Al-Ettifaq 1-3 Al Taawon – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Ettifaq at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Ettifaq vs Al Taawon fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Al-Ettifaq and Al Taawon meet at Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 11. This fixture gets under way on Thursday 4 November 2021 at 15:00 UTC.
Current Form
Al-Ettifaq's overall Pro League record this term: 2W 4D 4L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: L D L W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ettifaq, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium, Al-Ettifaq have gone 1W 2D 1L this season (4 games, 1.25 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Al Taawon (all games): 1W 4D 5L across 10 Pro League outings this term — 0.70 points per game. Last five: D L L D W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 2.20. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Al Taawon, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Taawon's away record: 0W 3D 2L from 5 road trips in Pro League this season (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.00 PPG for Al-Ettifaq against 0.70 for Al Taawon. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading Data
Al-Ettifaq goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (10 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%; they fail to score in 30% of games.
Al Taawon goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (10 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 30% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al-Ettifaq 60% and Al Taawon 80% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Al-Ettifaq 60% | Al Taawon 70%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ettifaq 1.32 xG and Al Taawon 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ettifaq attack 0.766 / defence 1.104 | Al Taawon attack 0.950 / defence 1.527. League average goals — home 1.129 / away 1.052. Al-Ettifaq's attack strength of 0.766 is below the league average — the 1.32 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Al Taawon bring a strong defensive rating of 1.527 — this is suppressing Al-Ettifaq's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 10 Al-Ettifaq games / 10 Al Taawon games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Ettifaq 41% | Draw 28% | Al Taawon 31%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ettifaq 2.44 | Draw 3.57 | Al Taawon 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.42. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.42 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Al-Ettifaq as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Ettifaq if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.42 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 44% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 2.9 goals per game points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. This conflicts with form data: Al-Ettifaq 50% | Al Taawon 80% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Ettifaq vs Al Taawon | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 4 Nov 2021, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Ettifaq 41% | Draw 28% | Al Taawon 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 49% | xG Al-Ettifaq 1.32 / Al Taawon 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Ettifaq attack 0.766 / def 1.104 | Al Taawon attack 0.950 / def 1.527 | league avg home 1.129 / away 1.052 • Poisson stance: Al-Ettifaq (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.32
Al-Ettifaq xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Al Taawon xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Ettifaq vs Al Taawon kick off?
Al-Ettifaq vs Al Taawon kicked off at 15:00 on Thursday 4 November 2021 at Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Ettifaq vs Al Taawon?
Al-Ettifaq 1 - 3 Al Taawon.
Where is Al-Ettifaq vs Al Taawon being played?
The match is being played at Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium.
What competition is Al-Ettifaq vs Al Taawon part of?
Al-Ettifaq vs Al Taawon is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Ettifaq vs Al Taawon?
Our statistical model gives Al-Ettifaq a 41% chance of winning, Al Taawon a 31% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Al-Ettifaq the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Ettifaq vs Al Taawon?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Al-Ettifaq and Al Taawon will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Ettifaq vs Al Taawon have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ettifaq and Al Taawon?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Al-Ettifaq and Al Taawon in?
Al-Ettifaq (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-D-L-W-L. Al Taawon (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.20 | L5 D-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Al-Ettifaq's attacking strength (0.77x league average) is weighed against Al Taawon's defensive record (1.53x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.32. Flip it around — Al Taawon's attack (0.95x) against Al-Ettifaq's defence (1.10x) — and the away total comes out at 1.10.
These ratings are built from 10/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.5%), 1-0 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ettifaq Win
41%
2.42
28%
3.59
31%
3.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.7%
Home win
0 – 1
9.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.32
Al-Ettifaq xG
Total xG
2.42
1.10
Al Taawon xG
2.42
41%
Home win
3.59
28%
Draw
3.24
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.03
51%
BTTS No
1.97
Clean Sheet
33%
3.01
27%
3.74
Win to Nil
14%
7.29
8%
12.13
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.9 | 9.8 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.7 | 12.9 | 7.1 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 8.5 | 4.7 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 3.7 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Ettifaq vs Al Taawon?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Al-Ettifaq and Al Taawon expected to score?
The model projects 1.32 expected goals for Al-Ettifaq and 1.10 for Al Taawon, a combined total of 2.42.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Ettifaq vs Al Taawon?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Al-Ettifaq come into this having played 10 games, going 2W 4D 4L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-W-L. The sample for Al-Ettifaq is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Al Taawon sit at 0.70 PPG from 10 outings (1W 4D 5L), a run that reads D-L-L-D-W across their last five. The sample for Al Taawon is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.00 PPG for Al-Ettifaq against 0.70 for Al Taawon. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Al-Ettifaq's home form reads 1W 2D 1L across 4 games on their own ground, a 1.25 PPG return.
Away from home, Al Taawon have taken 0.50 points per game from 4 outings (0W 2D 2L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Ettifaq come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al-Ettifaq are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game recently; Al Taawon are on 1.50 scored and 2.20 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Ettifaq have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; Al Taawon in 80%.
Last 10 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Ettifaq
Blended
Al Taawon
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Ettifaq and Al Taawon in coming into this match?
Al-Ettifaq have gone 2W 4D 4L in their last 10 games (1.00 PPG), while Al Taawon have gone 1W 4D 5L in their last 10 (0.70 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Ettifaq at home or Al Taawon away?
Al-Ettifaq's home record (1.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Ettifaq at home: 1.25 PPG; Al Taawon away: 0.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 3 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al-Ettifaq won 0-4 on 5 May 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Ettifaq have gone 2W 0D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Al Taawon — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Al-Ettifaq
2
Draws
5
Al Taawon
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ettifaq and Al Taawon?
From 10 meetings on record, Al-Ettifaq have won 3, Al Taawon have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al-Ettifaq and Al Taawon last play each other?
They last met on 3 February 2026, when Al-Ettifaq 1-0 Al Taawon.
Who has won more matches between Al-Ettifaq and Al Taawon?
Al Taawon have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Al-Ettifaq see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Al Taawon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Ettifaq 50%, Al Taawon 75% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 50% for Al-Ettifaq and 75% for Al Taawon. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Ettifaq have failed to score in 50% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Ettifaq home games / Al Taawon away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Ettifaq play Al Taawon?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Al-Ettifaq's games and 75% of Al Taawon's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Ettifaq vs Al Taawon usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Al-Ettifaq's matches and 75% of Al Taawon's.
Do Al-Ettifaq and Al Taawon tend to score early?
Al-Ettifaq have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Al Taawon in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al Taawon cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Al-Ettifaq.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Taawon beat Al-Ettifaq 1-3 at Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium, Regular Season - 11, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ettifaq 1.32 xG and Al Taawon 1.10 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Al Taawon outscored their 1.10 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ettifaq attack 0.77 / defence 1.10 against Al Taawon attack 0.95 / defence 1.53, drawn from 10/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Ettifaq 41% | Draw 28% | Al Taawon 31%, with Al-Ettifaq to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Al Taawon win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ettifaq 60%, Al Taawon 70%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 70%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Ettifaq's trading profile (10 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Al Taawon's trading profile (10 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 80% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al-Ettifaq 1.00 PPG, Al Taawon 0.70 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al Taawon win broke the near-deadlock. Al-Ettifaq (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al Taawon (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.25 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.