Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Qadisiyah FC – Pre-Match Analysis

📋

Poisson rates Al-Qadisiyah FC at 66% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Qadisiyah FC encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis & Preview

A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 21 sees Al-Qadisiyah FC travel to to take on Al-Faisaly FC. The game is scheduled for Thursday 25 February 2027, 19:00 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Faisaly FC stand at 0W 3D 3L from 6 Pro League matches — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L D L D D. They are averaging 0.67 goals per game and conceding 1.67 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 6 outings provides some defensive foundation. Al-Faisaly FC have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

Al-Faisaly FC's form when playing at home: 0W 2D 1L across 3 games at this term (0.67 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.33 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.

Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Qadisiyah FC have recorded 9W 0D 1L from 10 outings — 2.70 PPG. Last five: L W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Al-Qadisiyah FC have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

Al-Qadisiyah FC's form when playing away from home: 8W 1D 1L across 10 road games this term (2.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Al-Qadisiyah FC are 2.20 PPG ahead (2.70 vs 0.50), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.

Head to Head

There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Al-Faisaly FC have won 0, Al-Qadisiyah FC 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.

The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 30 Aug 2026, ended 1–3 with Al-Qadisiyah FC winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading Patterns

Al-Faisaly FC in-play and half-time data (6 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games; they fail to score in 50% of games.

Al-Qadisiyah FC in-play and half-time data (6 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games; Over 3.5 in 50%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Faisaly FC 50% versus Al-Qadisiyah FC 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Faisaly FC 33% | Al-Qadisiyah FC 50%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Faisaly FC 0.60 xG and Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Faisaly FC attack 0.611 / defence 1.034 | Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 1.408 / defence 0.733. League average goals — home 1.339 / away 1.286. Al-Faisaly FC's attack strength of 0.611 is below the league average — the 0.60 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Al-Qadisiyah FC's defence strength of 0.733 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Al-Qadisiyah FC have an above-average attack strength of 1.408 — the away xG of 1.87 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 6 Al-Faisaly FC games / 40 Al-Qadisiyah FC games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Al-Faisaly FC 9% | Draw 25% | Al-Qadisiyah FC 66%. Fair-value odds: Al-Faisaly FC 11.11 | Draw 4.00 | Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.52. The model has a clear lean to Al-Qadisiyah FC (66%) — a 57pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.47. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.47 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Qadisiyah FC at 66% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

The Poisson model projects 2.47 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 40% on No. Form rates are neutral: Al-Faisaly FC 33% | Al-Qadisiyah FC 70%.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights