Al-Ettifaq 3-2 Al-Adalah – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Ettifaq at 62% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Al-Ettifaq face Al-Adalah.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Al-Adalah make the trip to Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium to face Al-Ettifaq in Pro League (matchday 15). The match kicks off on Friday 3 February 2023 at 16:30 UK time.
Form
Al-Ettifaq (all games): 3W 3D 4L across their last 10 — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L W L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
In front of their own supporters, Al-Ettifaq have posted 4W 1D 5L from their last 10 home games — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Al-Adalah's record over their last 10 games: 2W 2D 6L (0.80 PPG). Last five: L D W L D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Al-Adalah's away record over their last 7 away games: 0W 2D 5L (0.29 PPG). Away from home they average 0.43 goals scored and 1.86 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.29 is notably below their overall 0.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.20 vs 0.80 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading
Al-Ettifaq half-time and goal-timing data (last 14 games, 7 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 57% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 40% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time; they fail to score in 50% of games.
Al-Adalah half-time and goal-timing data (last 14 games, 7 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 57% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they fail to score in 57% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Ettifaq 29% versus Al-Adalah 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Ettifaq 43% | Al-Adalah 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ettifaq 1.65 xG and Al-Adalah 0.65 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ettifaq attack 0.935 / defence 0.919 | Al-Adalah attack 0.634 / defence 1.261. League average goals — home 1.397 / away 1.113. Al-Adalah's defence rating of 1.261 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Al-Ettifaq's projected output up. Al-Adalah's attack rating of 0.634 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.65. Data: built from Al-Ettifaq's last 44 games and Al-Adalah's last 14.
Result probabilities: Al-Ettifaq 62% | Draw 24% | Al-Adalah 14%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ettifaq 1.62 | Draw 4.16 | Al-Adalah 6.96. The model has a clear lean to Al-Ettifaq (62%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS Yes probability 39% | Total xG 2.30. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.30 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 61% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Ettifaq at 62% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.30 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 60% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Al-Ettifaq 50% (last 10 home games) | Al-Adalah 43% (last 7 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Adalah | Competition: Pro League, matchday 15 | Venue: Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 3 February 2023 at 16:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Ettifaq 62% | Draw 24% | Al-Adalah 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% (Under 60%) | BTTS Yes 39% (No 61%) | xG Al-Ettifaq 1.65 / Al-Adalah 0.65 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Ettifaq attack 0.935 / def 0.919 | Al-Adalah attack 0.634 / def 1.261 | league avg home 1.397 / away 1.113 • Poisson stance: Al-Ettifaq (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.65
Al-Ettifaq xG
Expected Goals
0.65
Al-Adalah xG
39%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Adalah FAQs
What time does Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Adalah kick off?
Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Adalah kicked off at 16:30 UK time on Friday 3 February 2023 at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Adalah?
Al-Ettifaq 3 - 2 Al-Adalah.
Where is Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Adalah being played?
The match is being played at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium.
What competition is Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Adalah part of?
Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Adalah is a Pro League fixture (matchday 15) (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Adalah?
Our statistical model gives Al-Ettifaq a 62% chance of winning, Al-Adalah a 14% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Al-Ettifaq the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Adalah?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Al-Ettifaq and Al-Adalah will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (61%).
Will Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Adalah have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (60%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Al-Ettifaq's attacking strength (0.94x league average) is weighed against Al-Adalah's defensive record (1.26x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.65. Flip it around — Al-Adalah's attack (0.63x) against Al-Ettifaq's defence (0.92x) — and the away total comes out at 0.65.
These ratings are built from Al-Ettifaq's last 44 games and Al-Adalah's last 14 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 15.2%. Close behind: 2-0 (13.7%), 1-1 (12.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ettifaq Win
62%
1.62
24%
4.16
14%
6.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.6%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
13.7%
Home win
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.65
Al-Ettifaq xG
Total xG
2.30
0.65
Al-Adalah xG
1.62
62%
Home win
4.16
24%
Draw
6.96
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.60
61%
BTTS No
1.63
Clean Sheet
52%
1.91
19%
5.20
Win to Nil
32%
3.10
3%
36.19
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.1 | 6.5 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 16.6 | 10.7 | 3.5 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.7 | 8.9 | 2.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 7.5 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.1 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Adalah Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Adalah?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Al-Ettifaq and Al-Adalah expected to score?
