Al-Ettifaq 1-0 Al Riyadh – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Al-Ettifaq at 37% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Ettifaq vs Al Riyadh encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Al-Ettifaq welcome Al Riyadh to EGO Stadium in Pro League (matchday 28). Kick-off is Thursday 17 April 2025 at 17:40 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Al-Ettifaq have gone 5W 3D 2L — a 1.80 PPG return. Last five: D W L D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, Al-Ettifaq have posted 2W 1D 7L from their last 10 home games — 0.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.70 lags behind their overall 1.80 — home advantage has not translated into better results recently.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Al Riyadh stand at 2W 3D 5L — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L W L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
When travelling, Al Riyadh have posted 2W 2D 6L from their last 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Al-Ettifaq carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.90 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.80 vs 0.90. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 60% of Al-Ettifaq's games and 70% of Al Riyadh's (from Al-Ettifaq's last 10 home games and Al Riyadh's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The H2H picture is flat: the 3 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for Al-Ettifaq, 1 for Al Riyadh and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data have been tight, averaging just 0.7 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 24 Nov 2024, ended Al-Ettifaq 0–0 Al Riyadh — a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.7 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Al-Ettifaq in-play tendencies (last 61 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 35%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
Al Riyadh in-play tendencies (last 61 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 54%; of the 27 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Ettifaq 51% versus Al Riyadh 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Ettifaq 43% | Al Riyadh 52%). Note also that Al Riyadh surrender HT leads in 54% of cases while Al-Ettifaq recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 35% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ettifaq 1.29 xG and Al Riyadh 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ettifaq attack 0.828 / defence 1.100 | Al Riyadh attack 0.868 / defence 1.084. League average goals — home 1.434 / away 1.335. Data: built from Al-Ettifaq's last 61 games and Al Riyadh's last 61.
Result probabilities: Al-Ettifaq 37% | Draw 27% | Al Riyadh 36%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ettifaq 2.73 | Draw 3.67 | Al Riyadh 2.77. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS Yes probability 52% | Total xG 2.56. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.56 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 52% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Ettifaq are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Ettifaq offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.56 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 53% probability — mixed conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 0.7 goals per game across 3 H2H matches — though recent form (Al-Ettifaq's last 10 home games and Al Riyadh's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Al-Ettifaq 60% (last 10 home games) | Al Riyadh 70% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Ettifaq vs Al Riyadh | Competition: Pro League, matchday 28 | Venue: EGO Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 17 April 2025 at 17:40 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Ettifaq 37% | Draw 27% | Al Riyadh 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% (Under 53%) | BTTS Yes 52% (No 48%) | xG Al-Ettifaq 1.29 / Al Riyadh 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Ettifaq attack 0.828 / def 1.100 | Al Riyadh attack 0.868 / def 1.084 | league avg home 1.434 / away 1.335 • Poisson stance: Al-Ettifaq (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.29
Al-Ettifaq xG
Expected Goals
1.27
Al Riyadh xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Al-Ettifaq vs Al Riyadh FAQs
What time does Al-Ettifaq vs Al Riyadh kick off?
Al-Ettifaq vs Al Riyadh kicked off at 17:40 UK time on Thursday 17 April 2025 at EGO Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Ettifaq vs Al Riyadh?
Al-Ettifaq 1 - 0 Al Riyadh.
Where is Al-Ettifaq vs Al Riyadh being played?
The match is being played at EGO Stadium.
What competition is Al-Ettifaq vs Al Riyadh part of?
Al-Ettifaq vs Al Riyadh is a Pro League fixture (matchday 28) (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Ettifaq vs Al Riyadh?
Our statistical model gives Al-Ettifaq a 37% chance of winning, Al Riyadh a 36% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Al-Ettifaq the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Ettifaq vs Al Riyadh?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Al-Ettifaq and Al Riyadh will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Al-Ettifaq vs Al Riyadh have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (53%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Al-Ettifaq's attack rating (0.83) and Al Riyadh's defence rating (1.08), the model arrives at 1.29 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Al Riyadh's attack versus Al-Ettifaq's defence, projects 1.27 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Al-Ettifaq's last 61 games and Al Riyadh's last 61 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.4%), 1-0 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ettifaq Win
37%
2.73
27%
3.67
36%
2.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
0 – 1
9.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.29
Al-Ettifaq xG
Total xG
2.56
1.27
Al Riyadh xG
2.73
37%
Home win
3.67
27%
Draw
2.77
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
28%
3.58
28%
3.62
Win to Nil
10%
9.77
10%
10.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 9.8 | 6.3 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 12.7 | 8.1 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 8.1 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.5 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Al-Ettifaq vs Al Riyadh Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Ettifaq vs Al Riyadh?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Al-Ettifaq and Al Riyadh expected to score?
