Al-Ettifaq 0-0 NEOM – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Ettifaq at 42% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Ettifaq vs NEOM encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Al-Ettifaq host NEOM at Abdullah Al Dabil Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 17. Kick-off is scheduled for Wednesday 21 January 2026 at 17:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Al-Ettifaq — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Pro League outings this season, averaging 1.80 points per game. Last five: D W W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ettifaq, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Ettifaq's home record at Abdullah Al Dabil Stadium: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Pro League appearances (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, NEOM stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L W L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for NEOM, so this record blends games from this season and last.
NEOM's away record: 4W 1D 2L from 7 road trips in Pro League this season (1.86 PPG). They are averaging 1.86 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 86% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.86 exceeds their overall 1.10 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
On current form, Al-Ettifaq have the edge — a 0.70 PPG advantage (1.80 vs 1.10) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Al-Ettifaq register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, NEOM in 86% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
In-Play Profile
Al-Ettifaq in-play tendencies (15 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
NEOM in-play tendencies (15 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 86% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al-Ettifaq 67% and NEOM 80% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Al-Ettifaq 67% | NEOM 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ettifaq 1.79 xG and NEOM 1.64 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ettifaq attack 0.967 / defence 1.085 | NEOM attack 1.015 / defence 1.198. League average goals — home 1.547 / away 1.488. Data: 49 Al-Ettifaq games / 15 NEOM games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Ettifaq 42% | Draw 23% | NEOM 36%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ettifaq 2.38 | Draw 4.35 | NEOM 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.43. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.43 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (1.79 / 1.64) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Ettifaq at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Ettifaq offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.43 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 67% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 67% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Al-Ettifaq 60% | NEOM 86% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Ettifaq vs NEOM | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Abdullah Al Dabil Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 21 Jan 2026, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Ettifaq 42% | Draw 23% | NEOM 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% | BTTS 67% | xG Al-Ettifaq 1.79 / NEOM 1.64 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Ettifaq attack 0.967 / def 1.085 | NEOM attack 1.015 / def 1.198 | league avg home 1.547 / away 1.488 • Poisson stance: Al-Ettifaq (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.79
Al-Ettifaq xG
Expected Goals
1.64
NEOM xG
67%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Ettifaq vs NEOM kick off?
Al-Ettifaq vs NEOM kicked off at 17:30 on Wednesday 21 January 2026 at Abdullah Al Dabil Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Ettifaq vs NEOM?
Al-Ettifaq 0 - 0 NEOM.
Where is Al-Ettifaq vs NEOM being played?
The match is being played at Abdullah Al Dabil Stadium.
What competition is Al-Ettifaq vs NEOM part of?
Al-Ettifaq vs NEOM is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Ettifaq vs NEOM?
Our statistical model gives Al-Ettifaq a 42% chance of winning, NEOM a 36% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Al-Ettifaq the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Ettifaq vs NEOM?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both Al-Ettifaq and NEOM will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Ettifaq vs NEOM have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ettifaq and NEOM?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Al-Ettifaq and NEOM in?
Al-Ettifaq (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-W-L-W. NEOM (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Al-Ettifaq's attacking strength (0.97x league average) is weighed against NEOM's defensive record (1.20x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.79. The same calculation in reverse, NEOM's attack versus Al-Ettifaq's defence, projects 1.64 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 49/15 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.5%), 1-2 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ettifaq Win
42%
2.39
23%
4.43
36%
2.81
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.5%
Home win
1 – 2
7.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.79
Al-Ettifaq xG
Total xG
3.43
1.64
NEOM xG
2.39
42%
Home win
4.43
23%
Draw
2.81
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
45%
Over 3.5
2.22
55%
Under 3.5
1.82
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.49
33%
BTTS No
3.05
Clean Sheet
19%
5.16
17%
6.00
Win to Nil
8%
12.31
6%
16.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.2 | 5.3 | 4.3 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 5.8 | 9.5 | 7.8 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 8.5 | 7.0 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 5.1 | 4.2 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 2.3 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Ettifaq vs NEOM?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.7%.
How many goals are Al-Ettifaq and NEOM expected to score?
The model projects 1.79 expected goals for Al-Ettifaq and 1.64 for NEOM, a combined total of 3.43.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Ettifaq vs NEOM?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Al-Ettifaq come into this having played 15 games, going 7W 4D 4L for 1.67 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-L-W. The sample for Al-Ettifaq is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, NEOM sit at 1.33 PPG from 15 outings (6W 2D 7L), a run that reads L-W-L-L-L across their last five. The sample for NEOM is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al-Ettifaq on 1.67 PPG, NEOM on 1.33. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Al-Ettifaq's home form reads 2W 3D 2L across 7 games on their own ground, a 1.29 PPG return.
Away from home, NEOM have taken 1.86 points per game from 7 outings (4W 1D 2L). That's actually stronger than their 1.33 PPG overall record — NEOM travel well.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, NEOM come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Al-Ettifaq are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; NEOM are on 1.40 scored and 1.67 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Ettifaq have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games; NEOM in 80%.
Last 15 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Ettifaq
Blended
NEOM
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Ettifaq and NEOM in coming into this match?
Al-Ettifaq have gone 7W 4D 4L in their last 15 games (1.67 PPG), while NEOM have gone 6W 2D 7L in their last 15 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Ettifaq at home or NEOM away?
NEOM's away record (1.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Ettifaq at home: 1.29 PPG; NEOM away: 1.86 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to January 2026. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 21 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Al-Ettifaq
2
Draws
0
NEOM
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ettifaq and NEOM?
From 2 meetings on record, Al-Ettifaq have won 0, NEOM have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al-Ettifaq and NEOM last play each other?
They last met on 21 May 2026, when NEOM 1-1 Al-Ettifaq.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al-Ettifaq are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
NEOM are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Al-Ettifaq at 57%, NEOM at 86%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 71% for Al-Ettifaq and 71% for NEOM. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 57% and 43% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Ettifaq have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Ettifaq home games / NEOM away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Ettifaq play NEOM?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Al-Ettifaq's games and 86% of NEOM's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Ettifaq vs NEOM usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of Al-Ettifaq's matches and 71% of NEOM's.
Do Al-Ettifaq and NEOM tend to score early?
Al-Ettifaq have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, NEOM in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Al-Ettifaq's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Ettifaq and NEOM finished level at 0-0 at Abdullah Al Dabil Stadium, Regular Season - 17, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ettifaq 1.79 xG and NEOM 1.64 xG, a combined 3.43. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Al-Ettifaq fell 1.8 short of their projected output. NEOM landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ettifaq attack 0.97 / defence 1.08 against NEOM attack 1.01 / defence 1.20, drawn from 49/15 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Ettifaq 42% | Draw 23% | NEOM 36%, with Al-Ettifaq to win its most likely call at 42%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 86% and missed. Over 3.5 was 45% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ettifaq 67%, NEOM 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 73%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Ettifaq's trading profile (15 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
NEOM's trading profile (15 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 80% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al-Ettifaq 1.67 PPG, NEOM 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Al-Ettifaq (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.43 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.86 average — tighter than their form line. NEOM (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.86 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.57 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.