The model projects 1.65 expected goals for Al-Ettifaq and 0.65 for Al-Adalah, a combined total of 2.30.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Adalah?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 14 outings, Al-Ettifaq have picked up 1.14 PPG on a 4W 4D 6L record — W-L-W-L-L across the most recent five.
Al-Adalah's form line: 2W 3D 9L from 14 games, 0.64 PPG, last five L-D-W-L-D.
Put side by side, Al-Ettifaq are the form team by 0.50 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Al-Adalah.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Al-Ettifaq have posted 1.43 PPG from their last 7 home games (3W 1D 3L).
On the road, Al-Adalah have gone 0W 2D 5L from their last 7 away games — 0.29 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Ettifaq come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Al-Ettifaq are averaging 0.86 goals scored and 0.93 conceded per game recently; Al-Adalah are on 0.57 scored and 1.71 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Ettifaq have seen both teams score in 29% of their recent games.
Defensively: Al-Ettifaq have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 14 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Ettifaq
Blended
Al-Adalah
Blended
Al-Ettifaq (Home) vs Al-Adalah (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Al-Ettifaq
Blended
Al-Adalah
Blended
❓ Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Adalah Form FAQs
What form are Al-Ettifaq and Al-Adalah in coming into this match?
Al-Ettifaq have gone 4W 4D 6L in their last 14 games (1.14 PPG), while Al-Adalah have gone 2W 3D 9L in their last 14 (0.64 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Ettifaq at home or Al-Adalah away?
Al-Ettifaq's home record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Ettifaq at home: 1.43 PPG; Al-Adalah away: 0.29 PPG.
Have Al-Ettifaq or Al-Adalah been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Ettifaq have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, Al-Adalah in 14%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 2 H2H matches between Al-Ettifaq and Al-Adalah, the earliest from February 2023. All of them came in Pro League. The most recent in our data was on 31 May 2023, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Al-Ettifaq
0
Draws
0
Al-Adalah
Recent Meetings
❓ Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Adalah H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ettifaq and Al-Adalah?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Al-Ettifaq have won 2, Al-Adalah have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al-Ettifaq and Al-Adalah last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 31 May 2023: Al-Adalah 0-2 Al-Ettifaq.
Who has won more matches between Al-Ettifaq and Al-Adalah?
Al-Ettifaq have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 2 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Al-Ettifaq see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Al-Adalah see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Ettifaq 43%, Al-Adalah 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Al-Ettifaq) and 43% (Al-Adalah).
On the defensive side: Al-Ettifaq keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Al-Ettifaq have failed to score in 29% of games; Al-Adalah in 57%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Ettifaq home games / Al-Adalah away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Adalah Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Al-Ettifaq and Al-Adalah matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Al-Ettifaq's recent matches and 43% of Al-Adalah's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Al-Ettifaq and Al-Adalah matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Al-Ettifaq's recent games and 43% of Al-Adalah's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Prediction vindicated as Al-Ettifaq edge out Al-Adalah 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Ettifaq beat Al-Adalah 3-2 at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium, Regular Season - 15, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ettifaq 1.65 xG and Al-Adalah 0.65 xG, a combined 2.30. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Al-Ettifaq beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Al-Adalah outscored their 0.65 projection by 1.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ettifaq attack 0.94 / defence 0.92 against Al-Adalah attack 0.63 / defence 1.26, drawn from 44/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Ettifaq 62% | Draw 24% | Al-Adalah 14%, with Al-Ettifaq to win its most likely call at 62%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ettifaq 43%, Al-Adalah 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 36%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Ettifaq's trading profile (14 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 29% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Al-Adalah's trading profile (14 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Ettifaq arrived the stronger side — 1.14 PPG against 0.64. Form held, and they took the win. Al-Ettifaq (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.14 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.86 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al-Adalah (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.43 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.86 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.