Nizhny Novgorod 1-2 CSKA Moscow – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Nizhny Novgorod at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Nizhny Novgorod vs CSKA Moscow fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Sovcombank Arena plays host to Nizhny Novgorod versus CSKA Moscow in Premier League, Regular Season - 29. Kick-off: Monday 11 May 2026 at 13:15 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Nizhny Novgorod have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: D D L L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Nizhny Novgorod at Sovcombank Arena this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 home games — 0.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
CSKA Moscow's overall Premier League record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: L D D D L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Premier League this season, CSKA Moscow have posted 3W 2D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.80 PPG for Nizhny Novgorod against 0.90 for CSKA Moscow. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
Across the last 9 meetings, CSKA Moscow have the stronger historical record — 7 wins to Nizhny Novgorod's 1, with 1 draws in the mix.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.1 goals per game across 9 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 31 Oct 2025, ended 0–2 with CSKA Moscow winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. CSKA Moscow have won 7 of 9 previous encounters, and at 3.1 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Data
Nizhny Novgorod goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (58 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
CSKA Moscow goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (58 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Nizhny Novgorod 45% versus CSKA Moscow 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Nizhny Novgorod 55% | CSKA Moscow 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nizhny Novgorod 1.02 xG and CSKA Moscow 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nizhny Novgorod attack 0.902 / defence 1.000 | CSKA Moscow attack 0.873 / defence 0.836. League average goals — home 1.351 / away 1.063. Data: 58 Nizhny Novgorod games / 58 CSKA Moscow games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Nizhny Novgorod 37% | Draw 31% | CSKA Moscow 32%. Fair-value odds: Nizhny Novgorod 2.70 | Draw 3.23 | CSKA Moscow 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 1.95. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.95 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Nizhny Novgorod as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Nizhny Novgorod if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.95 combined xG gives a 31% probability to Under 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.1 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 39%. Form rates corroborate: Nizhny Novgorod 40% | CSKA Moscow 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nizhny Novgorod vs CSKA Moscow | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Sovcombank Arena • Kick-off: Monday 11 May 2026, 13:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nizhny Novgorod 37% | Draw 31% | CSKA Moscow 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 39% | xG Nizhny Novgorod 1.02 / CSKA Moscow 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: Nizhny Novgorod attack 0.902 / def 1.000 | CSKA Moscow attack 0.873 / def 0.836 | league avg home 1.351 / away 1.063 • Poisson stance: Nizhny Novgorod (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.02
Nizhny Novgorod xG
Expected Goals
0.93
CSKA Moscow xG
39%
BTTS
58%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nizhny Novgorod vs CSKA Moscow kick off?
Nizhny Novgorod vs CSKA Moscow kicked off at 13:15 on Monday 11 May 2026 at Sovcombank Arena.
What was the final score in Nizhny Novgorod vs CSKA Moscow?
Nizhny Novgorod 1 - 2 CSKA Moscow.
Where is Nizhny Novgorod vs CSKA Moscow being played?
The match is being played at Sovcombank Arena.
What competition is Nizhny Novgorod vs CSKA Moscow part of?
Nizhny Novgorod vs CSKA Moscow is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Nizhny Novgorod vs CSKA Moscow?
Our statistical model gives Nizhny Novgorod a 37% chance of winning, CSKA Moscow a 32% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Nizhny Novgorod the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nizhny Novgorod vs CSKA Moscow?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Nizhny Novgorod and CSKA Moscow will score (BTTS).
Will Nizhny Novgorod vs CSKA Moscow have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nizhny Novgorod and CSKA Moscow?
Record (9 meetings): Nizhny Novgorod 1W | Draws 1 | CSKA Moscow 7W.
What form are Nizhny Novgorod and CSKA Moscow in?
Nizhny Novgorod (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-D-L-L-L. CSKA Moscow (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Nizhny Novgorod's attack at 0.90x the league average against CSKA Moscow's defence at 0.84x — combine the two and it projects 1.02 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — CSKA Moscow's attack (0.87x) against Nizhny Novgorod's defence (1.00x) — and the away total comes out at 0.93.
These ratings are built from 58/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 16.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 1-0 (12.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Nizhny Novgorod Win
37%
2.72
31%
3.19
32%
3.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.5%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.3%
Draw
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.02
Nizhny Novgorod xG
Total xG
1.95
0.93
CSKA Moscow xG
2.72
37%
Home win
3.19
31%
Draw
3.13
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.59
61%
BTTS No
1.63
Clean Sheet
40%
2.53
36%
2.77
Win to Nil
15%
6.88
12%
8.68
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.3 | 13.2 | 6.1 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.5 | 13.5 | 6.3 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 6.9 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.5 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nizhny Novgorod vs CSKA Moscow?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.0%.
