Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Fayha – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Fayha at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Fayha fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
plays host to Al-Faisaly FC versus Al-Fayha in Pro League, Regular Season - 29. Kick-off: Thursday 29 April 2027 at 18:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Al-Faisaly FC have collected 0.50 PPG across 6 Pro League outings this season: 0W 3D 3L. Last five: L D L D D. They are averaging 0.67 goals per game and conceding 1.67 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 6 outings provides some defensive foundation. Al-Faisaly FC have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al-Faisaly FC's form when playing at home: 0W 2D 1L across 3 games at this term (0.67 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.33 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Al-Fayha's overall Pro League record this term: 2W 2D 6L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: L D W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Al-Fayha have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al-Fayha's away record: 2W 2D 6L from 10 road trips in Pro League this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.50 PPG for Al-Faisaly FC against 0.80 for Al-Fayha. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Al-Faisaly FC lead 1W to 0W over the last 2 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 2 previous contests averaged 1.5 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 10 Feb 2022, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Al-Faisaly FC — key trading statistics (6 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games; they fail to score in 50% of games.
Al-Fayha — key trading statistics (6 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Faisaly FC 50% versus Al-Fayha 67%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Faisaly FC 33% | Al-Fayha 83%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Faisaly FC 0.87 xG and Al-Fayha 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Faisaly FC attack 0.611 / defence 1.034 | Al-Fayha attack 0.834 / defence 1.066. League average goals — home 1.339 / away 1.286. Al-Faisaly FC's attack strength of 0.611 is below the league average — the 0.87 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 6 Al-Faisaly FC games / 40 Al-Fayha games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Faisaly FC 25% | Draw 37% | Al-Fayha 38%. Fair-value odds: Al-Faisaly FC 4.00 | Draw 2.70 | Al-Fayha 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 37% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 1.98. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 1.98 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Fayha at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 37% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Fayha if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 1.98 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 32% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 42% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al-Faisaly FC 33% | Al-Fayha 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Fayha | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: • Kick-off: Thursday 29 Apr 2027, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Faisaly FC 25% | Draw 37% | Al-Fayha 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 42% | xG Al-Faisaly FC 0.87 / Al-Fayha 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Faisaly FC attack 0.611 / def 1.034 | Al-Fayha attack 0.834 / def 1.066 | league avg home 1.339 / away 1.286 • Poisson stance: Al-Fayha (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.87
Al-Faisaly FC xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Al-Fayha xG
42%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Fayha kick off?
Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Fayha is scheduled to kick off at 18:00 on Thursday 29 April 2027.
What competition is Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Fayha part of?
Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Fayha is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Fayha?
Our statistical model gives Al-Faisaly FC a 25% chance of winning, Al-Fayha a 38% chance, and a 37% chance of a draw — making Al-Fayha the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Fayha?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Al-Faisaly FC and Al-Fayha will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Fayha have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Faisaly FC and Al-Fayha?
Record (2 meetings): Al-Faisaly FC 1W | Draws 1 | Al-Fayha 0W.
What form are Al-Faisaly FC and Al-Fayha in?
Al-Faisaly FC (all comps): 0W-3D-3L in 6 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.67 / GA 1.67 | L5 L-D-L-D-D. Al-Fayha (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-D-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Al-Faisaly FC's attack rating (0.61) and Al-Fayha's defence rating (1.07), the model arrives at 0.87 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Al-Fayha's attack (0.83x) against Al-Faisaly FC's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 1.11.
These ratings are built from 6/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.5%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.1%), 0-1 (13.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Fayha Win
25%
3.94
37%
2.71
38%
2.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.3%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.8%
Draw
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.87
Al-Faisaly FC xG
Total xG
1.98
1.11
Al-Fayha xG
3.94
25%
Home win
2.71
37%
Draw
2.65
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.38
58%
BTTS No
1.73
Clean Sheet
33%
3.03
42%
2.39
Win to Nil
8%
11.96
16%
6.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.8 | 15.3 | 8.5 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.0 | 13.3 | 7.4 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 5.8 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Fayha?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.5%.
How many goals are Al-Faisaly FC and Al-Fayha expected to score?
The model projects 0.87 expected goals for Al-Faisaly FC and 1.11 for Al-Fayha, a combined total of 1.98.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Fayha?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 6 outings, Al-Faisaly FC have picked up 0.50 PPG on a 0W 3D 3L record — L-D-L-D-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Al-Faisaly FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al-Fayha's form line: 1W 2D 3L from 6 games, 0.83 PPG, last five L-D-W-D-L. It's still early in the season for Al-Fayha, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.50 PPG for Al-Faisaly FC against 0.83 for Al-Fayha. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Al-Faisaly FC have posted 0.67 PPG from 3 outings (0W 2D 1L).
On the road, Al-Fayha have gone 0W 1D 2L from 3 away games — 0.33 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 0.83 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Al-Fayha's season.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al-Faisaly FC are averaging 0.67 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; Al-Fayha are on 1.17 scored and 1.83 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Fayha in 67%.
Last 6 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Faisaly FC
Early Season
Al-Fayha
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Faisaly FC and Al-Fayha in coming into this match?
Al-Faisaly FC have gone 0W 3D 3L in their last 6 games (0.50 PPG), while Al-Fayha have gone 1W 2D 3L in their last 6 (0.83 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Faisaly FC at home or Al-Fayha away?
Al-Faisaly FC's home record (0.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Faisaly FC at home: 0.67 PPG; Al-Fayha away: 0.33 PPG.
Have Al-Faisaly FC or Al-Fayha been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Faisaly FC have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Al-Fayha in 17%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 10 February 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Al-Faisaly FC
1
Draws
0
Al-Fayha
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Faisaly FC and Al-Fayha?
From 2 meetings on record, Al-Faisaly FC have won 1, Al-Fayha have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al-Faisaly FC and Al-Fayha last play each other?
They last met on 10 February 2022, when Al-Fayha 0-0 Al-Faisaly FC.
Who has won more matches between Al-Faisaly FC and Al-Fayha?
Al-Faisaly FC have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Al-Faisaly FC see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches.
Al-Fayha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Faisaly FC 33%, Al-Fayha 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 0% for Al-Faisaly FC and 67% for Al-Fayha.
On the defensive side: Al-Faisaly FC keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Al-Fayha in 33%; Al-Faisaly FC have failed to score in 67% of games; Al-Fayha in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Faisaly FC home games / Al-Fayha away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Faisaly FC play Al-Fayha?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Al-Faisaly FC's recent matches and 67% of Al-Fayha's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Fayha usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Al-Faisaly FC's recent games and 67% of Al-Fayha's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Faisaly FC and Al-Fayha tend to score early?
Al-Faisaly FC have had a goal before half-time in 33% of their recent matches, Al-Fayha in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.