Zenit 2-1 CSKA Moscow – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Zenit at 70%, yet other data sources diverge — this Zenit vs CSKA Moscow fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier League clash, Regular Season - 5 as Zenit welcome CSKA Moscow to Saint-Petersburg Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 13 August 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier League games this season, Zenit have gone 6W 3D 1L from 10 outings — a 2.10 PPG return. Last five: L D W W D. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Zenit have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Saint-Petersburg Stadium, Zenit have gone 9W 1D 0L this season (10 games, 2.80 PPG). They are averaging 3.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Saint-Petersburg Stadium. Their home PPG of 2.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.10 — Zenit are significantly better at Saint-Petersburg Stadium than their overall form suggests.
CSKA Moscow — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Premier League fixtures this season — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W W D W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. CSKA Moscow have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
CSKA Moscow away from home this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 2.10 PPG (Zenit) versus 1.70 (CSKA Moscow). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Zenit, 0 for CSKA Moscow and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.5 per contest from 2 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 28 Nov 2021, ended 2–0 with Zenit winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Zenit in-play and half-time data (34 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; they lead at the break 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 81% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
CSKA Moscow in-play and half-time data (34 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Zenit 65% versus CSKA Moscow 38%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Zenit 56% | CSKA Moscow 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Zenit 2.49 xG and CSKA Moscow 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Zenit attack 1.460 / defence 0.721 | CSKA Moscow attack 1.056 / defence 1.043. League average goals — home 1.635 / away 1.232. Zenit carry an above-average attack strength of 1.460 — their λ of 2.49 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Zenit's defence rating of 0.721 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 34 Zenit games / 34 CSKA Moscow games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Zenit 70% | Draw 20% | CSKA Moscow 10%. Fair-value odds: Zenit 1.43 | Draw 5.00 | CSKA Moscow 10.00. The model has a clear lean to Zenit (70%) — a 60pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 3.43. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.43 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Zenit as the most likely outcome at 70% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.43 combined xG gives a 67% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Zenit 50% | CSKA Moscow 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Zenit vs CSKA Moscow | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Saint-Petersburg Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Aug 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Zenit 70% | Draw 20% | CSKA Moscow 10% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% | BTTS 58% | xG Zenit 2.49 / CSKA Moscow 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Zenit attack 1.460 / def 0.721 | CSKA Moscow attack 1.056 / def 1.043 | league avg home 1.635 / away 1.232 • Poisson stance: Zenit (70%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.49
Zenit xG
Expected Goals
0.94
CSKA Moscow xG
58%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Zenit vs CSKA Moscow kick off?
Zenit vs CSKA Moscow kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 13 August 2022 at Saint-Petersburg Stadium.
What was the final score in Zenit vs CSKA Moscow?
Zenit 2 - 1 CSKA Moscow.
Where is Zenit vs CSKA Moscow being played?
The match is being played at Saint-Petersburg Stadium.
What competition is Zenit vs CSKA Moscow part of?
Zenit vs CSKA Moscow is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Zenit vs CSKA Moscow?
Our statistical model gives Zenit a 70% chance of winning, CSKA Moscow a 10% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Zenit the favourite.
Will both teams score in Zenit vs CSKA Moscow?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Zenit and CSKA Moscow will score (BTTS).
Will Zenit vs CSKA Moscow have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%.
What is the head-to-head record between Zenit and CSKA Moscow?
Record (2 meetings): Zenit 2W | Draws 0 | CSKA Moscow 0W.
What form are Zenit and CSKA Moscow in?
