Lokomotiv 1-0 Krylia Sovetov – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Lokomotiv at 45% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Lokomotiv vs Krylia Sovetov encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Lokomotiv and Krylia Sovetov meet at RZD Arena in Premier League (matchday 11). This fixture gets under way on Sunday 6 October 2024 at 15:30 UK time.
Form
Lokomotiv (all games): 8W 0D 2L across their last 10 — 2.40 PPG. Last five: W L W W W. They are averaging 2.50 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Lokomotiv's home record over their last 10 home games: 6W 3D 1L (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Krylia Sovetov's record over their last 10 games: 3W 2D 5L (1.10 PPG). Last five: W L W D D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
On the road, Krylia Sovetov have gone 3W 1D 6L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Form favours the hosts. Lokomotiv's 2.40 PPG return is 1.30 points per game ahead of Krylia Sovetov's 1.10 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated the 5 H2H matches in our data: 1 wins for Lokomotiv, 0 for Krylia Sovetov and 4 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 25 Nov 2023, ended Lokomotiv 3–3 Krylia Sovetov — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Lokomotiv — key trading statistics (last 40 games, 19 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; of the 8 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
Krylia Sovetov — key trading statistics (last 40 games, 19 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 63% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 69% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Lokomotiv 65% and Krylia Sovetov 55% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lokomotiv 58% | Krylia Sovetov 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lokomotiv 1.63 xG and Krylia Sovetov 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lokomotiv attack 1.281 / defence 1.140 | Krylia Sovetov attack 0.871 / defence 0.950. League average goals — home 1.338 / away 1.203. Lokomotiv carry an above-average attack rating of 1.281 — their 1.63 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Data: built from Lokomotiv's last 40 games and Krylia Sovetov's last 40.
Result probabilities: Lokomotiv 45% | Draw 29% | Krylia Sovetov 26%. Fair-value odds: Lokomotiv 2.21 | Draw 3.47 | Krylia Sovetov 3.86. Lokomotiv hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS Yes probability 58% | Total xG 2.82. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.82 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 58% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Lokomotiv as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Lokomotiv if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.82 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Lokomotiv's last 10 home games and Krylia Sovetov's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Lokomotiv 60% (last 10 home games) | Krylia Sovetov 50% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lokomotiv vs Krylia Sovetov | Competition: Premier League, matchday 11 | Venue: RZD Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 6 October 2024 at 15:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lokomotiv 45% | Draw 29% | Krylia Sovetov 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% (Under 46%) | BTTS Yes 58% (No 42%) | xG Lokomotiv 1.63 / Krylia Sovetov 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: Lokomotiv attack 1.281 / def 1.140 | Krylia Sovetov attack 0.871 / def 0.950 | league avg home 1.338 / away 1.203 • Poisson stance: Lokomotiv (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.63
Lokomotiv xG
Expected Goals
1.20
Krylia Sovetov xG
58%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Lokomotiv vs Krylia Sovetov FAQs
What time does Lokomotiv vs Krylia Sovetov kick off?
Lokomotiv vs Krylia Sovetov kicked off at 15:30 UK time on Sunday 6 October 2024 at RZD Arena.
What was the final score in Lokomotiv vs Krylia Sovetov?
Lokomotiv 1 - 0 Krylia Sovetov.
Where is Lokomotiv vs Krylia Sovetov being played?
The match is being played at RZD Arena.
What competition is Lokomotiv vs Krylia Sovetov part of?
Lokomotiv vs Krylia Sovetov is a Premier League fixture (matchday 11) (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Lokomotiv vs Krylia Sovetov?
Our statistical model gives Lokomotiv a 45% chance of winning, Krylia Sovetov a 26% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Lokomotiv the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lokomotiv vs Krylia Sovetov?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Lokomotiv and Krylia Sovetov will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Lokomotiv vs Krylia Sovetov have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Lokomotiv's attack at 1.28x the league average against Krylia Sovetov's defence at 0.95x — combine the two and it projects 1.63 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Krylia Sovetov's attack (0.87x) against Lokomotiv's defence (1.14x) — and the away total comes out at 1.20.
