Al-Ettifaq 2-2 Al Shabab – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al Shabab at 51% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Ettifaq vs Al Shabab encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Al Shabab make the trip to Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium to face Al-Ettifaq in Pro League, Regular Season - 17. The match kicks off on Friday 14 January 2022 at 13:50 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Al-Ettifaq have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: W W L D D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ettifaq, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Ettifaq's home record at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium: 2W 3D 2L from 7 Pro League appearances (1.29 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 57% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Al Shabab's overall Pro League record this term: 8W 2D 0L from 10 games (2.60 PPG). Last five: D W W W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Al Shabab, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Al Shabab have gone 3W 2D 2L from 7 away fixtures this term (1.57 PPG). Away from home they average 1.57 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game. 3 clean sheets from 7 away games (43%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.57 is notably below their overall 2.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Al Shabab are the stronger side — 1.40 PPG clear of the hosts (2.60 vs 1.20). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Al-Ettifaq lead 0W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 6.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Aug 2021, ended 3–3 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 6.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Al-Ettifaq — key trading statistics (16 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
Al Shabab — key trading statistics (16 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; they lead at the break 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Ettifaq 56% versus Al Shabab 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Ettifaq 56% | Al Shabab 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ettifaq 0.93 xG and Al Shabab 1.53 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ettifaq attack 0.772 / defence 1.171 | Al Shabab attack 1.113 / defence 1.117. League average goals — home 1.083 / away 1.175. Al-Ettifaq's attack strength of 0.772 is below the league average — the 0.93 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 16 Al-Ettifaq games / 16 Al Shabab games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Ettifaq 22% | Draw 27% | Al Shabab 51%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ettifaq 4.55 | Draw 3.70 | Al Shabab 1.96. Al Shabab hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al Shabab are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al Shabab if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.46 combined xG gives a 45% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. Form rates are neutral: Al-Ettifaq 57% | Al Shabab 43%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Ettifaq vs Al Shabab | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 14 Jan 2022, 13:50 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Ettifaq 22% | Draw 27% | Al Shabab 51% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 48% | xG Al-Ettifaq 0.93 / Al Shabab 1.53 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Ettifaq attack 0.772 / def 1.171 | Al Shabab attack 1.113 / def 1.117 | league avg home 1.083 / away 1.175 • Poisson stance: Al Shabab (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.93
Al-Ettifaq xG
Expected Goals
1.53
Al Shabab xG
48%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Ettifaq vs Al Shabab kick off?
Al-Ettifaq vs Al Shabab kicked off at 13:50 on Friday 14 January 2022 at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Ettifaq vs Al Shabab?
Al-Ettifaq 2 - 2 Al Shabab.
Where is Al-Ettifaq vs Al Shabab being played?
The match is being played at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium.
What competition is Al-Ettifaq vs Al Shabab part of?
Al-Ettifaq vs Al Shabab is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Ettifaq vs Al Shabab?
Our statistical model gives Al-Ettifaq a 22% chance of winning, Al Shabab a 51% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Al Shabab the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Ettifaq vs Al Shabab?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Al-Ettifaq and Al Shabab will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Ettifaq vs Al Shabab have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ettifaq and Al Shabab?
Record (1 meetings): Al-Ettifaq 0W | Draws 1 | Al Shabab 0W.
What form are Al-Ettifaq and Al Shabab in?
Al-Ettifaq (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-L-D-D. Al Shabab (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 0.60 | L5 D-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Al-Ettifaq's attack rating (0.77) and Al Shabab's defence rating (1.12), the model arrives at 0.93 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Al Shabab's attack (1.11x) against Al-Ettifaq's defence (1.17x) — and the away total comes out at 1.53.
These ratings are built from 16/16 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.7%. Close behind: 0-1 (11.4%), 0-0 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Shabab Win
22%
4.48
27%
3.69
51%
1.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.0%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
0 – 2
10.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.93
Al-Ettifaq xG
Total xG
2.46
1.53
Al Shabab xG
4.48
22%
Home win
3.69
27%
Draw
1.98
51%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.07
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
22%
4.63
39%
2.54
Win to Nil
5%
20.73
20%
5.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 13.0 | 10.0 | 5.1 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 12.2 | 9.3 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 3.7 | 5.7 | 4.3 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Ettifaq vs Al Shabab?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Al-Ettifaq and Al Shabab expected to score?
The model projects 0.93 expected goals for Al-Ettifaq and 1.53 for Al Shabab, a combined total of 2.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Ettifaq vs Al Shabab?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 16 outings, Al-Ettifaq have picked up 1.12 PPG on a 4W 6D 6L record — W-W-L-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for Al-Ettifaq is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al Shabab's form line: 9W 5D 2L from 16 games, 2.00 PPG, last five D-W-W-W-D. The sample for Al Shabab is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Al Shabab are the form team by 0.88 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Al-Ettifaq.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Al-Ettifaq have posted 1.29 PPG from 7 outings (2W 3D 2L).
On the road, Al Shabab have gone 3W 2D 2L from 7 away games — 1.57 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 2.00 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Al Shabab's season.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al-Ettifaq are averaging 1.31 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game recently; Al Shabab are on 1.94 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Defensively: Al Shabab in 44% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 16 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Ettifaq
Blended
Al Shabab
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Ettifaq and Al Shabab in coming into this match?
Al-Ettifaq have gone 4W 6D 6L in their last 16 games (1.12 PPG), while Al Shabab have gone 9W 5D 2L in their last 16 (2.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Ettifaq at home or Al Shabab away?
Al Shabab's away record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Ettifaq at home: 1.29 PPG; Al Shabab away: 1.57 PPG.
Have Al-Ettifaq or Al Shabab been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Ettifaq have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Al Shabab in 44%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 7 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al Shabab won 3-0 on 30 Dec 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Ettifaq have gone 3W 2D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Al Shabab — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Al-Ettifaq
5
Draws
1
Al Shabab
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ettifaq and Al Shabab?
From 10 meetings on record, Al-Ettifaq have won 4, Al Shabab have won 1, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Al-Ettifaq and Al Shabab last play each other?
They last met on 7 March 2026, when Al-Ettifaq 1-1 Al Shabab.
Who has won more matches between Al-Ettifaq and Al Shabab?
Al-Ettifaq have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Al-Ettifaq see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Al Shabab are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Ettifaq 57%, Al Shabab 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Al-Ettifaq) and 43% (Al Shabab).
On the defensive side: Al Shabab in 43%; Al-Ettifaq have failed to score in 29% of games; Al Shabab in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Ettifaq home games / Al Shabab away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Ettifaq play Al Shabab?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Al-Ettifaq's recent matches and 43% of Al Shabab's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Ettifaq vs Al Shabab usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Al-Ettifaq's recent games and 43% of Al Shabab's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Ettifaq and Al Shabab tend to score early?
Al-Ettifaq have had a goal before half-time in 57% of their recent matches, Al Shabab in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Ettifaq and Al Shabab share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Ettifaq and Al Shabab finished level at 2-2 at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium, Regular Season - 17, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ettifaq 0.93 xG and Al Shabab 1.53 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Al-Ettifaq beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ettifaq attack 0.77 / defence 1.17 against Al Shabab attack 1.11 / defence 1.12, drawn from 16/16 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Ettifaq 22% | Draw 27% | Al Shabab 51%, with Al Shabab to win its most likely call at 51%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ettifaq 56%, Al Shabab 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Ettifaq's trading profile (16 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Al Shabab's trading profile (16 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Al Shabab arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.12. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Al-Ettifaq (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.14 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al Shabab (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.14 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.