Al-Ahli Jeddah 5-1 Abha – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Al-Ahli Jeddah at 76% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Al-Ahli Jeddah face Abha.

✍️ Match Preview

Pre-Match Analysis

Al-Ahli Jeddah and Abha meet at King Abdullah Sports City in Pro League (matchday 32). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 18 May 2024 at 20:00 UK time.

Form & Momentum

Al-Ahli Jeddah have collected 1.50 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: D L W L W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

In front of their own supporters, Al-Ahli Jeddah have posted 5W 3D 2L from their last 10 home games — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.

Abha (all games): 4W 2D 4L across their last 10 — 1.40 points per game. Last five: W L L W D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.

Abha's form when playing away from home: 0W 1D 9L across their last 10 road games (0.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 3.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.10 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

A near-identical PPG reading — 1.50 for Al-Ahli Jeddah, 1.40 for Abha — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.

Head-to-Head

Neither side has dominated the 3 H2H matches in our data: 1 wins for Al-Ahli Jeddah, 1 for Abha and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 3 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.3 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 30 Nov 2023, ended Al-Ahli Jeddah 6–0 Abha — a Al-Ahli Jeddah win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.3 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading Data

Al-Ahli Jeddah goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 31 games, 15 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 60% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; they lead at the break 45% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 48%; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.

Abha goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 31 games, 15 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; of the 6 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 55%; they fail to score in 36% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Ahli Jeddah 55% versus Abha 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Ahli Jeddah 61% | Abha 68%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ahli Jeddah 2.66 xG and Abha 0.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.016 / defence 0.802 | Abha attack 0.737 / defence 1.843. League average goals — home 1.419 / away 1.364. Abha's defence rating of 1.843 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Al-Ahli Jeddah's projected output up. Abha's attack rating of 0.737 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.81. Data: built from Al-Ahli Jeddah's last 31 games and Abha's last 61.

Result probabilities: Al-Ahli Jeddah 76% | Draw 17% | Abha 8%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.32 | Draw 5.99 | Abha 12.89. The model has a clear lean to Al-Ahli Jeddah (76%) — a 59pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS Yes probability 53% | Total xG 3.46. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.46 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 53% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Ahli Jeddah at 76% — clear model lean.

Poisson projects 3.46 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 67% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Al-Ahli Jeddah's last 10 home games and Abha's last 10 away games) averaging 3.5 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.3 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Al-Ahli Jeddah 40% (last 10 home games) | Abha 60% (last 10 away games).

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