How many goals are Nizhny Novgorod and CSKA Moscow expected to score?
The model projects 1.02 expected goals for Nizhny Novgorod and 0.93 for CSKA Moscow, a combined total of 1.95.
How confident is the prediction model for Nizhny Novgorod vs CSKA Moscow?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Nizhny Novgorod's recent record stands at 14W 10D 34L from 58 games, a 0.90 PPG return, with D-D-L-L-L in the last five.
CSKA Moscow, meanwhile, have gone 30W 14D 14L across 58 games — 1.79 PPG, with L-D-D-D-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours CSKA Moscow by 0.89 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Nizhny Novgorod heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Nizhny Novgorod have managed 8W 7D 13L from 28 games — 1.11 PPG in front of their own supporters.
CSKA Moscow's away record stands at 13W 8D 7L across 28 trips, a 1.68 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, CSKA Moscow come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Nizhny Novgorod are averaging 0.88 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; CSKA Moscow are on 1.48 scored and 0.90 conceded.
Defensively: CSKA Moscow in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 58 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nizhny Novgorod
Current Season
CSKA Moscow
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Nizhny Novgorod and CSKA Moscow in coming into this match?
Nizhny Novgorod have gone 14W 10D 34L in their last 58 games (0.90 PPG), while CSKA Moscow have gone 30W 14D 14L in their last 58 (1.79 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nizhny Novgorod at home or CSKA Moscow away?
CSKA Moscow's away record (1.68 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nizhny Novgorod at home: 1.11 PPG; CSKA Moscow away: 1.68 PPG.
Have Nizhny Novgorod or CSKA Moscow been keeping clean sheets recently?
Nizhny Novgorod have kept a clean sheet in 19% of their recent games, CSKA Moscow in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 11 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
CSKA Moscow go into this on the back of 6 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: CSKA Moscow won 2-6 on 20 May 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Nizhny Novgorod have gone 0W 1D 4L from 5 meetings on their own ground against CSKA Moscow — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Nizhny Novgorod
1
Draws
8
CSKA Moscow
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nizhny Novgorod and CSKA Moscow?
From 10 meetings on record, Nizhny Novgorod have won 1, CSKA Moscow have won 8, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Nizhny Novgorod and CSKA Moscow last play each other?
They last met on 11 May 2026, when Nizhny Novgorod 1-2 CSKA Moscow.
Who has won more matches between Nizhny Novgorod and CSKA Moscow?
CSKA Moscow have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Nizhny Novgorod are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
CSKA Moscow are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Nizhny Novgorod 50%, CSKA Moscow 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Nizhny Novgorod) and 43% (CSKA Moscow).
On the defensive side: CSKA Moscow in 32%; Nizhny Novgorod have failed to score in 36% of games; CSKA Moscow in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nizhny Novgorod home games / CSKA Moscow away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Nizhny Novgorod play CSKA Moscow?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Nizhny Novgorod's recent matches and 50% of CSKA Moscow's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Nizhny Novgorod vs CSKA Moscow usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Nizhny Novgorod's recent games and 43% of CSKA Moscow's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Nizhny Novgorod and CSKA Moscow tend to score early?
Nizhny Novgorod have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, CSKA Moscow in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as CSKA Moscow defy the odds to beat Nizhny Novgorod 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
CSKA Moscow beat Nizhny Novgorod 1-2 at Sovcombank Arena, Regular Season - 29, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nizhny Novgorod 1.02 xG and CSKA Moscow 0.93 xG, a combined 1.95. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. CSKA Moscow outscored their 0.93 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nizhny Novgorod attack 0.90 / defence 1.00 against CSKA Moscow attack 0.87 / defence 0.84, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nizhny Novgorod 37% | Draw 31% | CSKA Moscow 32%, with Nizhny Novgorod to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual CSKA Moscow win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 58% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nizhny Novgorod 55%, CSKA Moscow 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nizhny Novgorod's trading profile (58 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did.
CSKA Moscow's trading profile (58 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, CSKA Moscow arrived the stronger side — 1.79 PPG against 0.90. The form guide was vindicated by the result.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.