Al-Ahli Jeddah 2-0 Al-Hazm – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Al-Ahli Jeddah (66%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Al-Ahli Jeddah face Al-Hazm.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Hazm meet at King Abdullah Sports City in Pro League, Regular Season - 21. This fixture gets under way on Thursday 5 February 2026 at 17:30 UTC.
Current Form
Al-Ahli Jeddah's overall Pro League record this term: 8W 1D 1L from 10 games (2.50 PPG). Last five: W W W W D. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ahli Jeddah, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Ahli Jeddah's home record at King Abdullah Sports City: 7W 3D 0L from 10 Pro League appearances (2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Al-Hazm (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Pro League outings this term — 1.20 points per game. Last five: L D W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al-Hazm, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Hazm away from home this season: 3W 5D 2L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The points-per-game gap of 1.30 in Al-Ahli Jeddah's favour (2.50 vs 1.20) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Al-Ahli Jeddah register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Al-Hazm in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Head-to-Head
Across 5 previous meetings, Al-Ahli Jeddah are the stronger side on paper — 4 victories to 0, with 1 draws in between.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 5 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Sep 2025, ended 2–0 with Al-Ahli Jeddah winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Al-Ahli Jeddah and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 5 meetings, combined with an average of 3.0 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading
Al-Ahli Jeddah half-time and goal-timing data (19 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 58% of the time.
Al-Hazm half-time and goal-timing data (19 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Ahli Jeddah 42% versus Al-Hazm 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Ahli Jeddah 42% | Al-Hazm 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ahli Jeddah 2.17 xG and Al-Hazm 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.450 / defence 0.763 | Al-Hazm attack 0.870 / defence 1.014. League average goals — home 1.473 / away 1.351. Al-Ahli Jeddah carry an above-average attack strength of 1.450 — their λ of 2.17 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Al-Ahli Jeddah's defence rating of 0.763 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 53 Al-Ahli Jeddah games / 19 Al-Hazm games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Ahli Jeddah 66% | Draw 20% | Al-Hazm 14%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.52 | Draw 5.00 | Al-Hazm 7.14. The model has a clear lean to Al-Ahli Jeddah (66%) — a 52pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 3.06. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.06 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Ahli Jeddah at 66% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.06 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 59% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al-Ahli Jeddah 70% | Al-Hazm 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Hazm | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: King Abdullah Sports City • Kick-off: Thursday 5 Feb 2026, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Ahli Jeddah 66% | Draw 20% | Al-Hazm 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 53% | xG Al-Ahli Jeddah 2.17 / Al-Hazm 0.90 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.450 / def 0.763 | Al-Hazm attack 0.870 / def 1.014 | league avg home 1.473 / away 1.351 • Poisson stance: Al-Ahli Jeddah (66%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.17
Al-Ahli Jeddah xG
Expected Goals
0.90
Al-Hazm xG
53%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Hazm kick off?
Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Hazm kicked off at 17:30 on Thursday 5 February 2026 at King Abdullah Sports City.
What was the final score in Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Hazm?
Al-Ahli Jeddah 2 - 0 Al-Hazm.
Where is Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Hazm being played?
The match is being played at King Abdullah Sports City.
What competition is Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Hazm part of?
Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Hazm is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Hazm?
Our statistical model gives Al-Ahli Jeddah a 66% chance of winning, Al-Hazm a 14% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Al-Ahli Jeddah the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Hazm?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Hazm will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Hazm have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Hazm?
Record (5 meetings): Al-Ahli Jeddah 4W | Draws 1 | Al-Hazm 0W.
What form are Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Hazm in?
Al-Ahli Jeddah (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-W-W-W-D. Al-Hazm (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-D-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Al-Ahli Jeddah's attack at 1.45x the league average against Al-Hazm's defence at 1.01x — combine the two and it projects 2.17 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Al-Hazm's attack (0.87x) against Al-Ahli Jeddah's defence (0.76x) — and the away total comes out at 0.90.
