Al-Ettifaq 0-4 Al-Ittihad FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Al-Ittihad FC (55%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Al-Ettifaq face Al-Ittihad FC.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Al-Ittihad FC make the trip to EGO Stadium to face Al-Ettifaq in Pro League, Regular Season - 12. The match kicks off on Saturday 30 November 2024 at 14:25 UTC.
Form
Al-Ettifaq (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 Pro League fixtures this term — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L D L L D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ettifaq, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Al-Ettifaq have posted 3W 2D 5L at EGO Stadium — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Al-Ittihad FC's overall Pro League record this term: 9W 0D 1L from 10 games (2.70 PPG). Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ittihad FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Ittihad FC away from home this season: 5W 1D 4L from 10 away games — 1.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.60 is notably below their overall 2.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Al-Ittihad FC are the stronger side — 1.80 PPG clear of the hosts (2.70 vs 0.90). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 6 meetings: Al-Ettifaq 1W, Al-Ittihad FC 3W, 2D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.2 per game across 6 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 10 May 2024, ended 5–0 with Al-Ettifaq winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Al-Ettifaq half-time and goal-timing data (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Al-Ittihad FC half-time and goal-timing data (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Ettifaq 44% versus Al-Ittihad FC 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Ettifaq 36% | Al-Ittihad FC 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ettifaq 0.85 xG and Al-Ittihad FC 1.58 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ettifaq attack 0.716 / defence 1.204 | Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.087 / defence 0.856. League average goals — home 1.386 / away 1.209. Al-Ettifaq's attack strength of 0.716 is below the league average — the 0.85 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 45 Al-Ettifaq games / 45 Al-Ittihad FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Ettifaq 20% | Draw 25% | Al-Ittihad FC 55%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ettifaq 5.00 | Draw 4.00 | Al-Ittihad FC 1.82. The model has a clear lean to Al-Ittihad FC (55%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.43. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.43 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Ittihad FC are the pick at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.43 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.2 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 45% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al-Ettifaq 30% | Al-Ittihad FC 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Ittihad FC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: EGO Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Nov 2024, 14:25 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Ettifaq 20% | Draw 25% | Al-Ittihad FC 55% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 45% | xG Al-Ettifaq 0.85 / Al-Ittihad FC 1.58 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Ettifaq attack 0.716 / def 1.204 | Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.087 / def 0.856 | league avg home 1.386 / away 1.209 • Poisson stance: Al-Ittihad FC (55%) — strong lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
0.85
Al-Ettifaq xG
Expected Goals
1.58
Al-Ittihad FC xG
45%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Ittihad FC kick off?
Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Ittihad FC kicked off at 14:25 on Saturday 30 November 2024 at EGO Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Al-Ettifaq 0 - 4 Al-Ittihad FC.
Where is Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Ittihad FC being played?
The match is being played at EGO Stadium.
What competition is Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Ittihad FC part of?
Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Ittihad FC is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Our statistical model gives Al-Ettifaq a 20% chance of winning, Al-Ittihad FC a 55% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Al-Ittihad FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Al-Ettifaq and Al-Ittihad FC will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Ittihad FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ettifaq and Al-Ittihad FC?
Record (6 meetings): Al-Ettifaq 1W | Draws 2 | Al-Ittihad FC 3W.
What form are Al-Ettifaq and Al-Ittihad FC in?
Al-Ettifaq (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-L-L-D. Al-Ittihad FC (all comps): 9W-0D-1L in 10 | 2.70 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
What do the betting odds say about Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Al-Ettifaq's attack rating (0.72) and Al-Ittihad FC's defence rating (0.86), the model arrives at 0.85 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Al-Ittihad FC's attack (1.09x) against Al-Ettifaq's defence (1.20x) — and the away total comes out at 1.58.