Zenit (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.60 | L5 L-D-W-W-D. CSKA Moscow (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Zenit's attack rating (1.46) and CSKA Moscow's defence rating (1.04), the model arrives at 2.49 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, CSKA Moscow's attack versus Zenit's defence, projects 0.94 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 34/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 1-1 (8.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Zenit Win
70%
1.44
20%
5.01
10%
9.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.1%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
3 – 0
8.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.49
Zenit xG
Total xG
3.43
0.94
CSKA Moscow xG
1.44
70%
Home win
5.01
20%
Draw
9.55
10%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
45%
Over 3.5
2.22
55%
Under 3.5
1.82
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.74
42%
BTTS No
2.35
Clean Sheet
39%
2.55
8%
12.07
Win to Nil
27%
3.67
1%
115.31
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.2 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 8.1 | 7.6 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 10.1 | 9.4 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 8.4 | 7.8 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 5.2 | 4.9 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 2.6 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Zenit vs CSKA Moscow?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.1%.
How many goals are Zenit and CSKA Moscow expected to score?
The model projects 2.49 expected goals for Zenit and 0.94 for CSKA Moscow, a combined total of 3.43.
How confident is the prediction model for Zenit vs CSKA Moscow?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 70%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Zenit's recent record stands at 21W 10D 3L from 34 games, a 2.15 PPG return, with L-D-W-W-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Zenit, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
CSKA Moscow, meanwhile, have gone 18W 6D 10L across 34 games — 1.76 PPG, with W-W-W-D-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for CSKA Moscow, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Zenit on 2.15 PPG, CSKA Moscow on 1.76. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Zenit have managed 14W 1D 1L from 16 games — 2.69 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 2.15 PPG overall — Zenit are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
CSKA Moscow's away record stands at 6W 3D 7L across 16 trips, a 1.31 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.76 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of CSKA Moscow's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Zenit come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Zenit are averaging 2.21 goals scored and 0.85 conceded per game recently; CSKA Moscow are on 1.56 scored and 0.94 conceded. Zenit's scoring rate against CSKA Moscow's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
On BTTS specifically: Zenit have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Defensively: CSKA Moscow in 44% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 34 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Zenit
Early Season
CSKA Moscow
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Zenit and CSKA Moscow in coming into this match?
Zenit have gone 21W 10D 3L in their last 34 games (2.15 PPG), while CSKA Moscow have gone 18W 6D 10L in their last 34 (1.76 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Zenit at home or CSKA Moscow away?
Zenit's home record (2.69 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Zenit at home: 2.69 PPG; CSKA Moscow away: 1.31 PPG.
Have Zenit or CSKA Moscow been keeping clean sheets recently?
Zenit have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, CSKA Moscow in 44%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 2 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Zenit's record when hosting CSKA Moscow specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Zenit
3
Draws
2
CSKA Moscow
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Zenit and CSKA Moscow?
From 10 meetings on record, Zenit have won 5, CSKA Moscow have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Zenit and CSKA Moscow last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2026, when CSKA Moscow 1-3 Zenit.
Who has won more matches between Zenit and CSKA Moscow?
Zenit have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Zenit are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 62% of the time.
CSKA Moscow see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Zenit 62%, CSKA Moscow 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 81% for Zenit and 44% for CSKA Moscow. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 56% and 31% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Zenit keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Zenit home games / CSKA Moscow away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Zenit play CSKA Moscow?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Zenit's games and 50% of CSKA Moscow's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Zenit vs CSKA Moscow usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 81% of Zenit's matches and 44% of CSKA Moscow's.
Do Zenit and CSKA Moscow tend to score early?
Zenit have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, CSKA Moscow in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Zenit edge out CSKA Moscow 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Zenit beat CSKA Moscow 2-1 at Saint-Petersburg Stadium, Regular Season - 5, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Zenit 2.49 xG and CSKA Moscow 0.94 xG, a combined 3.43. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Zenit attack 1.46 / defence 0.72 against CSKA Moscow attack 1.06 / defence 1.04, drawn from 34/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Zenit 70% | Draw 20% | CSKA Moscow 10%, with Zenit to win its most likely call at 70%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 45% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Zenit 56%, CSKA Moscow 41%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Zenit's trading profile (34 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
CSKA Moscow's trading profile (34 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Zenit 2.15 PPG, CSKA Moscow 1.76 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Zenit win broke the near-deadlock. Zenit (home/away splits) managed 2 against a 3.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.