Rubin 2-3 Dynamo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Rubin at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Rubin vs Dynamo fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 16 sees Dynamo travel to Kazan' Arena to take on Rubin. The game is scheduled for Sunday 28 November 2021, 13:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Rubin stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Premier League matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D D W L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Rubin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Rubin at Kazan' Arena this season: 4W 2D 2L from 8 home games — 1.75 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 3 home clean sheets from 8 games (38%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.75 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Rubin are significantly better at Kazan' Arena than their overall form suggests.
Dynamo — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Premier League fixtures this season — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D W L W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.20. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Dynamo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Dynamo away from home this season: 4W 1D 2L from 7 away games — 1.86 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.57 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game. 3 clean sheets from 7 away games (43%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 57% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Dynamo are 0.60 PPG ahead (1.70 vs 1.10), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Rubin, 1 for Dynamo and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Sep 2021, ended 0–2 with Dynamo winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Rubin trading profile (15 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games).
Dynamo trading profile (15 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; they lead at the break 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rubin 53% versus Dynamo 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rubin 47% | Dynamo 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rubin 1.42 xG and Dynamo 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rubin attack 0.979 / defence 1.154 | Dynamo attack 0.995 / defence 1.177. League average goals — home 1.234 / away 1.088. Data: 15 Rubin games / 15 Dynamo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rubin 40% | Draw 28% | Dynamo 32%. Fair-value odds: Rubin 2.50 | Draw 3.57 | Dynamo 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.67. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.67 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Rubin at 40% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Dynamo (1.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Rubin offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.67 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 50% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Rubin 50% | Dynamo 57%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rubin vs Dynamo | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Kazan' Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 28 Nov 2021, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rubin 40% | Draw 28% | Dynamo 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 55% | xG Rubin 1.42 / Dynamo 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Rubin attack 0.979 / def 1.154 | Dynamo attack 0.995 / def 1.177 | league avg home 1.234 / away 1.088 • Poisson stance: Rubin (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.42
Rubin xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Dynamo xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rubin vs Dynamo kick off?
Rubin vs Dynamo kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 28 November 2021 at Kazan' Arena.
What was the final score in Rubin vs Dynamo?
Rubin 2 - 3 Dynamo.
Where is Rubin vs Dynamo being played?
The match is being played at Kazan' Arena.
What competition is Rubin vs Dynamo part of?
Rubin vs Dynamo is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Rubin vs Dynamo?
Our statistical model gives Rubin a 40% chance of winning, Dynamo a 32% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Rubin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rubin vs Dynamo?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Rubin and Dynamo will score (BTTS).
Will Rubin vs Dynamo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rubin and Dynamo?
Record (1 meetings): Rubin 0W | Draws 0 | Dynamo 1W.
What form are Rubin and Dynamo in?
Rubin (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-D-W-L-W. Dynamo (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Rubin's attack at 0.98x the league average against Dynamo's defence at 1.18x — combine the two and it projects 1.42 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Dynamo's attack versus Rubin's defence, projects 1.25 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 15/15 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 0-0 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rubin Win
40%
2.51
28%
3.54
32%
3.14
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.42
Rubin xG
Total xG
2.67
1.25
Dynamo xG
2.51
40%
Home win
3.54
28%
Draw
3.14
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.24
Clean Sheet
29%
3.48
24%
4.15
Win to Nil
11%
8.73
8%
13.00
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 8.6 | 5.4 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 12.3 | 7.7 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 8.7 | 5.5 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 4.1 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rubin vs Dynamo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Rubin and Dynamo expected to score?
The model projects 1.42 expected goals for Rubin and 1.25 for Dynamo, a combined total of 2.67.
How confident is the prediction model for Rubin vs Dynamo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Rubin's recent record stands at 6W 4D 5L from 15 games, a 1.47 PPG return, with D-D-W-L-W in the last five. The sample for Rubin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Dynamo, meanwhile, have gone 9W 2D 4L across 15 games — 1.93 PPG, with D-W-L-W-W in their last five. The sample for Dynamo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Dynamo by 0.46 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Rubin heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Rubin have managed 3W 2D 2L from 7 games — 1.57 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Dynamo's away record stands at 4W 1D 2L across 7 trips, a 1.86 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Rubin are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Dynamo are on 1.80 scored and 1.13 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Dynamo in 60%.
Last 15 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rubin
Blended
Dynamo
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rubin and Dynamo in coming into this match?
Rubin have gone 6W 4D 5L in their last 15 games (1.47 PPG), while Dynamo have gone 9W 2D 4L in their last 15 (1.93 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rubin at home or Dynamo away?
Dynamo's away record (1.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rubin at home: 1.57 PPG; Dynamo away: 1.86 PPG.
Have Rubin or Dynamo been keeping clean sheets recently?
Rubin have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Dynamo in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Rubin and Dynamo runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 22 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 20 Oct 2024, when Dynamo won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Rubin's record when hosting Dynamo specifically: 0W 2D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Rubin
2
Draws
5
Dynamo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rubin and Dynamo?
From 8 meetings on record, Rubin have won 1, Dynamo have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Rubin and Dynamo last play each other?
They last met on 22 April 2026, when Dynamo 0-1 Rubin.
Who has won more matches between Rubin and Dynamo?
Dynamo have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Rubin see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Dynamo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 71% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rubin 57%, Dynamo 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Rubin) and 57% (Dynamo). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 43% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Dynamo in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rubin home games / Dynamo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rubin play Dynamo?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Rubin's games and 57% of Dynamo's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Rubin vs Dynamo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of Rubin's matches and 57% of Dynamo's.
Do Rubin and Dynamo tend to score early?
Rubin have had a goal before half-time in 57% of their recent matches, Dynamo in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Dynamo defy the odds to beat Rubin 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dynamo beat Rubin 2-3 at Kazan' Arena, Regular Season - 16, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rubin 1.42 xG and Dynamo 1.25 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Dynamo outscored their 1.25 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rubin attack 0.98 / defence 1.15 against Dynamo attack 0.99 / defence 1.18, drawn from 15/15 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rubin 40% | Draw 28% | Dynamo 32%, with Rubin to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Dynamo win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rubin 47%, Dynamo 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rubin's trading profile (15 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Dynamo's trading profile (15 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Dynamo arrived the stronger side — 1.93 PPG against 1.47. Form held, and they took the win. Rubin (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.14 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Dynamo (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.57 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.