisaly FC vs Al Taawon kick off?
Al-Faisaly FC vs Al Taawon kicked off at 16:05 on Friday 22 October 2021 at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Faisaly FC vs Al Taawon?
Al-Faisaly FC 2 - 2 Al Taawon.
Where is Al-Faisaly FC vs Al Taawon being played?
The match is being played at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium.
What competition is Al-Faisaly FC vs Al Taawon part of?
Al-Faisaly FC vs Al Taawon is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Faisaly FC vs Al Taawon?
Our statistical model gives Al-Faisaly FC a 48% chance of winning, Al Taawon a 24% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Al-Faisaly FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Faisaly FC vs Al Taawon?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Al-Faisaly FC and Al Taawon will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Faisaly FC vs Al Taawon have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Faisaly FC and Al Taawon?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Al-Faisaly FC and Al Taawon in?
Al-Faisaly FC (all comps): 2W-4D-2L in 8 | 1.25 PPG | GF 1.12 / GA 1.25 | L5 L-W-D-D-D. Al Taawon (all comps): 0W-3D-5L in 8 | 0.38 PPG | GF 1.38 / GA 2.50 | L5 D-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Al-Faisaly FC's attack rating (1.10) and Al Taawon's defence rating (1.46), the model arrives at 1.85 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Al Taawon's attack (0.85x) against Al-Faisaly FC's defence (1.27x) — and the away total comes out at 1.27.
These ratings are built from 8/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Faisaly FC Win
48%
2.07
28%
3.56
24%
4.25
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
1 – 0
8.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.85
Al-Faisaly FC xG
Total xG
3.12
1.27
Al Taawon xG
2.07
48%
Home win
3.56
28%
Draw
4.25
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.58
37%
BTTS No
2.73
Clean Sheet
28%
3.56
16%
6.37
Win to Nil
14%
7.37
4%
27.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 5.6 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 10.4 | 6.6 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 9.6 | 6.1 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 5.9 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.7 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Faisaly FC vs Al Taawon?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are Al-Faisaly FC and Al Taawon expected to score?
The model projects 1.85 expected goals for Al-Faisaly FC and 1.27 for Al Taawon, a combined total of 3.12.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Faisaly FC vs Al Taawon?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 8 outings, Al-Faisaly FC have picked up 1.25 PPG on a 2W 4D 2L record — L-W-D-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for Al-Faisaly FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al Taawon's form line: 0W 3D 5L from 8 games, 0.38 PPG, last five D-L-D-L-L. The sample for Al Taawon is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Al-Faisaly FC are the form team by 0.87 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Al Taawon.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Al-Faisaly FC have posted 1.75 PPG from 4 outings (2W 1D 1L). That's noticeably better than their 1.25 PPG overall — Al-Faisaly FC are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Al Taawon have gone 0W 2D 2L from 4 away games — 0.50 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Faisaly FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al-Faisaly FC are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Al Taawon are on 1.38 scored and 2.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Faisaly FC have seen both teams score in 75% of their recent games; Al Taawon in 88%.
Last 8 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Faisaly FC
Blended
Al Taawon
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Faisaly FC and Al Taawon in coming into this match?
Al-Faisaly FC have gone 2W 4D 2L in their last 8 games (1.25 PPG), while Al Taawon have gone 0W 3D 5L in their last 8 (0.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Faisaly FC at home or Al Taawon away?
Al-Faisaly FC's home record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Faisaly FC at home: 1.75 PPG; Al Taawon away: 0.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 10 March 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Al-Faisaly FC
2
Draws
0
Al Taawon
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Faisaly FC and Al Taawon?
From 2 meetings on record, Al-Faisaly FC have won 0, Al Taawon have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al-Faisaly FC and Al Taawon last play each other?
They last met on 10 March 2022, when Al Taawon 2-2 Al-Faisaly FC.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Al-Faisaly FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Al Taawon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 100% for Al-Faisaly FC, 75% for Al Taawon — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 100% for Al-Faisaly FC and 75% for Al Taawon. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Faisaly FC home games / Al Taawon away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Faisaly FC play Al Taawon?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Al-Faisaly FC's games and 75% of Al Taawon's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Faisaly FC vs Al Taawon usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of Al-Faisaly FC's matches and 75% of Al Taawon's.
Do Al-Faisaly FC and Al Taawon tend to score early?
Al-Faisaly FC have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Al Taawon in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Faisaly FC and Al Taawon share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Faisaly FC and Al Taawon finished level at 2-2 at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium, Regular Season - 9, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Faisaly FC 1.85 xG and Al Taawon 1.27 xG, a combined 3.12. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Faisaly FC attack 1.10 / defence 1.27 against Al Taawon attack 0.85 / defence 1.46, drawn from 8/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Faisaly FC 48% | Draw 28% | Al Taawon 24%, with Al-Faisaly FC to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 38% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Faisaly FC 50%, Al Taawon 75%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 81%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Faisaly FC's trading profile (8 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did.
Al Taawon's trading profile (8 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 88% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Faisaly FC arrived the stronger side — 1.25 PPG against 0.38. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.