Al-Ahli Jeddah 4-0 Al-Ettifaq – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Ahli Jeddah at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Ettifaq fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 8 sees Al-Ettifaq travel to Prince Abdullah al-Faisal Stadium to take on Al-Ahli Jeddah. The game is scheduled for Saturday 16 October 2021, 18:10 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Ahli Jeddah stand at 0W 5D 2L from 7 Pro League matches — 0.71 PPG. Last five: D D D L L. They are averaging 0.86 goals per game and conceding 1.43 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 71% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Al-Ahli Jeddah have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Al-Ahli Jeddah have posted 0W 3D 0L at Prince Abdullah al-Faisal Stadium — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 100% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Al-Ettifaq — All Games: 1W 4D 2L from 7 Pro League fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D D L L D. They are scoring at 1.71 per game and conceding 2.00. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 7 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 86% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Al-Ettifaq have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al-Ettifaq's form when playing away from home: 0W 2D 2L across 4 road games this term (0.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 100% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Al-Ahli Jeddah 0.71 PPG, Al-Ettifaq 1.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Both teams score in over 100% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
In-Play Data
Al-Ahli Jeddah trading profile (7 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 29% of cases; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 14% of games.
Al-Ettifaq trading profile (7 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 86% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games; Over 3.5 in 57%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al-Ahli Jeddah 71% and Al-Ettifaq 86% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Ahli Jeddah 14% | Al-Ettifaq 71%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.68 xG and Al-Ettifaq 1.45 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 0.898 / defence 1.099 | Al-Ettifaq attack 1.045 / defence 1.688. League average goals — home 1.109 / away 1.260. Al-Ettifaq bring a strong defensive rating of 1.688 — this is suppressing Al-Ahli Jeddah's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 7 Al-Ahli Jeddah games / 7 Al-Ettifaq games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Ahli Jeddah 41% | Draw 27% | Al-Ettifaq 31%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ahli Jeddah 2.44 | Draw 3.70 | Al-Ettifaq 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.13. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.13 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.68 / 1.45) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Al-Ahli Jeddah as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Ahli Jeddah offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.13 combined xG gives a 60% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 64% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al-Ahli Jeddah 100% | Al-Ettifaq 100% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Ettifaq | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Prince Abdullah al-Faisal Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 16 Oct 2021, 18:10 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Ahli Jeddah 41% | Draw 27% | Al-Ettifaq 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 64% | xG Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.68 / Al-Ettifaq 1.45 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 0.898 / def 1.099 | Al-Ettifaq attack 1.045 / def 1.688 | league avg home 1.109 / away 1.260 • Poisson stance: Al-Ahli Jeddah (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.68
Al-Ahli Jeddah xG
Expected Goals
1.45
Al-Ettifaq xG
64%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Ettifaq kick off?
Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Ettifaq kicked off at 18:10 on Saturday 16 October 2021 at Prince Abdullah al-Faisal Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Ettifaq?
Al-Ahli Jeddah 4 - 0 Al-Ettifaq.
Where is Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Ettifaq being played?
The match is being played at Prince Abdullah al-Faisal Stadium.
What competition is Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Ettifaq part of?
Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Ettifaq is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Ettifaq?
Our statistical model gives Al-Ahli Jeddah a 41% chance of winning, Al-Ettifaq a 31% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Al-Ahli Jeddah the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Ettifaq?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Ettifaq will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Ettifaq have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Ettifaq?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Ettifaq in?
Al-Ahli Jeddah (all comps): 0W-5D-2L in 7 | 0.71 PPG | GF 0.86 / GA 1.43 | L5 D-D-D-L-L. Al-Ettifaq (all comps): 1W-4D-2L in 7 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.71 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-D-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Al-Ahli Jeddah's attack rating (0.90) and Al-Ettifaq's defence rating (1.69), the model arrives at 1.68 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Ettifaq's attack versus Al-Ahli Jeddah's defence, projects 1.45 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 7/7 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-2 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ahli Jeddah Win
41%
2.42
27%
3.65
31%
3.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
1 – 2
7.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.68
Al-Ahli Jeddah xG
Total xG
3.13
1.45
Al-Ettifaq xG
2.42
41%
Home win
3.65
27%
Draw
3.20
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.56
36%
BTTS No
2.79
Clean Sheet
24%
4.25
19%
5.37
Win to Nil
10%
10.28
6%
17.18
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 6.3 | 4.6 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 10.7 | 7.7 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 9.0 | 6.5 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 5.0 | 3.6 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 2.1 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Ettifaq?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Ettifaq expected to score?