These ratings are built from 45/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.3%. Close behind: 0-1 (12.4%), 0-2 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ittihad FC Win
20%
4.97
25%
3.97
55%
1.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.9%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
0 – 2
11.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.85
Al-Ettifaq xG
Total xG
2.43
1.58
Al-Ittihad FC xG
4.97
20%
Home win
3.97
25%
Draw
1.83
55%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.20
55%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
21%
4.87
43%
2.34
Win to Nil
4%
24.21
23%
4.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.8 | 13.9 | 11.0 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 7.5 | 11.8 | 9.3 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 3.2 | 5.0 | 4.0 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Al-Ettifaq and Al-Ittihad FC expected to score?
The model projects 0.85 expected goals for Al-Ettifaq and 1.58 for Al-Ittihad FC, a combined total of 2.43.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Al-Ettifaq's recent record stands at 15W 15D 15L from 45 games, a 1.33 PPG return, with L-D-L-L-D in the last five. The sample for Al-Ettifaq is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Ittihad FC, meanwhile, have gone 26W 6D 13L across 45 games — 1.87 PPG, with W-W-W-W-W in their last five. The sample for Al-Ittihad FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Al-Ittihad FC by 0.54 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Al-Ettifaq heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Al-Ettifaq have managed 7W 7D 8L from 22 games — 1.27 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al-Ittihad FC's away record stands at 11W 4D 7L across 22 trips, a 1.68 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Ittihad FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Al-Ettifaq are averaging 1.16 goals scored and 1.09 conceded per game recently; Al-Ittihad FC are on 1.98 scored and 1.38 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Ittihad FC in 60%.
Last 45 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Ettifaq
Blended
Al-Ittihad FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Ettifaq and Al-Ittihad FC in coming into this match?
Al-Ettifaq have gone 15W 15D 15L in their last 45 games (1.33 PPG), while Al-Ittihad FC have gone 26W 6D 13L in their last 45 (1.87 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Ettifaq at home or Al-Ittihad FC away?
Al-Ittihad FC's away record (1.68 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Ettifaq at home: 1.27 PPG; Al-Ittihad FC away: 1.68 PPG.
Have Al-Ettifaq or Al-Ittihad FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Ettifaq have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Al-Ittihad FC in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 14 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al-Ettifaq won 0-5 on 10 May 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Ettifaq have gone 0W 1D 4L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Al-Ittihad FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Al-Ettifaq
2
Draws
6
Al-Ittihad FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ettifaq and Al-Ittihad FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Al-Ettifaq have won 2, Al-Ittihad FC have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al-Ettifaq and Al-Ittihad FC last play each other?
They last met on 14 May 2026, when Al-Ettifaq 1-3 Al-Ittihad FC.
Who has won more matches between Al-Ettifaq and Al-Ittihad FC?
Al-Ittihad FC have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Al-Ettifaq are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Al-Ittihad FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Ettifaq 50%, Al-Ittihad FC 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Al-Ettifaq) and 54% (Al-Ittihad FC).
On the defensive side: Al-Ittihad FC in 41%; Al-Ettifaq have failed to score in 32% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Ettifaq home games / Al-Ittihad FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Ettifaq play Al-Ittihad FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Al-Ettifaq's recent matches and 50% of Al-Ittihad FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Ittihad FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Al-Ettifaq's recent games and 54% of Al-Ittihad FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Ettifaq and Al-Ittihad FC tend to score early?
Al-Ettifaq have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Al-Ittihad FC in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Al-Ittihad FC run riot with a 0-4 hammering of Al-Ettifaq.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Ittihad FC beat Al-Ettifaq 0-4 at EGO Stadium, Regular Season - 12, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ettifaq 0.85 xG and Al-Ittihad FC 1.58 xG, a combined 2.43. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. Al-Ettifaq fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Al-Ittihad FC outscored their 1.58 projection by 2.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ettifaq attack 0.72 / defence 1.20 against Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.09 / defence 0.86, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Ettifaq 20% | Draw 25% | Al-Ittihad FC 55%, with Al-Ittihad FC to win its most likely call at 55%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ettifaq 36%, Al-Ittihad FC 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Ettifaq's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Al-Ittihad FC's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Ittihad FC arrived the stronger side — 1.87 PPG against 1.33. Form held, and they took the win. Al-Ettifaq (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.14 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.27 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al-Ittihad FC (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.64 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.18 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.