These ratings are built from 53/19 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 11.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (10.3%), 2-1 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ahli Jeddah Win
66%
1.52
20%
4.94
14%
7.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
11.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.17
Al-Ahli Jeddah xG
Total xG
3.06
0.90
Al-Hazm xG
1.52
66%
Home win
4.94
20%
Draw
7.21
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
41%
2.45
11%
8.73
Win to Nil
27%
3.72
2%
62.96
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 4.2 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 10.1 | 9.1 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.0 | 9.8 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.9 | 7.1 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 4.3 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Hazm?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.0%.
How many goals are Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Hazm expected to score?
The model projects 2.17 expected goals for Al-Ahli Jeddah and 0.90 for Al-Hazm, a combined total of 3.06.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Hazm?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 66%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 19 outings, Al-Ahli Jeddah have picked up 2.32 PPG on a 13W 5D 1L record — W-W-W-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Al-Ahli Jeddah is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Hazm's form line: 5W 6D 8L from 19 games, 1.11 PPG, last five L-D-W-L-D. The sample for Al-Hazm is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Al-Ahli Jeddah are the form team by 1.21 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Al-Hazm.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Al-Ahli Jeddah have posted 2.40 PPG from 10 outings (7W 3D 0L).
On the road, Al-Hazm have gone 3W 5D 2L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Ahli Jeddah come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al-Ahli Jeddah are averaging 1.74 goals scored and 0.63 conceded per game recently; Al-Hazm are on 1.05 scored and 1.84 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Hazm in 63%.
Defensively: Al-Ahli Jeddah have kept a clean sheet in 58% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 19 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Ahli Jeddah
Blended
Al-Hazm
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Hazm in coming into this match?
Al-Ahli Jeddah have gone 13W 5D 1L in their last 19 games (2.32 PPG), while Al-Hazm have gone 5W 6D 8L in their last 19 (1.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Ahli Jeddah at home or Al-Hazm away?
Al-Ahli Jeddah's home record (2.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Ahli Jeddah at home: 2.40 PPG; Al-Hazm away: 1.40 PPG.
Have Al-Ahli Jeddah or Al-Hazm been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Ahli Jeddah have kept a clean sheet in 58% of their recent games, Al-Hazm in 11%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 5 February 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Al-Ahli Jeddah have won the last 5 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al-Ahli Jeddah won 0-4 on 22 Dec 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Ahli Jeddah have gone 3W 0D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Al-Hazm — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
5
Al-Ahli Jeddah
1
Draws
0
Al-Hazm
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Hazm?
From 6 meetings on record, Al-Ahli Jeddah have won 5, Al-Hazm have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Hazm last play each other?
They last met on 5 February 2026, when Al-Ahli Jeddah 2-0 Al-Hazm.
Who has won more matches between Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Hazm?
Al-Ahli Jeddah have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Al-Ahli Jeddah are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 30% of those situations.
Al-Hazm are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 70% for Al-Ahli Jeddah, 70% for Al-Hazm — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Al-Ahli Jeddah and 60% for Al-Hazm. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 20% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Hazm in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Ahli Jeddah home games / Al-Hazm away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Ahli Jeddah play Al-Hazm?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of Al-Ahli Jeddah's games and 70% of Al-Hazm's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Hazm usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Al-Ahli Jeddah's matches and 60% of Al-Hazm's.
Do Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Hazm tend to score early?
Al-Ahli Jeddah have had a goal before half-time in 90% of their recent matches, Al-Hazm in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Ahli Jeddah cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Al-Hazm.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Ahli Jeddah beat Al-Hazm 2-0 at King Abdullah Sports City, Regular Season - 21, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ahli Jeddah 2.17 xG and Al-Hazm 0.90 xG, a combined 3.06. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Al-Hazm landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.45 / defence 0.76 against Al-Hazm attack 0.87 / defence 1.01, drawn from 53/19 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Ahli Jeddah 66% | Draw 20% | Al-Hazm 14%, with Al-Ahli Jeddah to win its most likely call at 66%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ahli Jeddah 42%, Al-Hazm 63%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Ahli Jeddah's trading profile (19 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 58% of the time, and duly kept one.
Al-Hazm's trading profile (19 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Ahli Jeddah arrived the stronger side — 2.32 PPG against 1.11. Form held, and they took the win. Al-Ahli Jeddah (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Al-Hazm (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.20 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.