These ratings are built from Lokomotiv's last 40 games and Krylia Sovetov's last 40 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 1-0 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lokomotiv Win
45%
2.21
29%
3.47
26%
3.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.63
Lokomotiv xG
Total xG
2.82
1.20
Krylia Sovetov xG
2.21
45%
Home win
3.47
29%
Draw
3.86
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.39
Clean Sheet
30%
3.30
20%
5.09
Win to Nil
14%
7.29
5%
19.67
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 7.1 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 11.6 | 6.9 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 9.4 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 5.1 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Lokomotiv vs Krylia Sovetov Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Lokomotiv vs Krylia Sovetov?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Lokomotiv and Krylia Sovetov expected to score?
The model projects 1.63 expected goals for Lokomotiv and 1.20 for Krylia Sovetov, a combined total of 2.82.
How confident is the prediction model for Lokomotiv vs Krylia Sovetov?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Lokomotiv's recent record stands at 22W 11D 7L from 40 games, a 1.92 PPG return, with W-L-W-W-W in the last five.
Krylia Sovetov, meanwhile, have gone 14W 10D 16L across 40 games — 1.30 PPG, with W-L-W-D-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Lokomotiv by 0.62 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Krylia Sovetov heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Lokomotiv have managed 11W 6D 2L from their last 19 home games — 2.05 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Krylia Sovetov's away record stands at 5W 3D 11L across their last 19 away games, a 0.95 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lokomotiv come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Lokomotiv are averaging 1.92 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; Krylia Sovetov are on 1.38 scored and 1.45 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lokomotiv have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Last 40 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lokomotiv
Blended
Krylia Sovetov
Blended
Lokomotiv (Home) vs Krylia Sovetov (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Lokomotiv
Blended
Krylia Sovetov
Blended
❓ Lokomotiv vs Krylia Sovetov Form FAQs
What form are Lokomotiv and Krylia Sovetov in coming into this match?
Lokomotiv have gone 22W 11D 7L in their last 40 games (1.92 PPG), while Krylia Sovetov have gone 14W 10D 16L in their last 40 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lokomotiv at home or Krylia Sovetov away?
Lokomotiv's home record (2.05 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lokomotiv at home: 2.05 PPG; Krylia Sovetov away: 0.95 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between Lokomotiv and Krylia Sovetov, the earliest from May 2022. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent was as recently as 16 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Krylia Sovetov won Krylia Sovetov 5-1 Lokomotiv on 28 Mar 2025, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Lokomotiv have gone 1W 4D 0L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Krylia Sovetov — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Lokomotiv
6
Draws
2
Krylia Sovetov
Recent Meetings
❓ Lokomotiv vs Krylia Sovetov H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Lokomotiv and Krylia Sovetov?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Lokomotiv have won 2, Krylia Sovetov have won 2, and 6 have been drawn.
When did Lokomotiv and Krylia Sovetov last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 16 September 2026: Lokomotiv 1-1 Krylia Sovetov.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Lokomotiv are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Krylia Sovetov are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lokomotiv 58%, Krylia Sovetov 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Lokomotiv) and 58% (Krylia Sovetov).
On the defensive side: Lokomotiv keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Krylia Sovetov in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lokomotiv home games / Krylia Sovetov away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Lokomotiv vs Krylia Sovetov Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Lokomotiv and Krylia Sovetov matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Lokomotiv's games and 58% of Krylia Sovetov's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Lokomotiv and Krylia Sovetov matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Lokomotiv's recent games and 58% of Krylia Sovetov's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lokomotiv and Krylia Sovetov matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 68% of Lokomotiv's recent matches and 63% of Krylia Sovetov's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Lokomotiv edge out Krylia Sovetov 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lokomotiv beat Krylia Sovetov 1-0 at RZD Arena, Regular Season - 11, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lokomotiv 1.63 xG and Krylia Sovetov 1.20 xG, a combined 2.82. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Krylia Sovetov landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lokomotiv attack 1.28 / defence 1.14 against Krylia Sovetov attack 0.87 / defence 0.95, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lokomotiv 45% | Draw 29% | Krylia Sovetov 26%, with Lokomotiv to win its most likely call at 45%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lokomotiv 58%, Krylia Sovetov 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lokomotiv's trading profile (40 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.
Krylia Sovetov's trading profile (40 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Lokomotiv arrived the stronger side — 1.92 PPG against 1.30. Form held, and they took the win. Lokomotiv (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.16 average — tighter than their form line. Krylia Sovetov (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.