The model projects 1.29 expected goals for Al-Ettifaq and 1.27 for Al Riyadh, a combined total of 2.56.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Ettifaq vs Al Riyadh?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Al-Ettifaq come into this having played 61 games, going 22W 19D 20L for 1.39 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-D-D.
On the other side, Al Riyadh sit at 1.13 PPG from 61 outings (17W 18D 26L), a run that reads L-W-L-D-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al-Ettifaq on 1.39 PPG, Al Riyadh on 1.13. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Al-Ettifaq's home form reads 9W 8D 13L across their last 30 home games, a 1.17 PPG return.
Away from home, Al Riyadh have taken 1.00 points per game from their last 30 away games (8W 6D 16L).
The Goals Picture
Al-Ettifaq are averaging 1.26 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; Al Riyadh are on 1.00 scored and 1.54 conceded.
Last 61 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Ettifaq
Blended
Al Riyadh
Blended
Al-Ettifaq (Home) vs Al Riyadh (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Al-Ettifaq
Blended
Al Riyadh
Blended
❓ Al-Ettifaq vs Al Riyadh Form FAQs
What form are Al-Ettifaq and Al Riyadh in coming into this match?
Al-Ettifaq have gone 22W 19D 20L in their last 61 games (1.39 PPG), while Al Riyadh have gone 17W 18D 26L in their last 61 (1.13 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Ettifaq at home or Al Riyadh away?
Al-Ettifaq's home record (1.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Ettifaq at home: 1.17 PPG; Al Riyadh away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 7 H2H matches in our data, going back to October 2023. All of them came in Pro League. The most recent was as recently as 14 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
Al-Ettifaq's record when hosting Al Riyadh specifically: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
4
Al-Ettifaq
1
Draws
2
Al Riyadh
Recent Meetings
❓ Al-Ettifaq vs Al Riyadh H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ettifaq and Al Riyadh?
Across the 7 head-to-head matches in our data, Al-Ettifaq have won 4, Al Riyadh have won 2, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Al-Ettifaq and Al Riyadh last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 14 August 2026: Al-Ettifaq 4-2 Al Riyadh.
Who has won more matches between Al-Ettifaq and Al Riyadh?
Al-Ettifaq have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 7 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al-Ettifaq are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Al Riyadh are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 31% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Ettifaq 53%, Al Riyadh 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Al-Ettifaq) and 63% (Al Riyadh). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 23% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Ettifaq have failed to score in 30% of games; Al Riyadh in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Ettifaq home games / Al Riyadh away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Al-Ettifaq vs Al Riyadh Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Al-Ettifaq and Al Riyadh matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of Al-Ettifaq's games and 63% of Al Riyadh's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Al-Ettifaq and Al Riyadh matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 47% of Al-Ettifaq's matches and 63% of Al Riyadh's.
Do Al-Ettifaq and Al Riyadh matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 70% of Al-Ettifaq's recent matches and 70% of Al Riyadh's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Al-Ettifaq edge out Al Riyadh 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Ettifaq beat Al Riyadh 1-0 at EGO Stadium, Regular Season - 28, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ettifaq 1.29 xG and Al Riyadh 1.27 xG, a combined 2.56. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Al Riyadh landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ettifaq attack 0.83 / defence 1.10 against Al Riyadh attack 0.87 / defence 1.08, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Ettifaq 37% | Draw 27% | Al Riyadh 36%, with Al-Ettifaq to win its most likely call at 37%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ettifaq 43%, Al Riyadh 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Ettifaq's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not.
Al Riyadh's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al-Ettifaq 1.39 PPG, Al Riyadh 1.13 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al-Ettifaq win broke the near-deadlock. Al-Ettifaq (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.43 average — tighter than their form line. Al Riyadh (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.10 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.93 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.