Nizhny Novgorod 1-4 FC Krasnodar – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC Krasnodar at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Nizhny Novgorod vs FC Krasnodar fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Nizhny Novgorod and FC Krasnodar meet at Stadion Nizhny Novgorod in Premier League, Regular Season - 12. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 23 October 2021 at 12:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Nizhny Novgorod have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: W L L W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Nizhny Novgorod, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Nizhny Novgorod at Stadion Nizhny Novgorod this season: 1W 0D 4L from 5 home games — 0.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.60 lags behind their overall 1.10 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stadion Nizhny Novgorod this season.
FC Krasnodar (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Premier League outings this term — 1.50 points per game. Last five: D W W D D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.00. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for FC Krasnodar, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, FC Krasnodar have gone 2W 2D 2L from 6 away fixtures this term (1.33 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 3 away clean sheets from 6 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.10 for Nizhny Novgorod, 1.50 for FC Krasnodar — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading
Nizhny Novgorod half-time and goal-timing data (11 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games).
FC Krasnodar half-time and goal-timing data (11 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Nizhny Novgorod 64% versus FC Krasnodar 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Nizhny Novgorod 46% | FC Krasnodar 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nizhny Novgorod 0.91 xG and FC Krasnodar 1.52 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nizhny Novgorod attack 0.814 / defence 1.411 | FC Krasnodar attack 0.924 / defence 1.052. League average goals — home 1.059 / away 1.166. Data: 11 Nizhny Novgorod games / 11 FC Krasnodar games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Nizhny Novgorod 23% | Draw 26% | FC Krasnodar 52%. Fair-value odds: Nizhny Novgorod 4.35 | Draw 3.85 | FC Krasnodar 1.92. FC Krasnodar hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.43. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.43 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, FC Krasnodar are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on FC Krasnodar if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.43 combined xG gives a 44% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 47%. Form rates are neutral: Nizhny Novgorod 60% | FC Krasnodar 50%.
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🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nizhny Novgorod vs FC Krasnodar | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Stadion Nizhny Novgorod • Kick-off: Saturday 23 Oct 2021, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nizhny Novgorod 23% | Draw 26% | FC Krasnodar 52% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 47% | xG Nizhny Novgorod 0.91 / FC Krasnodar 1.52 • Poisson strength factors: Nizhny Novgorod attack 0.814 / def 1.411 | FC Krasnodar attack 0.924 / def 1.052 | league avg home 1.059 / away 1.166 • Poisson stance: FC Krasnodar (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.91
Nizhny Novgorod xG
Expected Goals
1.52
FC Krasnodar xG
47%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nizhny Novgorod vs FC Krasnodar kick off?
Nizhny Novgorod vs FC Krasnodar kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 23 October 2021 at Stadion Nizhny Novgorod.
What was the final score in Nizhny Novgorod vs FC Krasnodar?
Nizhny Novgorod 1 - 4 FC Krasnodar.
Where is Nizhny Novgorod vs FC Krasnodar being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Nizhny Novgorod.
What competition is Nizhny Novgorod vs FC Krasnodar part of?
Nizhny Novgorod vs FC Krasnodar is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Nizhny Novgorod vs FC Krasnodar?
Our statistical model gives Nizhny Novgorod a 23% chance of winning, FC Krasnodar a 52% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making FC Krasnodar the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nizhny Novgorod vs FC Krasnodar?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Nizhny Novgorod and FC Krasnodar will score (BTTS).
Will Nizhny Novgorod vs FC Krasnodar have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nizhny Novgorod and FC Krasnodar?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Nizhny Novgorod and FC Krasnodar in?
Nizhny Novgorod (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-L-W-L. FC Krasnodar (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Nizhny Novgorod's attacking strength (0.81x league average) is weighed against FC Krasnodar's defensive record (1.05x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.91. Flip it around — FC Krasnodar's attack (0.92x) against Nizhny Novgorod's defence (1.41x) — and the away total comes out at 1.52.
These ratings are built from 11/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.8%. Close behind: 0-1 (11.8%), 0-0 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Krasnodar Win
23%
4.44
26%
3.86
52%
1.94
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.4%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
0 – 2
10.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.91
Nizhny Novgorod xG
Total xG
2.43
1.52
FC Krasnodar xG
4.44
23%
Home win
3.86
26%
Draw
1.94
52%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.15
53%
BTTS No
1.87
Clean Sheet
22%
4.57
40%
2.48
Win to Nil
5%
20.31
21%
4.81
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.8 | 13.4 | 10.2 | 5.2 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 12.2 | 9.3 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 3.6 | 5.5 | 4.2 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nizhny Novgorod vs FC Krasnodar?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Nizhny Novgorod and FC Krasnodar expected to score?