The model projects 1.68 expected goals for Al-Ahli Jeddah and 1.45 for Al-Ettifaq, a combined total of 3.13.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Ettifaq?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 7 outings, Al-Ahli Jeddah have picked up 0.71 PPG on a 0W 5D 2L record — D-D-D-L-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Al-Ahli Jeddah, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al-Ettifaq's form line: 1W 4D 2L from 7 games, 1.00 PPG, last five D-D-L-L-D. It's still early in the season for Al-Ettifaq, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al-Ahli Jeddah on 0.71 PPG, Al-Ettifaq on 1.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Al-Ahli Jeddah have posted 1.00 PPG from 3 outings (0W 3D 0L).
On the road, Al-Ettifaq have gone 0W 1D 2L from 3 away games — 0.33 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.00 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Al-Ettifaq's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Ahli Jeddah come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Al-Ahli Jeddah are averaging 0.86 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Al-Ettifaq are on 1.71 scored and 2.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Ahli Jeddah have seen both teams score in 71% of their recent games; Al-Ettifaq in 86%.
Last 7 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Ahli Jeddah
Early Season
Al-Ettifaq
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Ettifaq in coming into this match?
Al-Ahli Jeddah have gone 0W 5D 2L in their last 7 games (0.71 PPG), while Al-Ettifaq have gone 1W 4D 2L in their last 7 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Ahli Jeddah at home or Al-Ettifaq away?
Al-Ahli Jeddah's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Ahli Jeddah at home: 1.00 PPG; Al-Ettifaq away: 0.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Ettifaq runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 28 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 16 Oct 2021, when Al-Ahli Jeddah won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Ahli Jeddah's record when hosting Al-Ettifaq specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Al-Ahli Jeddah
3
Draws
2
Al-Ettifaq
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Ettifaq?
From 8 meetings on record, Al-Ahli Jeddah have won 3, Al-Ettifaq have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Ettifaq last play each other?
They last met on 28 January 2026, when Al-Ahli Jeddah 4-0 Al-Ettifaq.
Who has won more matches between Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Ettifaq?
Al-Ahli Jeddah have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al-Ahli Jeddah are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches.
Al-Ettifaq are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Al-Ahli Jeddah at 100%, Al-Ettifaq at 100%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 0% for Al-Ahli Jeddah and 67% for Al-Ettifaq.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Ahli Jeddah home games / Al-Ettifaq away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Ahli Jeddah play Al-Ettifaq?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Al-Ahli Jeddah's games and 100% of Al-Ettifaq's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Ettifaq usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Al-Ahli Jeddah's recent games and 67% of Al-Ettifaq's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Ettifaq tend to score early?
Al-Ahli Jeddah have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Al-Ettifaq in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Al-Ahli Jeddah run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Al-Ettifaq.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Ahli Jeddah beat Al-Ettifaq 4-0 at Prince Abdullah al-Faisal Stadium, Regular Season - 8, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.68 xG and Al-Ettifaq 1.45 xG, a combined 3.13. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Al-Ahli Jeddah beat their projection by 2.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Al-Ettifaq landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 0.90 / defence 1.10 against Al-Ettifaq attack 1.04 / defence 1.69, drawn from 7/7 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Ahli Jeddah 41% | Draw 27% | Al-Ettifaq 31%, with Al-Ahli Jeddah to win its most likely call at 41%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 38% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ahli Jeddah 14%, Al-Ettifaq 71%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 79%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Ahli Jeddah's trading profile (7 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did not.
Al-Ettifaq's trading profile (7 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 86% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al-Ahli Jeddah 0.71 PPG, Al-Ettifaq 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al-Ahli Jeddah win broke the near-deadlock. Al-Ahli Jeddah (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Al-Ettifaq (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.67 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 2.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.