Al-Ettifaq 1-0 Al-Fayha – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Fayha at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Fayha fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium plays host to Al-Ettifaq versus Al-Fayha in Pro League, Regular Season - 22. Kick-off: Friday 14 April 2023 at 20:00 UTC.
Form
Al-Ettifaq (all games): 2W 2D 6L across 10 Pro League fixtures this term — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L W D L D. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ettifaq, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Ettifaq at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Al-Ettifaq are significantly better at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Al-Fayha have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: W L D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Al-Fayha, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Fayha away from home this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Al-Fayha are 0.50 PPG clear of Al-Ettifaq in recent Pro League fixtures (1.30 vs 0.80). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Al-Ettifaq lead 2W to 0W over the last 3 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 11 Oct 2022, ended 3–0 with Al-Ettifaq winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Al-Ettifaq half-time and goal-timing data (52 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Al-Fayha half-time and goal-timing data (52 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Ettifaq 46% versus Al-Fayha 42%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Al-Ettifaq 50% | Al-Fayha 29%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ettifaq 1.44 xG and Al-Fayha 1.51 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ettifaq attack 0.914 / defence 1.070 | Al-Fayha attack 1.043 / defence 1.109. League average goals — home 1.423 / away 1.358. Data: 52 Al-Ettifaq games / 52 Al-Fayha games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Ettifaq 34% | Draw 28% | Al-Fayha 38%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ettifaq 2.94 | Draw 3.57 | Al-Fayha 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 2.96. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.96 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.44 / 1.51) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Al-Ettifaq dominate the H2H record, yet Al-Fayha are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
Poisson rates Al-Fayha as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Fayha if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.96 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 57% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al-Ettifaq 50% | Al-Fayha 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Fayha | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 14 Apr 2023, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Ettifaq 34% | Draw 28% | Al-Fayha 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 61% | xG Al-Ettifaq 1.44 / Al-Fayha 1.51 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Ettifaq attack 0.914 / def 1.070 | Al-Fayha attack 1.043 / def 1.109 | league avg home 1.423 / away 1.358 • Poisson stance: Al-Fayha (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.44
Al-Ettifaq xG
Expected Goals
1.51
Al-Fayha xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Fayha kick off?
Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Fayha kicked off at 20:00 on Friday 14 April 2023 at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Fayha?
Al-Ettifaq 1 - 0 Al-Fayha.
Where is Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Fayha being played?
The match is being played at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium.
What competition is Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Fayha part of?
Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Fayha is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Fayha?
Our statistical model gives Al-Ettifaq a 34% chance of winning, Al-Fayha a 38% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Al-Fayha the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Fayha?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Al-Ettifaq and Al-Fayha will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Fayha have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ettifaq and Al-Fayha?
Record (3 meetings): Al-Ettifaq 2W | Draws 1 | Al-Fayha 0W.
What form are Al-Ettifaq and Al-Fayha in?
Al-Ettifaq (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-D-L-D. Al-Fayha (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Al-Ettifaq's attack rating (0.91) and Al-Fayha's defence rating (1.11), the model arrives at 1.44 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Al-Fayha's attack (1.04x) against Al-Ettifaq's defence (1.07x) — and the away total comes out at 1.51.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.8%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.6%), 2-1 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Fayha Win
34%
2.91
28%
3.57
38%
2.66
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.6%
Away win
2 – 1
8.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.44
Al-Ettifaq xG
Total xG
2.96
1.51
Al-Fayha xG
2.91
34%
Home win
3.57
28%
Draw
2.66
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.63
39%
BTTS No
2.59
Clean Sheet
22%
4.54
24%
4.23
Win to Nil
8%
13.22
9%
11.25
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 7.9 | 6.0 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.5 | 11.4 | 8.6 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 8.2 | 6.2 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.9 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Fayha?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Al-Ettifaq and Al-Fayha expected to score?
The model projects 1.44 expected goals for Al-Ettifaq and 1.51 for Al-Fayha, a combined total of 2.96.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Fayha?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 52 outings, Al-Ettifaq have picked up 1.12 PPG on a 14W 16D 22L record — L-W-D-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Al-Ettifaq is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Fayha's form line: 14W 18D 20L from 52 games, 1.15 PPG, last five W-L-D-L-D. The sample for Al-Fayha is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.12 PPG for Al-Ettifaq against 1.15 for Al-Fayha. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Al-Ettifaq have posted 1.24 PPG from 25 outings (8W 7D 10L).
On the road, Al-Fayha have gone 4W 8D 13L from 25 away games — 0.80 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Ettifaq come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al-Ettifaq are averaging 1.13 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; Al-Fayha are on 0.88 scored and 1.10 conceded.
Last 52 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Ettifaq
Blended
Al-Fayha
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Ettifaq and Al-Fayha in coming into this match?
Al-Ettifaq have gone 14W 16D 22L in their last 52 games (1.12 PPG), while Al-Fayha have gone 14W 18D 20L in their last 52 (1.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Ettifaq at home or Al-Fayha away?
Al-Ettifaq's home record (1.24 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Ettifaq at home: 1.24 PPG; Al-Fayha away: 0.80 PPG.
Have Al-Ettifaq or Al-Fayha been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Ettifaq have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Al-Fayha in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 13 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al-Ettifaq won 0-3 on 11 Oct 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Ettifaq have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Al-Fayha — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Al-Ettifaq
3
Draws
3
Al-Fayha
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ettifaq and Al-Fayha?
From 10 meetings on record, Al-Ettifaq have won 4, Al-Fayha have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Al-Ettifaq and Al-Fayha last play each other?
They last met on 13 March 2026, when Al-Fayha 1-0 Al-Ettifaq.
Who has won more matches between Al-Ettifaq and Al-Fayha?
Al-Ettifaq have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Al-Ettifaq are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Al-Fayha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Ettifaq 56%, Al-Fayha 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Al-Ettifaq) and 40% (Al-Fayha).
On the defensive side: Al-Ettifaq have failed to score in 28% of games; Al-Fayha in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Ettifaq home games / Al-Fayha away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Ettifaq play Al-Fayha?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Al-Ettifaq's games and 56% of Al-Fayha's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Fayha usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Al-Ettifaq's recent games and 40% of Al-Fayha's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Ettifaq and Al-Fayha tend to score early?
Al-Ettifaq have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Al-Fayha in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Al-Ettifaq defy the odds to beat Al-Fayha 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Ettifaq beat Al-Fayha 1-0 at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium, Regular Season - 22, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ettifaq 1.44 xG and Al-Fayha 1.51 xG, a combined 2.96. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Al-Fayha landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ettifaq attack 0.91 / defence 1.07 against Al-Fayha attack 1.04 / defence 1.11, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Ettifaq 34% | Draw 28% | Al-Fayha 38%, with Al-Fayha to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Al-Ettifaq win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 81% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ettifaq 50%, Al-Fayha 29%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Ettifaq's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not.
Al-Fayha's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al-Ettifaq 1.12 PPG, Al-Fayha 1.15 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al-Ettifaq win broke the near-deadlock. Al-Ettifaq (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.36 average — tighter than their form line. Al-Fayha (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.92 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.