Al-Adalah 2-2 Al Taee – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Al-Adalah at 38% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Al-Adalah face Al Taee.

✍️ Match Preview

Pre-Match Analysis

Al-Adalah and Al Taee meet at Prince Abdullah bin Jalawi Sports City Stadium in Pro League (matchday 17). This fixture gets under way on Thursday 16 February 2023 at 14:00 UK time.

Current Form

Al-Adalah's record over their last 10 games: 1W 2D 7L (0.50 PPG). Last five: W L D L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 2.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.40 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).

In front of their own supporters, Al-Adalah have posted 2W 1D 4L from their last 7 home games — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.71 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — Al-Adalah are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Al Taee have collected 0.60 PPG across their last 10 games: 2W 0D 8L. Last five: L L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).

When travelling, Al Taee have posted 3W 0D 7L from their last 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.

Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.50 vs 0.60 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.

H2H History

Neither side has dominated the 1 H2H match in our data: 0 wins for Al-Adalah, 1 for Al Taee and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.

Goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game across the 1 H2H match we hold, giving Under 2.5 a clear head-to-head base rate. The most recent of those, on 2 Sep 2022, ended Al-Adalah 0–1 Al Taee — a Al Taee win.

With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.

Trading Data

Al-Adalah goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 16 games, 7 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 56% of games.

Al Taee goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 16 games, 7 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 57% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Adalah 44% versus Al Taee 31%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Adalah 50% | Al Taee 50%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Adalah 1.12 xG and Al Taee 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Adalah attack 0.700 / defence 1.174 | Al Taee attack 0.772 / defence 1.102. League average goals — home 1.456 / away 1.142. Al-Adalah's attack rating of 0.700 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.12. Al Taee's attack rating of 0.772 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.04. Data: built from Al-Adalah's last 16 games and Al Taee's last 47.

Result probabilities: Al-Adalah 38% | Draw 29% | Al Taee 33%. Fair-value odds: Al-Adalah 2.67 | Draw 3.40 | Al Taee 3.02. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS Yes probability 44% | Total xG 2.16. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.16 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 56% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Al-Adalah as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Adalah if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.16 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 63% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Al-Adalah 43% (last 7 home games) | Al Taee 40% (last 10 away games).

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