Ural 1-2 Akhmat – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Akhmat at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ural vs Akhmat fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Ural host Akhmat at Ekaterinburg Arena in Premier League, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 17 September 2022 at 10:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Ural — All Games: 2W 1D 7L from 10 Premier League outings this season, averaging 0.70 points per game. Last five: D L L L W. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Ural, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Ekaterinburg Arena, Ural have gone 3W 0D 7L this season (10 games, 0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Premier League games this season, Akhmat have recorded 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Akhmat, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Akhmat's away record: 3W 3D 4L from 10 road trips in Premier League this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Akhmat — 0.50 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.20 vs 0.70). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Ural have won 0, Akhmat 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The last 2 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 0.5 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 13 Mar 2022, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Ural in-play and half-time data (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 47% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 32% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 26% of games (home games); they fail to score in 51% of games.
Akhmat in-play and half-time data (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ural 36% versus Akhmat 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ural 38% | Akhmat 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ural 1.11 xG and Akhmat 1.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ural attack 0.684 / defence 1.190 | Akhmat attack 1.211 / defence 0.967. League average goals — home 1.680 / away 1.275. Ural's attack strength of 0.684 is below the league average — the 1.11 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Akhmat have an above-average attack strength of 1.211 — the away xG of 1.84 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 39 Ural games / 39 Akhmat games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ural 21% | Draw 26% | Akhmat 53%. Fair-value odds: Ural 4.76 | Draw 3.85 | Akhmat 1.89. Akhmat hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.95. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.95 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Akhmat are the pick at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Akhmat offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.95 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 57% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates are neutral: Ural 30% | Akhmat 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ural vs Akhmat | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Ekaterinburg Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Sep 2022, 10:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ural 21% | Draw 26% | Akhmat 53% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 58% | xG Ural 1.11 / Akhmat 1.84 • Poisson strength factors: Ural attack 0.684 / def 1.190 | Akhmat attack 1.211 / def 0.967 | league avg home 1.680 / away 1.275 • Poisson stance: Akhmat (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.11
Ural xG
Expected Goals
1.84
Akhmat xG
58%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ural vs Akhmat kick off?
Ural vs Akhmat kicked off at 10:00 on Saturday 17 September 2022 at Ekaterinburg Arena.
What was the final score in Ural vs Akhmat?
Ural 1 - 2 Akhmat.
Where is Ural vs Akhmat being played?
The match is being played at Ekaterinburg Arena.
What competition is Ural vs Akhmat part of?
Ural vs Akhmat is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Ural vs Akhmat?
Our statistical model gives Ural a 21% chance of winning, Akhmat a 53% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Akhmat the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ural vs Akhmat?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Ural and Akhmat will score (BTTS).
Will Ural vs Akhmat have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ural and Akhmat?
Record (2 meetings): Ural 0W | Draws 1 | Akhmat 1W.
What form are Ural and Akhmat in?
Ural (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-L-L-L-W. Akhmat (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Ural's attack at 0.68x the league average against Akhmat's defence at 0.97x — combine the two and it projects 1.11 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Akhmat's attack versus Ural's defence, projects 1.84 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 39/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.8%), 0-2 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Akhmat Win
21%
4.74
26%
3.79
53%
1.90
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.8%
Away win
0 – 1
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.11
Ural xG
Total xG
2.95
1.84
Akhmat xG
4.74
21%
Home win
3.79
26%
Draw
1.90
53%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.39
Clean Sheet
16%
6.27
33%
3.04
Win to Nil
3%
29.74
17%
5.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 9.6 | 8.8 | 5.4 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 5.8 | 10.7 | 9.8 | 6.0 | 2.8 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 3.2 | 6.0 | 5.5 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 2.2 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ural vs Akhmat?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Ural and Akhmat expected to score?
The model projects 1.11 expected goals for Ural and 1.84 for Akhmat, a combined total of 2.95.
How confident is the prediction model for Ural vs Akhmat?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 39 outings, Ural have picked up 0.95 PPG on a 9W 10D 20L record — D-L-L-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Ural is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Akhmat's form line: 16W 5D 18L from 39 games, 1.36 PPG, last five W-L-L-W-L. The sample for Akhmat is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Akhmat are the form team by 0.41 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Ural.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Ural have posted 0.95 PPG from 19 outings (4W 6D 9L).
On the road, Akhmat have gone 6W 3D 10L from 19 away games — 1.11 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Ural are averaging 0.79 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Akhmat are on 1.26 scored and 1.36 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Akhmat in 62%.
Last 39 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ural
Blended
Akhmat
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ural and Akhmat in coming into this match?
Ural have gone 9W 10D 20L in their last 39 games (0.95 PPG), while Akhmat have gone 16W 5D 18L in their last 39 (1.36 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ural at home or Akhmat away?
Akhmat's away record (1.11 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ural at home: 0.95 PPG; Akhmat away: 1.11 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Ural and Akhmat runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 31 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Ural's record when hosting Akhmat specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Ural
1
Draws
6
Akhmat
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ural and Akhmat?
From 8 meetings on record, Ural have won 1, Akhmat have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Ural and Akhmat last play each other?
They last met on 31 May 2025, when Akhmat 2-0 Ural.
Who has won more matches between Ural and Akhmat?
Akhmat have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Ural see a goal before the break in 47% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Akhmat are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ural 32%, Akhmat 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 26% (Ural) and 58% (Akhmat).
On the defensive side: Ural keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Ural have failed to score in 53% of games; Akhmat in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ural home games / Akhmat away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ural play Akhmat?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 32% of Ural's recent matches and 63% of Akhmat's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ural vs Akhmat usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 26% of Ural's recent games and 58% of Akhmat's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ural and Akhmat tend to score early?
Ural have had a goal before half-time in 47% of their recent matches, Akhmat in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Akhmat edge out Ural 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Akhmat beat Ural 1-2 at Ekaterinburg Arena, Regular Season - 10, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ural 1.11 xG and Akhmat 1.84 xG, a combined 2.95. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ural attack 0.68 / defence 1.19 against Akhmat attack 1.21 / defence 0.97, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ural 21% | Draw 26% | Akhmat 53%, with Akhmat to win its most likely call at 53%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ural 38%, Akhmat 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ural's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did.
Akhmat's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Akhmat arrived the stronger side — 1.36 PPG against 0.95. That form edge translated into the three points. Ural (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.11 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Akhmat (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.11 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.