Al-Ettifaq 2-0 Damac – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Ettifaq at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Ettifaq vs Damac fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Damac make the trip to Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium to face Al-Ettifaq in Pro League, Regular Season - 24. The match kicks off on Friday 28 April 2023 at 17:00 UTC.
Form
Al-Ettifaq (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Pro League fixtures this term — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W D L D W. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ettifaq, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Al-Ettifaq have posted 5W 2D 3L at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Al-Ettifaq are significantly better at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Damac have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: L W W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Damac, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Damac's away record: 2W 3D 5L from 10 road trips in Pro League this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.10 PPG for Al-Ettifaq against 1.10 for Damac. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Al-Ettifaq lead 0W to 2W over the last 3 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 3 previous contests averaged 0.7 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 15 Dec 2022, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Al-Ettifaq half-time and goal-timing data (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Damac half-time and goal-timing data (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Ettifaq 45% versus Damac 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Ettifaq 49% | Damac 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ettifaq 1.41 xG and Damac 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ettifaq attack 0.888 / defence 0.964 | Damac attack 0.990 / defence 1.113. League average goals — home 1.426 / away 1.278. Data: 53 Al-Ettifaq games / 53 Damac games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Ettifaq 41% | Draw 26% | Damac 32%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ettifaq 2.44 | Draw 3.85 | Damac 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.63. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.63 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Al-Ettifaq as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Ettifaq if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.63 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 49% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 0.7 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al-Ettifaq 40% | Damac 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Ettifaq vs Damac | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 28 Apr 2023, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Ettifaq 41% | Draw 26% | Damac 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 53% | xG Al-Ettifaq 1.41 / Damac 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Ettifaq attack 0.888 / def 0.964 | Damac attack 0.990 / def 1.113 | league avg home 1.426 / away 1.278 • Poisson stance: Al-Ettifaq (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.41
Al-Ettifaq xG
Expected Goals
1.22
Damac xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Ettifaq vs Damac kick off?
Al-Ettifaq vs Damac kicked off at 17:00 on Friday 28 April 2023 at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Ettifaq vs Damac?
Al-Ettifaq 2 - 0 Damac.
Where is Al-Ettifaq vs Damac being played?
The match is being played at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium.
What competition is Al-Ettifaq vs Damac part of?
Al-Ettifaq vs Damac is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Ettifaq vs Damac?
Our statistical model gives Al-Ettifaq a 41% chance of winning, Damac a 32% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Al-Ettifaq the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Ettifaq vs Damac?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Al-Ettifaq and Damac will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Ettifaq vs Damac have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ettifaq and Damac?
Record (3 meetings): Al-Ettifaq 0W | Draws 1 | Damac 2W.
What form are Al-Ettifaq and Damac in?
Al-Ettifaq (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-L-D-W. Damac (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Al-Ettifaq's attacking strength (0.89x league average) is weighed against Damac's defensive record (1.11x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.41. Flip it around — Damac's attack (0.99x) against Al-Ettifaq's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 1.22.
These ratings are built from 53/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (8.8%), 2-1 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ettifaq Win
41%
2.43
26%
3.78
32%
3.09
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
0 – 1
8.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.41
Al-Ettifaq xG
Total xG
2.63
1.22
Damac xG
2.43
41%
Home win
3.78
26%
Draw
3.09
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.87
47%
BTTS No
2.15
Clean Sheet
30%
3.39
24%
4.09
Win to Nil
12%
8.23
8%
12.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 8.8 | 5.4 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 12.4 | 7.6 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 8.7 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 4.1 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Ettifaq vs Damac?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Al-Ettifaq and Damac expected to score?
The model projects 1.41 expected goals for Al-Ettifaq and 1.22 for Damac, a combined total of 2.63.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Ettifaq vs Damac?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 53 outings, Al-Ettifaq have picked up 1.15 PPG on a 15W 16D 22L record — W-D-L-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Al-Ettifaq is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Damac's form line: 19W 16D 18L from 53 games, 1.38 PPG, last five L-W-W-L-D. The sample for Damac is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.15 PPG for Al-Ettifaq against 1.38 for Damac. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Al-Ettifaq have posted 1.31 PPG from 26 outings (9W 7D 10L).
On the road, Damac have gone 8W 6D 12L from 26 away games — 1.15 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al-Ettifaq are averaging 1.13 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Damac are on 1.25 scored and 1.40 conceded.
Last 53 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Ettifaq
Blended
Damac
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Ettifaq and Damac in coming into this match?
Al-Ettifaq have gone 15W 16D 22L in their last 53 games (1.15 PPG), while Damac have gone 19W 16D 18L in their last 53 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Ettifaq at home or Damac away?
Al-Ettifaq's home record (1.31 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Ettifaq at home: 1.31 PPG; Damac away: 1.15 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 6 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Al-Ettifaq have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al-Ettifaq won 0-3 on 15 Jan 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Ettifaq have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Damac — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Al-Ettifaq
2
Draws
2
Damac
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ettifaq and Damac?
From 10 meetings on record, Al-Ettifaq have won 6, Damac have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al-Ettifaq and Damac last play each other?
They last met on 6 February 2026, when Al-Ettifaq 2-0 Damac.
Who has won more matches between Al-Ettifaq and Damac?
Al-Ettifaq have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Al-Ettifaq are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Damac are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Ettifaq 54%, Damac 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Al-Ettifaq) and 62% (Damac). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 27% and 23% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Ettifaq have failed to score in 27% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Ettifaq home games / Damac away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Ettifaq play Damac?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Al-Ettifaq's games and 58% of Damac's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Ettifaq vs Damac usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 54% of Al-Ettifaq's matches and 62% of Damac's.
Do Al-Ettifaq and Damac tend to score early?
Al-Ettifaq have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Damac in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Ettifaq cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Damac.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Ettifaq beat Damac 2-0 at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium, Regular Season - 24, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ettifaq 1.41 xG and Damac 1.22 xG, a combined 2.63. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Damac landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ettifaq attack 0.89 / defence 0.96 against Damac attack 0.99 / defence 1.11, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Ettifaq 41% | Draw 26% | Damac 32%, with Al-Ettifaq to win its most likely call at 41%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ettifaq 49%, Damac 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Ettifaq's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not.
Damac's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al-Ettifaq 1.15 PPG, Damac 1.38 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al-Ettifaq win broke the near-deadlock. Al-Ettifaq (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.31 average — tighter than their form line. Damac (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.27 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.