The model projects 0.91 expected goals for Nizhny Novgorod and 1.52 for FC Krasnodar, a combined total of 2.43.
How confident is the prediction model for Nizhny Novgorod vs FC Krasnodar?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 11 outings, Nizhny Novgorod have picked up 1.27 PPG on a 4W 2D 5L record — W-L-L-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Nizhny Novgorod is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FC Krasnodar's form line: 5W 3D 3L from 11 games, 1.64 PPG, last five D-W-W-D-D. The sample for FC Krasnodar is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.27 PPG for Nizhny Novgorod against 1.64 for FC Krasnodar. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Nizhny Novgorod have posted 0.60 PPG from 5 outings (1W 0D 4L). That actually lags their 1.27 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
On the road, FC Krasnodar have gone 1W 2D 2L from 5 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.64 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of FC Krasnodar's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Krasnodar come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Nizhny Novgorod are averaging 1.09 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; FC Krasnodar are on 1.64 scored and 0.91 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Nizhny Novgorod have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Defensively: FC Krasnodar in 45% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 11 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nizhny Novgorod
Blended
FC Krasnodar
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Nizhny Novgorod and FC Krasnodar in coming into this match?
Nizhny Novgorod have gone 4W 2D 5L in their last 11 games (1.27 PPG), while FC Krasnodar have gone 5W 3D 3L in their last 11 (1.64 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nizhny Novgorod at home or FC Krasnodar away?
FC Krasnodar's away record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nizhny Novgorod at home: 0.60 PPG; FC Krasnodar away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Nizhny Novgorod or FC Krasnodar been keeping clean sheets recently?
Nizhny Novgorod have kept a clean sheet in 18% of their recent games, FC Krasnodar in 45%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 21 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
FC Krasnodar have won the last 8 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: FC Krasnodar won 5-0 on 21 Mar 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Nizhny Novgorod have gone 0W 0D 5L from 5 meetings on their own ground against FC Krasnodar — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Nizhny Novgorod
1
Draws
9
FC Krasnodar
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nizhny Novgorod and FC Krasnodar?
From 10 meetings on record, Nizhny Novgorod have won 0, FC Krasnodar have won 9, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Nizhny Novgorod and FC Krasnodar last play each other?
They last met on 21 March 2026, when FC Krasnodar 5-0 Nizhny Novgorod.
Who has won more matches between Nizhny Novgorod and FC Krasnodar?
FC Krasnodar have the better head-to-head record, with 9 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Nizhny Novgorod are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
FC Krasnodar are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Nizhny Novgorod 60%, FC Krasnodar 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Nizhny Novgorod) and 40% (FC Krasnodar).
On the defensive side: FC Krasnodar in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nizhny Novgorod home games / FC Krasnodar away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Nizhny Novgorod play FC Krasnodar?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Nizhny Novgorod's games and 60% of FC Krasnodar's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Nizhny Novgorod vs FC Krasnodar usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Nizhny Novgorod's recent games and 40% of FC Krasnodar's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Nizhny Novgorod and FC Krasnodar tend to score early?
Nizhny Novgorod have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, FC Krasnodar in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant FC Krasnodar run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Nizhny Novgorod.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Krasnodar beat Nizhny Novgorod 1-4 at Stadion Nizhny Novgorod, Regular Season - 12, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nizhny Novgorod 0.91 xG and FC Krasnodar 1.52 xG, a combined 2.43. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. FC Krasnodar outscored their 1.52 projection by 2.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nizhny Novgorod attack 0.81 / defence 1.41 against FC Krasnodar attack 0.92 / defence 1.05, drawn from 11/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nizhny Novgorod 23% | Draw 26% | FC Krasnodar 52%, with FC Krasnodar to win its most likely call at 52%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nizhny Novgorod 46%, FC Krasnodar 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nizhny Novgorod's trading profile (11 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
FC Krasnodar's trading profile (11 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Nizhny Novgorod 1.27 PPG, FC Krasnodar 1.64 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC Krasnodar win broke the near-deadlock. Nizhny Novgorod (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.80 concession average — a leakier day than usual. FC Krasnodar (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.